O's trade international bonus pool money for SS Drew Jackson

[coe76]

As a high school coach I try to drill into my kids heads that they should hit the ball where it is pitched.  Outside pitch go the opposite way, inside pitch turn on it, middle go middle.  Real power is rare at my high school level so an all fields approach works best.  I ask them, which is better, a double to right or a double to left.  Most say one to left.  I tell them, who cares, it is a double.  React to the pitch and drive it.  Players at the pro level obviously may have a different approach.  I think we all agree a hitter should use the approach that maximizes their potential.

[Jammer7]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must have missed the part where Manny struggled last year.   I was under the mistaken impression that he had his best offensive season.  

That said, his pull rate was lower last year, and I agree he’s at his best when hitting to all fields.   He’s one of those rare guys who has power to all fields.    

I did not check his stats, but I recall times last year when I felt he was being selfish and trying to put up numbers for his FA year when a single to right would have scored two runs. Instead we get a pop up, modest fly ball to left or a strikeout. I don’t have the time right now to look up his week to week stats, but that is my recollection. Everyone struggles at times. But his best approach was to maintain integrity to all fields. 

[Ohfan67]

25 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I’m talking about the pro game. There is debate about how to teach kids to hit. Do you teach a swing and approach that will benefit them when they mature or do you teach them a swing that will put more balls in play which will lead to better results as a kid. It’s a tough question and I don’t coach kids so I don’t really have the answer. 

As far as the pull happy strategy, it’s important to remember that 50% pull rate is extremely high, 46% is a standard deviation above the mean in MLB. So even the most pull happy guys go the other way or up the middle half the time. But that’s not the goal, a good AB is taking pitches they can’t turn on and either walking or pulling a mistake. A guy with average power can hit 40 HR if they can pull enough balls in the air. So of course if you have two strikes it’s good to poke things the other way, the best hitters can do that and turn on mistakes.

You have provided great information in this thread so I don’t mean to be a negative jerk, but you have used one standard deviation from the mean several times in This thread. Being one standard deviation from the mean is statistically  insignificant. Two SD gets you around the “magical” .05 level statistical difference. 

[Redskins Rick]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must have missed the part where Manny struggled last year.   I was under the mistaken impression that he had his best offensive season.  

That said, his pull rate was lower last year, and I agree he’s at his best when hitting to all fields.   He’s one of those rare guys who has power to all fields.    

His numbers were really good. But, his WAR was only 2.9, so he was only 3 times better than a replacement player. Leaves room for improvement.

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, coe76 said:

As a high school coach I try to drill into my kids heads that they should hit the ball where it is pitched.  Outside pitch go the opposite way, inside pitch turn on it, middle go middle.  Real power is rare at my high school level so an all fields approach works best.  I ask them, which is better, a double to right or a double to left.  Most say one to left.  I tell them, who cares, it is a double.  React to the pitch and drive it.  Players at the pro level obviously may have a different approach.  I think we all agree a hitter should use the approach that maximizes their potential.

Agreed. Here in Florida, and in higher end travel ball, shifts are being employed to take away tendencies. Sad. Last spring, my son had around 8-10 lined shots in the right center gap that were caught. 

I have derailed this thread, sorry. But I guess my original point was that there is an inevitable transition for almost all hitters into pro ball. Jackson is seemingly making a transition, and perhaps there is more he can do to contribute and be a late bloomer. The “Stanford swing” just made me laugh and cringe at the same time. 

[Jammer7]

8 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

His numbers were really good. But, his WAR was only 2.9, so he was only 3 times better than a replacement player. Leaves room for improvement.

Well, considering his WAR was down from around 7 in both 2015 and 2016, I would say his pull happy approach in both 2017 and 2018 does indeed leave room for improvement. Each time he got hotter, he hit ball with authority to all fields. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

His numbers were really good. But, his WAR was only 2.9, so he was only 3 times better than a replacement player. Leaves room for improvement.

