New Rankings with Rule 5 guys

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think Sedlock ever fell from anywhere.  He's been at the bottom since he laced em up.  I understand the draft is a huge crap shoot out of the first few picks and Sedlock was picked later in the first round but I don't think that dude is ever gonna see the bigs.

He had good stuff, his sinker sitting 93-94mph t96 with two above average breaking balls as a starter in 2016, but the jump from 60 IP to 128 IP from 2015 to 2016 (also threw a lot of pitches per start in college) and came out in 2017 and couldn't hold his stuff. Missed time with arm issues, came out in 2018 with a really slow arm. It's hard to imagine there isn't something structurally wrong with his arm or shoulder. I agree he's a long shot at this point. 

[now]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Here are little blurbs on some of the new guys on the list.

Richie Martin and Drew Jackson - see my Rule 5 Preference List

JC Escarra - athletic 1B, above average defense there, probably could handle the COF positions as well. Very old for the level in 2018, but shows an efficient, leveraged swing and good feel for the barrel with above average power. Will have to see how he handles advanced pitching and there isn't much margin for error for 1B without huge power.

Robert Neustrom - COF, chance to be an average defender, plus LH raw power, will need to tighten up the swing to hit advanced pitching and get to the power in-game.

Ryan Conroy - Was 90-92 as a starter at Elon, not sure what his velocity is in relief, but it plays, misses bats on the plate. Live arm, athletic guy, some projection left in the body. Slider is the best pitch, it flashes, could be plus eventually. 

Jake Zebron - HS guy, up to 95-96 with the FB, projectable frame, also throws a curveball and throws strikes. Not sure the quality of the CB or if there are other offspeed pitches, but there's enough for a speculative 35.

Mason McCoy - The more I watch him, the defense stands out, he's not a toolsy defender, doesn't make the spectacular play, but can make the tough play consistently at 2B and SS. The bat is pretty light, but I could see a Steve Wilkerson who can handle SS eventually and that would be a useful player.

Martin Cervenka - has been slow to develop, the Indians gave up on him, but didn't have much competition as an amateur so it makes sense that he'd develop late. Shed the org player label in 2018. The old player development regime really liked him. He adjusted his swing and approach this year and started getting to his above average raw power in game by pulling the ball more and getting it into the air. The big question is whether the hit tool is capable of making the jump to MLB, or if it's just a AAA bat. 

@Luke-OH and @Tony-OH, with all that goes into your rankings and writeups, do you think Elias and co. could or would make use of any of it? (And what about the past regime?) Or do they just prefer to do their own evaluations in house?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

He had good stuff, his sinker sitting 93-94mph t96 with two above average breaking balls as a starter in 2016, but the jump from 60 IP to 128 IP from 2015 to 2016 (also threw a lot of pitches per start in college) and came out in 2017 and couldn't hold his stuff. Missed time with arm issues, came out in 2018 with a really slow arm. It's hard to imagine there isn't something structurally wrong with his arm or shoulder. I agree he's a long shot at this point. 

You are right, I forgot that he put up good numbers in 2016.  I liked the scouting reports I read.  

In your view, were they wrong to jump him from 60 innings to 128 innings in his first full year?  Or did overuse from college doom him from the start?

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, now said:

@Luke-OH and @Tony-OH, with all that goes into your rankings and writeups, do you think Elias and co. could or would make use of any of it? (And what about the past regime?) Or do they just prefer to do their own evaluations in house?

Teams evaluate their own players, most do a good job of it, teams have much more data than we do on the players. They know personality and injury history. They have Trackman and other tech at their fields and have access to all that data (man I'd love to see that data, it’d make my analysis a lot better).

Many Front offices do read local team blogs from what I’ve heard. 

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You are right, I forgot that he put up good numbers in 2016.  I liked the scouting reports I read.  

In your view, were they wrong to jump him from 60 innings to 128 innings in his first full year?  Or did overuse from college doom him from the start?

Who knows, pitchers are fragile, he may have gotten hurt anyway. And then there was the hole thing with him changing his delivery in the offseason that some team people blamed for his issues. I do know that some teams were scared away by his JR year usage though.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Teams evaluate their own players, most do a good job of it, teams have much more data than we do on the players. They know personality and injury history. They have Trackman and other tech at their fields and have access to all that data (man I'd love to see that data, it’d make my analysis a lot better).

Many Front offices do read local team blogs from what I’ve heard. 

Who knows, pitchers are fragile, he may have gotten hurt anyway. And then there was the hole thing with him changing his delivery in the offseason that some team people blamed for his issues. I do know that some teams were scared away by his JR year usage though.

 

As usual, thanks for the insight.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You are right, I forgot that he put up good numbers in 2016.  I liked the scouting reports I read.  

In your view, were they wrong to jump him from 60 innings to 128 innings in his first full year?  Or did overuse from college doom him from the start?

They all break.

[sportsfan8703]

@Luke-OHSo in terms of comparing our system to some of the top systems where are we lacking,

More prospects in the 55+ range?

