Machado Trade Revisited. What If...

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Considering how long the O's waited to trade Manny, I think they got as much or more than could have been expected - and I'm saying that as someone who thinks Diaz is probably a little overrated.  Otoh, I think Kremer is more underrated than Diaz is overrated.  And Bannon seems to be exactly the type of prospect that I would have gone after if I were running the show <shudders>.  And Pop's a nice little add-on.  

Spot on. There was no real bidding war when we traded Machado. I think we did pretty good. Pretty sure Kremer led the minors in strikeouts. 

[Justinlstn]

Luke Weaver is going to be very good pitcher. He had 2 bad months in April and June. That was his first full season as a starting pitcher.

[Bonecrusher52]

1 year rental > 3 months rental

[NJOriolesFan]

The other thing about this it seemed at the time that it was a given that Machado would definitely become a free agent.  I'm pretty sure the hope is from the Cardinals that Goldschmidt will fall in love with the St Louis Cardinals organization and fans and he will stay with the Cardinals as they will and have in the past not been afraid to pony up some serious offers to extend or bring in free agents.  The Cards may not be looking at it as "just a rental"

 

[webbrick2010]

I know the Manny lovers will disagree but Goldschmidt is the better player for the next one year

[CallMeBrooksie]

9 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I know the Manny lovers will disagree but Goldschmidt is the better player for the next one year

Goldy is a great player and he could very well outplay Manny next year, but it doesn't take some blind homer to think that Manny will be more valuable.

[wildbillhiccup]

15 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I know the Manny lovers will disagree but Goldschmidt is the better player for the next one year

This simply isn't true when you factor in the position they each play. If Machado had been traded during the off season (as he should have been) then he would have commanded a similar package. Goldshmidt's also considerably older than Machado so you're also overlooking the appeal of trading for Machado to try and woo him and convince him to sign a long term deal. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Bonecrusher52 said:

1 year rental > 3 months rental

Of course it is, but the point I was trying to make in my original post was that this is the type of package the Orioles could have gotten if they traded Machado in the off season (when they should have). 

[wildbillhiccup]

25 minutes ago, NJOriolesFan said:

The other thing about this it seemed at the time that it was a given that Machado would definitely become a free agent.  I'm pretty sure the hope is from the Cardinals that Goldschmidt will fall in love with the St Louis Cardinals organization and fans and he will stay with the Cardinals as they will and have in the past not been afraid to pony up some serious offers to extend or bring in free agents.  The Cards may not be looking at it as "just a rental"

 

That's not really a solid argument because teams would have been much more likely to offer Machado a long term deal because he's considerably younger than Goldschmidt. If the Cardinals didn't offer Pujols a huge long term contract I doubt they offer Goldschmidt one. 

[MDtransplant757]

 

Manny should have been traded during the offseason. Yeah, and ownership wouldn't allow it minus a stupid overpay. So we gave up half a year of service time, unlike Arizona. Arizona got back a Starter with good upside, a catcher who was blocked by Yadi and some guy whose bat looks good but is a year behind schedule. However, I'd argue that overall, the Orioles got the better deal. Dean Kermer lead all of MiLB in K's this year, hence his rising stock. Diaz has been the OF bat and glove we've been missing since Markakis went to Atlanta. Pop could be a back end BP piece and Valeria is INF depth that we needed. All players listed above have total about 24 years total of service time added up. So we got 24 years of service time between all four of these players for one half year of one player, and Arizona got potentially 18 years, with the best asset of the trade having 4 years left. Would we have gotten more for Manny if we traded him in the offseason? Possibly, but there wasn't that insane desperation that we saw with LAD and them trying to rip the choker monkey off their back that's been there since the Reagan administration and a hole at SS. Kermer alone has as much upside as Weaver does, plus we have him for 2 more years. Diaz made great strides with his bat, and Pop went from A ball to AA. All things considered, I think we got the better deal for MM than AZ did for Goldy

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Spot on. There was no real bidding war when we traded Machado. I think we did pretty good. Pretty sure Kremer led the minors in strikeouts. 

