O's trade international bonus pool money for SS Drew Jackson

[sportsfan8703]

I’m thinking Jackson and Martin stick with the big club all next year. Jackson’s versatility might hurt him with the initial starting SS battle. Development wise, will we try and make Jackson some type of “Super Sub” or will we let him and Marting focus solely on SS?  Hopefully one of them would grab the job. 

Its the offseason, the roster will likely change. But I see OD as;

OF: Mancini, Mullins, Stewart (Rickard will play a lot). 

IF: Nunez, Martin, Villar, Davis

Ca: Sisco

DH: Trumbo

Bench: Rickard, Wynns, Jackson, 

Last spot: Wilkerson, Peterson, Ruiz, or likely an extra bullpen arm, which would increase the need for Jackson to play LF/RF. 

I’d like to have Jace Peterson on the team next year. His versatility would allow the young guys the chance to focus on developing as much as possible into their likely long term role. We’re definitely not in win now mode, so that should be the objective. Peterson just might be a guy we put on waivers and bring back a few times next year. 

[Luke-OH]

16 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So what you are saying, in it's most simplistic form, is?

Being good at pulling the ball is good, but not as good as putting it in the air.  But being bad at putting it in the air is worse than being bad at pulling the ball. 

Higher peak, bigger valley. 

So you can develop hitters to be flyball hitters but they better be good at it, because if they are worse you get a worse hitter than those who can pull the ball at even a below average rate (who are incidentally about average).

I could be completely wrong, but I try.

Ran some more numbers, my instinct was wrong.

The worst indicator of performance among the things I looked at (true FB%, Swinging Strike%, and Pull%) was having a low pull rate (basically hitting to all fields). It hurts players more than a high swinging strike rate or a low true FB%.

As far as indicating positive performance, high true FB rate has the strongest benefit, then a high pull rate, and finally a low swinging strike rate.

The fact a low swinging strike rate didn’t correlate with performance as highly as the other two factors was a surprise to me.

Just a note: When I say high or low I mean one standard deviation above or below the mean of MLB players with >400 PA in 2018.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m thinking Jackson and Martin stick with the big club all next year. Jackson’s versatility might hurt him with the initial starting SS battle. Development wise, will we try and make Jackson some type of “Super Sub” or will we let him and Marting focus solely on SS?  Hopefully one of them would grab the job. 

Its the offseason, the roster will likely change. But I see OD as;

OF: Mancini, Mullins, Stewart (Rickard will play a lot). 

IF: Nunez, Martin, Villar, Davis

Ca: Sisco

DH: Trumbo

Bench: Rickard, Wynns, Jackson, 

Last spot: Wilkerson, Peterson, Ruiz, or likely an extra bullpen arm, which would increase the need for Jackson to play LF/RF. 

I’d like to have Jace Peterson on the team next year. His versatility would allow the young guys the chance to focus on developing as much as possible into their likely long term role. We’re definitely not in win now mode, so that should be the objective. Peterson just might be a guy we put on waivers and bring back a few times next year. 

I think the O's add a catcher that pushes Sisco to the minors.   I think they add a right fielder that may pushes Stewart to the minors to begin the season.   Stewart is in line for a promotion to left when Trumbo is traded and Mancini moves to DH/1B.

 I think Jackson, Valera, and Wilkerson compete for a utility spot in ST.  Valera and Wilkerson have options which gives Jackson an edge if he can show he has value.

Rickard is needed as a platoon partner with Mullins in CF and a late game defensive replacement for Mancini in left. Rickard has options so he could be in the minors at some point.

When Villar is traded in July, 2B opens for Valera or Wilkerson .

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Football, basketball and hockey players have managed to get both larger and faster.

Why would baseball be different?

Speed matters less in baseball.  In fact, fast players tend to steal more bases which often reduces overall runs, and they might also get hurt more.  

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I’d rather see them go to four strikes than stop the shifting.  The prevalence of strikeouts is a far bigger issue.