In terms of depth, it seems better considering you can name 50 guys and make a list of guys left off, but compared to the top systems where are we lacking?  More guys in the 40+ range? Obviously international players.  

Just trying to get a sense of how we stack up compared to the good farm systems. 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OHSo in terms of comparing our system to some of the top systems where are we lacking,

More prospects in the 55+ range?

In terms of depth, it seems better considering you can name 50 guys and make a list of guys left off, but compared to the top systems where are we lacking?  More guys in the 40+ range? Obviously international players.  

Just trying to get a sense of how we stack up compared to the good farm systems. 

 

 

60s or better, that’s it, impact types. There are impact ceilings in the system but no one whose median projection is an impact player. It’s important because there are something like 30-50 60+ prospects by my estimation and none are Orioles. Prospect value doesn’t increase linearly so it really hurts to not have that type of player.

[now]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

60s or better, that’s it, impact types. There are impact ceilings in the system but no one whose median projection is an impact player. It’s important because there are something like 30-50 60+ prospects by my estimation and none are Orioles. Prospect value doesn’t increase linearly so it really hurts to not have that type of player.

On the bright side, that's only 1-2 per team on average, so it would only take a top pick or two to get back in the mix. Of course, some teams will be loaded with more than 1-2 already. 

[Ruzious]

I don't get how Blaine Knight (22 years old) is ranked 10th while Dean Kremer (22) is ranked 16th, and Brenan Hanifee (20) is ranked 19th.  Knight's skinny, but being skinny doesn't mean you're projectible.  If he was 19, I'd understand ranking him high, but he's 22 and hasn't done anything other than get hit for 10 innings at Aberdeen.  

[atomic]

20 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

 He had good stuff, his sinker sitting 93-94mph t96 with two above average breaking balls as a starter in 2016, but the jump from 60 IP to 128 IP from 2015 to 2016 (also threw a lot of pitches per start in college) and came out in 2017 and couldn't hold his stuff. Missed time with arm issues, came out in 2018 with a really slow arm. It's hard to imagine there isn't something structurally wrong with his arm or shoulder. I agree he's a long shot at this point. 

I feel like guys are overrated after their signing.  They get drafted in June.  Maybe get to a team in July and the season is over in a month and a half.  They pitch Ok at Aberdeen and people put them at the top of prospect lists for the team.  Seems silly.  And I said that at the time. If you are picked in the top 5 that might make sense but guys picked at the end of the first round?  Makes zero sense to me. 

Look at Grayson Rodriguez.  Pitched in Rookie ball for 19 innings and he is rated our 5th best prospect?  Come on prove something first to get rated that highly. 

[Rene88]

11 hours ago, weams said:

They all break.

Just like Rendon:) ha ha just teasing 

[Luke-OH]

On 12/17/2018 at 2:47 PM, atomic said:

I feel like guys are overrated after their signing.  They get drafted in June.  Maybe get to a team in July and the season is over in a month and a half.  They pitch Ok at Aberdeen and people put them at the top of prospect lists for the team.  Seems silly.  And I said that at the time. If you are picked in the top 5 that might make sense but guys picked at the end of the first round?  Makes zero sense to me. 

Look at Grayson Rodriguez.  Pitched in Rookie ball for 19 innings and he is rated our 5th best prospect?  Come on prove something first to get rated that highly. 

If you are scouting the stat lines, then that makes sense, but these players are extensively scouted as amateurs. Unless you wait until AA to rank a prospect, the stat line isn’t very reliable and even in AA/AAA it can fool you if the velocity or exit velocity for hitters is poor or they are old for the level.

Also for HS pitching prospects like Grayson frame, delivery, athleticism, velocity, and pitch quality/movement is much more important that results. I don’t rank based on debut stats anyway.

[TGO]

4 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I don't get how Blaine Knight (22 years old) is ranked 10th while Dean Kremer (22) is ranked 16th, and Brenan Hanifee (20) is ranked 19th.  Knight's skinny, but being skinny doesn't mean you're projectible.  If he was 19, I'd understand ranking him high, but he's 22 and hasn't done anything other than get hit for 10 innings at Aberdeen.  

Took me a minute to realize you were talking about MLB Pipeline's list. I think Pipeline puts a little too much emphasis on draft pedigree, and Knight was an overslot 3rd rounder while Kremer was a mid teens guy. Look at Tate, Grenier and Harvey also. On the flip side, Akin's a 2nd rounder and has put up numbers, and they have him at 11. So all in all their list just doesn't make a lot of sense.

They also have a 50 grade on everyone from #3 (Hall) to #13 (Martin) - that's a pretty big group.

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, TGO said:

Took me a minute to realize you were talking about MLB Pipeline's list. I think Pipeline puts a little too much emphasis on draft pedigree, and Knight was an overslot 3rd rounder while Kremer was a mid teens guy. Look at Tate, Grenier and Harvey also. On the flip side, Akin's a 2nd rounder and has put up numbers, and they have him at 11. So all in all their list just doesn't make a lot of sense.

They also have a 50 grade on everyone from #3 (Hall) to #13 (Martin) - that's a pretty big group.

Pipeline is going to pipeline.