Again, he should have been traded in the off season. This isn't an "all things considered" evaluation. My main point is that if they didn't passively aggressively shop him during the Winter Meetings and make a trade demand so ridiculous (we want two MLB read SPs) that no one could meet they could have gotten a better package. Also, asking for two MLB ready SPs, when they ended up signing Cashner and Cobb anyway, showed a real lack of long term vision by the club. Yes they got a decent return for trading Machado when they did, but that doesn't overlook the fact that the whole situation was completely mismanaged by someone. It was a wasted opportunity. Same with the push for international money with the other trade. I mean, did anyone actually ask the question "can we sign these guys (i.e., the Mesa brothers) before they put the plan in place? It sure doesn't seem like it. 

The person I really feel bad for is Elias because the Orioles let a dead man walking GM and/or Brady Anderson trade Schoop and Gausman. There was no sense of urgency to trade either of those players. Those trade chips should have been left for the new GM. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

 

Manny should have been traded during the offseason. Yeah, and ownership wouldn't allow it minus a stupid overpay. So we gave up half a year of service time, unlike Arizona. Arizona got back a Starter with good upside, a catcher who was blocked by Yadi and some guy whose bat looks good but is a year behind schedule. However, I'd argue that overall, the Orioles got the better deal. Dean Kermer lead all of MiLB in K's this year, hence his rising stock. Diaz has been the OF bat and glove we've been missing since Markakis went to Atlanta. Pop could be a back end BP piece and Valeria is INF depth that we needed. All players listed above have total about 24 years total of service time added up. So we got 24 years of service time between all four of these players for one half year of one player, and Arizona got potentially 18 years, with the best asset of the trade having 4 years left. Would we have gotten more for Manny if we traded him in the offseason? Possibly, but there wasn't that insane desperation that we saw with LAD and them trying to rip the choker monkey off their back that's been there since the Reagan administration and a hole at SS. Kermer alone has as much upside as Weaver does, plus we have him for 2 more years. Diaz made great strides with his bat, and Pop went from A ball to AA. All things considered, I think we got the better deal for MM than AZ did for Goldy

How would you feel if Flaherty / Kelly had headlined a Machado trade? Because that's entirely possible. Before the season started I'm sure the Cardinals valued Weaver more than Flaherty. Tyler O'Neil might have been in play as well. They Cards really had a significant need at 3B going into the 2018 season and were linked to Machado several times. They were also more comfortable with their 1B situation because I don't think they had yet realized how terrible of a fielder J.Martinez really is. But rather than looking towards the future I'm sure the Orioles asked for something ridiculous like C.Martinez and Weaver. 

[MDtransplant757]

34 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

How would you feel if Flaherty / Kelly had headlined a Machado trade? Because that's entirely possible. Before the season started I'm sure the Cardinals valued Weaver more than Flaherty. Tyler O'Neil might have been in play as well. They Cards really had a significant need at 3B going into the 2018 season and were linked to Machado several times. They were also more comfortable with their 1B situation because I don't think they had yet realized how terrible of a fielder J.Martinez really is. But rather than looking towards the future I'm sure the Orioles asked for something ridiculous like C.Martinez and Weaver. 

I would be happy, but i think that falls under the "overpay" territory that ownership would have accepted. If the Phillies weren't willing to part with Sixto Sanchez, then I have a feeling St. Louis wasn't willing to part with Flaherty. 

[MDtransplant757]

That and St. Louis fell out of the race for MM at the deadline pretty quickly too. 

[weams]

10 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Given that, yes.  But the idea behind this thread is that the Orioles could have gotten even more had they traded Machado in the off season.  So... -shrug- we shall find out five years from now.

Of course they might have, but Manny had a Huge first half. Big second guessing here.