In 1887 they went with four strikes for an out and five balls for a walk, changed from three strikes and six balls.   The K rate went up from 2.02 to 2.80, and the walk rate also went up, but only by about 0.2 per nine. No, I don't fully understand what went on there, it seems counter-intuitive.  Runs went from 5.47/game to 6.34.

In 1888 they went back to three strikes and Ks went up by almost a third, about a full strikeout per nine, while walks fell to about 2.2.

In 1889 walks went to four balls, and that caused a spike over over a walk per nine, while Ks dipped just a bit.

The biggest impact of that era was the 1893 move from a pitcher's box at 50' to a mound/rubber at 60'6".  Runs went from 5.1 in '92 to 6.6 in '93 and 7.4 (highest since founding of NL in 1876) in '94. The foul-strike rule in the early 1900s also had a pretty big impact, which helped the 1900-1919 era be very low-scoring.

[Rene88]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's add a catcher that pushes Sisco to the minors.   I think they add a right fielder that may pushes Stewart to the minors to begin the season.   Stewart is in line for a promotion to left when Trumbo is traded and Mancini moves to DH/1B.

 I think Jackson, Valera, and Wilkerson compete for a utility spot in ST.  Valera and Wilkerson have options which gives Jackson an edge if he can show he has value.

Rickard is needed as a platoon partner with Mullins in CF and a late game defensive replacement for Mancini in left. Rickard has options so he could be in the minors at some point.

When Villar is traded in July, 2B opens for Valera or Wilkerson .

Talk about an awe-uninspiring team lol. Excellent analysis though.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Ran the numbers some more, my instinct was wrong.

The worst indicator of performance among the things I looked at (true FB%, Swinging Strike%, and Pull%) was having a low pull rate (basically hitting to all fields). It hurts players more than a high swinging strike rate or a low true FB%.

As far as indicating positive performance, high true FB has the strongest benefit, then a high pull rate, and then a low swinging strike rate.

The fact a low swinging strike rate didn’t correlate with performance as highly as the other two factors was a surprise to me.

Your last point goes to show that a batters eye and a batters swing (although physiologically connected) are two very different skills.

You didn't include numbers but I am guessing from your qualitative statement at the end that low SS% was significantly lower than the other two.

It's funny because on broadcasts you always hear, particularly with power hitters in a slump, that an opposite field gap hit is a sign of good things to come.  I wonder if there is truth to that or that is just an anachronistic idiom that came to be for some reason.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's add a catcher that pushes Sisco to the minors.   I think they add a right fielder that may pushes Stewart to the minors to begin the season.   Stewart is in line for a promotion to left when Trumbo is traded and Mancini moves to DH/1B.

 I think Jackson, Valera, and Wilkerson compete for a utility spot in ST.  Valera and Wilkerson have options which gives Jackson an edge if he can show he has value.

Rickard is needed as a platoon partner with Mullins in CF and a late game defensive replacement for Mancini in left. Rickard has options so he could be in the minors at some point.

When Villar is traded in July, 2B opens for Valera or Wilkerson .

I agree there will be some real major league additions to this roster.  OF and MI make the most sense to me.

That said as foforyour scenarios I thinkthat fine given present personnel but I see the team trying to add players all over the place.  Peterson and Nunez weren't even with the team last year at the beginning of the year.  I dont see this year as being any different.

[Luke-OH]

42 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Your last point goes to show that a batters eye and a batters swing (although physiologically connected) are two very different skills.

You didn't include numbers but I am guessing from your qualitative statement at the end that low SS% was significantly lower than the other two.

It's funny because on broadcasts you always hear, particularly with power hitters in a slump, that an opposite field gap hit is a sign of good things to come.  I wonder if there is truth to that or that is just an anachronistic idiom that came to be for some reason.

I think things change in baseball. That may have been true at one point but it doesn’t appear to be true today. Now there are exceptions, Yelich was awesome despite not hitting many balls in the air. Soto was awesome despite not regularly pulling the ball. Khris Davis was great despite swinging and missing a lot.

