New Rankings with Rule 5 guys

[sportsfan8703]

23 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

60s or better, that’s it, impact types. There are impact ceilings in the system but no one whose median projection is an impact player. It’s important because there are something like 30-50 60+ prospects by my estimation and none are Orioles. Prospect value doesn’t increase linearly so it really hurts to not have that type of player.

Thanks. So just out of curiosity I checked and only the #1 overall pick(Mize) was ranked a 60 in last year’s draft and the top international player was a 50(Mesa). Rankings by the much loved mlb pipeline. Which tells me that we still have some ways by next June/July, not that we’re in a rush to acquire top end talent. 

- The #1 in the amateur draft. Heck even the comp A pick and the 2nd rd pick. 

- The international market. Hopefully Elias could use his Astros roots for his first signing period. 

- Then trades of MLB talent. Hopefully some miracle brings us a good haul for some of our remaining chips. Givens, Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, and Villar. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks. So just out of curiosity I checked and only the #1 overall pick(Mize) was ranked a 60 in last year’s draft and the top international player was a 50(Mesa). Rankings by the much loved mlb pipeline. Which tells me that we still have some ways by next June/July, not that we’re in a rush to acquire top end talent. 

- The #1 in the amateur draft. Heck even the comp A pick and the 2nd rd pick. 

- The international market. Hopefully Elias could use his Astros roots for his first signing period. 

- Then trades of MLB talent. Hopefully some miracle brings us a good haul for some of our remaining chips. Givens, Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, and Villar. 

Comp Pick  B this season. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks. So just out of curiosity I checked and only the #1 overall pick(Mize) was ranked a 60 in last year’s draft and the top international player was a 50(Mesa). Rankings by the much loved mlb pipeline. Which tells me that we still have some ways by next June/July, not that we’re in a rush to acquire top end talent. 

- The #1 in the amateur draft. Heck even the comp A pick and the 2nd rd pick. 

- The international market. Hopefully Elias could use his Astros roots for his first signing period. 

- Then trades of MLB talent. Hopefully some miracle brings us a good haul for some of our remaining chips. Givens, Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, and Villar. 

There are future 60s every year in the international market, they’ll never grade out as such at 16 years old because there is just too much projection and risk and not enough game looks against quality competition for such a lofty grade. 

The top graded international players are always older players who scouts can assess with some reasonable level of certainty. 

The next 60 FV prospect in the Orioles system will likely be someone already in the system (Grayson or DL Hall most likely).

[Tony-OH]

On 12/16/2018 at 2:35 PM, Rene88 said:

Lots of good info in this thread, thanks. What in the world happened to Sedlock? I guess I missed what happened with him to fall from grace.

Sedlock had good stuff when I saw him at Aberdeen after getting drafted. He was 93-95 with tremendous sink and showed and average slider. From what I was told, he went home and started working with an old pitching coach who changed some things the Orioles wanted him to do.

When he came back that next year, his velocity was down an the sink was not as good. He was hammered in Frederick and has battled a series of injury woes. Last year he was sitting 88-91 at times and looks like his arm speed is not there.

[Tony-OH]

On 12/16/2018 at 6:20 PM, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think Sedlock ever fell from anywhere.  He's been at the bottom since he laced em up.  I understand the draft is a huge crap shoot out of the first few picks and Sedlock was picked later in the first round but I don't think that dude is ever gonna see the bigs.

I'm not sure what this means since he was 93-95 with sharp late sink when I saw him in Aberdeen. Since he was 88-91 last year with little sink I'd say that quite the fall off. I agree with you though that the ship has sailed on his prospect status.

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure what this means since he was 93-95 with sharp late sink when I saw him in Aberdeen. Since he was 88-91 last year with little sink I'd say that quite the fall off. I agree with you though that the ship has sailed on his prospect status.

In other words he didn't take long to sail that ship on the prospect status.

[Frobby]

I’ll reserve judgment on Sedlock for one more season.   I’m not optimistic, but stranger things have happened.    