I know this is just a lighthearted remark, but I need to point out that (1) Manny’s 2.9 WAR was in less than 60% of a full season with the O’s, (2) WAR is not a measure of offense alone, which is the only thing affected by pull hitting, and (3) a replacement player is worth 0.0, not 1.0 as you appear to assume.    

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Well, considering his WAR was down from around 7 in both 2015 and 2016, I would say his pull happy approach in both 2017 and 2018 does indeed leave room for improvement. Each time he got hotter, he hit ball with authority to all fields. 

I find it very hard to say a player with 37 Home Runs, 107 RBIs, and .905 OPS leaves room for improvement.

2018	25	TOT	MLB	162	709	632	84	188	35	3	37	107	14	2	70	104	.297	.367	.538	.905	146	340	26	2	0	5	18	*65	AS

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I know this is just a lighthearted remark, but I need to point out that (1) Manny’s 2.9 WAR was in less than 60% of a full season with the O’s, (2) WAR is not a measure of offense alone, which is the only thing affected by pull hitting, and (3) a replacement player is worth 0.0, not 1.0 as you appear to assume.    

Thanks.

So help me understand this. A 2.9 isn't almost 3 times better than a replacement player?????

He posted a 2.8 with the Dodgers, so doesn't that average out?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Well, considering his WAR was down from around 7 in both 2015 and 2016, I would say his pull happy approach in both 2017 and 2018 does indeed leave room for improvement. Each time he got hotter, he hit ball with authority to all fields. 

WAR includes both offense and defense.    In 2018, Manny set career highs in BA, OBP, SLG, HR (tie), RBI, OPS, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+.   It was easily his best offensive season by any reasonable measure.    Defense is irrelevant to the point we are discussing.   

[Frobby]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Thanks.

So help me understand this. A 2.9 isn't almost 3 times better than a replacement player?????

He posted a 2.8 with the Dodgers, so doesn't that average out?

It’s a cumulative statistic.   2.9 with the O’s + 2.8 with the Dodgers = 5.7 wins above replacement for the season.   

I don’t think WAR really works to say “this player is X times better than that player.”     5.7 divided by 0.0 would mean Manny is infinitely better than a replacement player.   Obviously that’s not literally true.  

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s a cumulative statistic.   2.9 with the O’s + 2.8 with the Dodgers = 5.7 wins above replacement for the season.   

I don’t think WAR really works to say “this player is X times better than that player.”     5.7 divided by 0.0 would mean Manny is infinitely better than a replacement player.   Obviously that’s not literally true.  

thanks for the stat education.

[Jammer7]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

WAR includes both offense and defense.    In 2018, Manny set career highs in BA, OBP, SLG, HR (tie), RBI, OPS, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+.   It was easily his best offensive season by any reasonable measure.    Defense is irrelevant to the point we are discussing.   

I am aware of that. According to Baseball Reference, his oWAR is in 2015 and 2016, with 5.7 and 5.2 respectively. Whereas last year, he was 6.6. I get what you are saying, and certainly any WAR measurement is not the whole picture. I was making a point, albeit a lighthearted one. 

Thanks for the education, seriously.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml

[Jammer7]

21 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I find it very hard to say a player with 37 Home Runs, 107 RBIs, and .905 OPS leaves room for improvement.

2018	25	TOT	MLB	162	709	632	84	188	35	3	37	107	14	2	70	104	.297	.367	.538	.905	146	340	26	2	0	5	18	*65	AS

Perhaps. It was more in his approach at times, than his numbers. Numbers alone don’t make a championship player. They do, however, get paid. But, his big swing and misses at Chris Sale’s offerings in the final at bat of the 2018 World Series will forever make me laugh at his lack of maturity and selfish approach. 

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Perhaps. It was more in his approach at times, than his numbers. Numbers alone don’t make a championship player. They do, however, get paid. But, his big swing and misses at Chris Sale’s offerings in the final at bat of the 2018 World Series will forever make me laugh at his lack of maturity and selfish approach. 

Lots of great ball players have bad world series. Look at Kershaw, the poster child for bad WS stats.