Low SS% was just a little lower than high Pull%, high True FB% was significantly above those two.

[jerios55]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's add a catcher that pushes Sisco to the minors.   I think they add a right fielder that may pushes Stewart to the minors to begin the season.   Stewart is in line for a promotion to left when Trumbo is traded and Mancini moves to DH/1B. 

 I think Jackson, Valera, and Wilkerson compete for a utility spot in ST.  Valera and Wilkerson have options which gives Jackson an edge if he can show he has value.

Rickard is needed as a platoon partner with Mullins in CF and a late game defensive replacement for Mancini in left. Rickard has options so he could be in the minors at some point.

When Villar is traded in July, 2B opens for Valera or Wilkerson . 

Didn't they say Drew Jackson has played some CF?  If that's the case, is Rickard truly needed?  Not that I'm saying I'm against it, but a spot could be opened if someone else makes a better case for the roster.

edit: to be clear, I'm just saying we know what Rickard is and Jackson and _____ could be worth giving more playing time to at this point.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Didn't they say Drew Jackson has played some CF?  If that's the case, is Rickard truly needed?  Not that I'm saying I'm against it, but a spot could be opened if someone else makes a better case for the roster.

In 4 minor league seasons Jackson has played 8 games in CF.   I don't think that indicates enough to know anything about him in center.

[jerios55]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In 4 minor league seasons Jackson has played 8 games in CF.   I don't think that indicates enough to know anything about him in center.

I can agree to that.  Although, we've had Trumbo in the OF a lot, so I think I could handle Jackson learning there in a 2019 type season. 

I won't be upset if they keep Rickard.  Nothing against him at all.  Just hoping they get other guys on the field more.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

It's funny because on broadcasts you always hear, particularly with power hitters in a slump, that an opposite field gap hit is a sign of good things to come.  I wonder if there is truth to that or that is just an anachronistic idiom that came to be for some reason.

Pre-Ruth the overwhelming consensus was that power hitting was a terrible strategy.  Trying to hit home runs was the ham-fisted tactic of big oafs who didn't have the mental or physical acuity to excel in scientific baseball.  Scientific baseball being defined as bunting, hitting-and-running, place hitting, hitting behind the runners, etc.  If you want to go 0-for-4 with four flyouts just try to drive the ball a long way.

Ruth turned all that on its head.  But in baseball it takes lifetimes for some ingrained practices to wash out.  There are still folks who lament the death of the complete game, and blame it on weak, lazy millenials or something.  As late as the 1950s there were still players who hit .300, walked a lot, and had about as much power as Cesar Izturis.

My guess is that some of the commentator speak about this is just what they heard from coaches in 1977, who heard it from coaches in 1937 who heard it from players in the deadball era. 

[DrungoHazewood]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In 4 minor league seasons Jackson has played 8 games in CF.   I don't think that indicates enough to know anything about him in center.

Having a fast shortstop playing center can't be much worse than having a slow first baseman in left.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m thinking Jackson and Martin stick with the big club all next year. Jackson’s versatility might hurt him with the initial starting SS battle. Development wise, will we try and make Jackson some type of “Super Sub” or will we let him and Marting focus solely on SS?  Hopefully one of them would grab the job. 

 

I’d like to have Jace Peterson on the team next year. His versatility would allow the young guys the chance to focus on developing as much as possible into their likely long term role. We’re definitely not in win now mode, so that should be the objective. Peterson just might be a guy we put on waivers and bring back a few times next year. 

Middle infield is such a black hole in our system, I agree it will be worth it to keep both players. I couldn't care less if we bring back Peterson. If someone grabs him, there will be other Jace Peterson's available.

I don't want Jackson playing outfield. I want all these guys getting reps in the infield. I would rather see him at 3B with that arm if he needs a spot while Villar is on the team.

Unfortunately, Nunez, Jackson, and Martin are all RHB so a platoon option isn't really viable.