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure what this means since he was 93-95 with sharp late sink when I saw him in Aberdeen. Since he was 88-91 last year with little sink I'd say that quite the fall off. I agree with you though that the ship has sailed on his prospect status.

Sedlock is starting to remind me of Dan Klein from years back, or even Branden Kline now. Instead of trying to squeeze out at SP, just have them be relievers and see if we can’t get something out of them. Especially with relievers’ value being at an all time high. 

Maybe Sedlock gets that Velo back with a move to the bullpen full time next year and 70 IP. Then if healthy he can always go back to starting. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ll reserve judgment on Sedlock for one more season.   I’m not optimistic, but stranger things have happened.    

You reserved judgement of Josh Hart for awhile too if I recall.

[Tony-OH]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sedlock is starting to remind me of Dan Klein from years back, or even Branden Kline now. Instead of trying to squeeze out at SP, just have them be relievers and see if we can’t get something out of them. Especially with relievers’ value being at an all time high. 

Maybe Sedlock gets that Velo back with a move to the bullpen full time next year and 70 IP. Then if healthy he can always go back to starting. 

I would definitely put him in the pen to see if his stuff comes back in that role. I'm very interested in seeing how Elias does player development. The Orioles have normally been pretty slow to move players from level to level and very reluctant to move starters into a relief role even when it was clear they were not going to be starters.

I know the conventional wisdom is to pitch prospects as starters in order to get them innings, but sometime I believe you have develop guys as relievers once they get to AA if that's the role you envision for them. Even if it's pitching them for 2-3 innings at a time, it's better than running them out there once every 5 days in a role they are not suited for.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You reserved judgement of Josh Hart for awhile too if I recall.

I reserve judgment on a lot of players, mainly because I’m not very good at projecting young players, in any sport.    I’ve been wrong so many times I can’t count them all!

That said, I never said much about Hart.    I know that when BP ranked him 5th in our system after the 2014 season, I questioned why he would be ranked that high.    Stotle (who was then on BP’s staff) came on to explain the ranking (though he wasn’t the one who did those rankings), and you and he had a big debate.    That’s probably what you are thinking of.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I reserve judgment on a lot of players, mainly because I’m not very good at projecting young players, in any sport.    I’ve been wrong so many times I can’t count them all!

That said, I never said much about Hart.    I know that when BP ranked him 5th in our system after the 2014 season, I questioned why he would be ranked that high.    Stotle (who was then on BP’s staff) came on to explain the ranking (though he wasn’t the one who did those rankings), and you and he had a big debate.    That’s probably what you are thinking of.

Wait, I think it was RZNJ now that I think about it that kept thinking Hart was a prospect. I've been wrong about guys before, but I can't think of many that I ultimately undervalued. Usually when I give up on a guy (as a prospect) it's time to give up on them.

Of course Jeff Fiorentino was definitely your guy! 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure what this means since he was 93-95 with sharp late sink when I saw him in Aberdeen. Since he was 88-91 last year with little sink I'd say that quite the fall off. I agree with you though that the ship has sailed on his prospect status.

Would something like Rick Peterson's bio-mechanical analysis maybe be able identify flaws in mechanics? Assuming he is not hurt which is probably not a good assumption.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, I think it was RZNJ now that I think about it that kept thinking Hart was a prospect. I've been wrong about guys before, but I can't think of many that I ultimately undervalued. Usually when I give up on a guy (as a prospect) it's time to give up on them.

Of course Jeff Fiorentino was definitely your guy! 

Yes, guilty on Fio.   And I think you’re right that RZNJ was high on Hart.

My only reason for not giving up on Sedlock is that I think a lot of his problems have been physical. So, I’d like to see if he comes back healthy this spring.    If not, I’ll agree it’s time to write him off.  

[weams]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You reserved judgement of Josh Hart for awhile too if I recall.

Jeff Fiorentino too. But we all have our guys.