Rank the #1 Draft Disappointments

[Palmoripken]

Piazza I know was famously taken in Rd-49 as a personal favor to Lasorda but those late round picks are always interesting. Wasn’t Brach a late round guy by SD?

[weams]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Just for some perspective though, most of those kinds of draft picks were fliers fully knowing that the team wasn't going to be able to sign them. Just don't want people thinking the Orioles drafted and then lowballed these guys.

It's a common bent and I appreciate you pointing this out once again.

[Bradysburns]

6 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

The thing here with Hunter, its still possible for him to have a good MLB career. Yes, he has had injuries, but if he made the team as a long man out of the pen, it wouldn't exactly cause people to scratch their heads and say, Hunter who?????

Personally, I expect to see him spend a few months in AAA, and then maybe after the ASG, maybe see him on the roster. No use to rush him, let him develop into a decent SP.

That would be amazing. Personally, I would love to see him just have a full, healthy year between maybe Double-A and Triple-A, with a September call-up maybe, depending on innings pitched (if they care about those things, which I assume Sig will). Anyway, I certainly root for Hunter. I'm sure he's bummed at being injured when he's got that much sheer potential. As I said, I definitely hope he succeeds and I have to eat crow. 

[TheOtherRipken]

Your answer here is all about perspective:

1) worst actual pick - Hobgood, we had absolutely no business drafting him where we did

2) missed opportunity pick - Rowell, many other picks after him were MUCH better and Rowell had the mental makeup of a paper towel 

3) failure to meet hype - Matusz, I remember him considered an absolute can’t miss prospect with middle of the rotation floor. The best of the big three throughout the minors. He was my pick, since the outcome was so disappointing compared to hype. Although it is funny how poorly that years draft class panned out. 

[Catch 8]

Hobgood was the worst pick--you don't pick a sleeper at 1-5.

Matusz ultimately disappointed me most because he rocketed through the system, dazzled for a season and a half and then completely and mysteriously fell apart.  I was higher on Matusz than anyone I knew for years, then stubbornly stuck by him years after he unraveled.  

A friend who played at Bluefield told me Billy Rowell refused autographs as a 17-year-old.  I hope and assume he became a better person with age.

I've had a few conversations with Wade Townsend, and let me tell you the man is one of the most intellectually gifted individuals I've ever met.  He is a fascinating story and person.  He wouldn't go into details, but the Orioles REALLY ticked him off.

Wieters solid ballplayer who helped the team win, but never remotely approached his Bowie/Frederick numbers or #1 prospect status.  He would have ended up on the Yankees if he did.

Adam Loewen was drafted 1-4 and threw 89 mph to the chagrin of Jim Palmer.  "That isn't number 1 stuff."  Perhaps that was a bad day, but he certainly wasn't overpowering.

I still believe in Bundy; I hope he isn't another coming of Matusz.

We traded Gausman for a pineapple and monopoly money.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Catch 8 said:

Adam Loewen was drafted 1-4 and threw 89 mph to the chagrin of Jim Palmer.  "That isn't number 1 stuff."  Perhaps that was a bad day, but he certainly wasn't overpowering.

I personally think Loewen would have developed into a very good starter if he’d stayed healthy.   I’m probably biased because I attended a game in his rookie season where he 1-hit the Yankees over 6.1 innings.   I remember being absolutely giddy leaving that game.   He had a great spring training in ‘08, but developed elbow problems shortly after the season started that turned out to be a fracture, and he never was able to keep the elbow heathy after that.    

[Palmoripken]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I personally think Loewen would have developed into a very good starter if he’d stayed healthy.   I’m probably biased because I attended a game in his rookie season where he 1-hit the Yankees over 6.1 innings.   I remember being absolutely giddy leaving that game.   He had a great spring training in ‘08, but developed elbow problems shortly after the season started that turned out to be a fracture, and he never was able to keep the elbow heathy after that.    

I was so excited for Loewen after that. Really thought he could become a Yankee killer. This is so disappointing to think about. Glad we did go with Machado in that draft. That was the right pick.

[ShaneDawg85]

Out of curiosity I wanted to know the most career WAR (as an Oriole) of our first round picks.  The Orioles don't exactly have the best track record with first round picks producing, but for as much as the last 20 plus years haven't been good to the Orioles, it's kind of ironic that three of the top 5 all-time have been since 1999.

Mike Mussina: 47.8

Bobby Grich: 36

Manny Machado: 30.9

Brian Roberts: 30.4

Nick Markakis: 25.6

Matt Wieters, and Kevin Gausman were in the next group down.  I don't know if it's a case of them doing something right with Machado, Roberts, or Markakis, or if it's more of a you sucked so bad enough to be in the position to draft them, but in terms of impact, the first round has produced significantly at times.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Out of curiosity I wanted to know the most career WAR (as an Oriole) of our first round picks.  The Orioles don't exactly have the best track record with first round picks producing, but for as much as the last 20 plus years haven't been good to the Orioles, it's kind of ironic that three of the top 5 have been since 1999.

Mike Mussina: 47.8

Bobby Grich: 36

Manny Machado: 30.9

Brian Roberts: 30.4

Nick Markakis: 25.6

Matt Wieters, and Kevin Gausman were in the next group down.  I don't know if it's a case of them doing something right with Machado, Roberts, or Markakis, or if it's more of a you sucked so bad enough to be in the position to draft them, but in terms of impact, the first round has produced significantly at times.

For a little perspective on this, during 1999-2018 there have only been 41 first-rounders who have been worth 25 WAR.   So for the Orioles to have had three of them is pretty solid, even if you consider that they were drafting high for much of that time.    

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

For a little perspective on this, during 1999-2018 there have only been 41 first-rounders who have been worth 25 WAR.   So for the Orioles to have had three of them is pretty solid, even if you consider that they were drafting high for much of that time.    

A little more: there are currently 82 active players (as of the 2018 season) who have been worth 25+ WAR so far in their careers.    58 were drafted, 24 are overseas players.   One, Matt Holliday, was drafted outside the 20 year window.    

34 of the 41 first rounders mentioned above are among the active 57 players drafted in the first round.   The other 7 are retired, including all 5 from the class of 1999 (Beckett, Zito, Roberts, Hamilton, Rios).