Rank the #1 Draft Disappointments

[now]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wieters’ hype increased exponentially during his 2008 MiL season.

.355

.454

.600

1.053

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion, it’s tough to say that a no. 5 or no. 4 draft pick was seen as a “generational talent” on draft day.   You can sort of make the case with Wieters, who arguably slipped to no. 5 because of Scott Boras’ expected demands, and did receive a higher bonus ($6 mm) than the no. 1 pick, David Price ($5.6 mm).    It’s harder to make that case for Bundy, who had three pitchers drafted ahead of him, two of whom (no. 1 Gerritt Cole and no. 2 Danny Hultzen) received more money than he did (no. 3 Trevor Bauer didn’t).

But to me at least, on draft day Wieters wasn’t up there at the level of Ben McDonald, Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper in terms of hype.   Wieters’ hype increased exponentially during his 2008 MiL season.

Varitek was the comp people used.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Varitek was the comp people used.

And that wasn’t a bad comp, though Varitek aged a lot better than Wieters has.    

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, now said:

.355

.454

.600

1.053

In retrospect we probably shouldn't have expected a very large catcher to continue to hit .355.  They would have started to Ernie Lombardi him.  His 2008 numbers minus 100 points of average was more-or-less his peak MLB performance.

To Ernie Lombardi: verb, the act of stationing your shortstop 12 steps out on the outfield grass knowing that the four-hop throw to first would still beat the comically slow Lombardi by three steps.

[ShaneDawg85]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Varitek was the comp people used.

Which I would say in the end was more or less who he turned out to be.  I'd say better at peak performance both offensively and defensively, Varitek held up better over the long haul.  But, unfortunately because he was more like Jason Varitek and less like Johnny Bench, somehow a bust that makes.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Which I would say in the end was more or less who he turned out to be.  I'd say better at peak performance both offensively and defensively, Varitek held up better over the long haul.  But, unfortunately because he was more like Jason Varitek and less like Johnny Bench, somehow a bust that makes.

Through age 32 Matt Wieters is 61st all time in rWAR by catchers (defined as having caught 75% of their games played).  That 50-75 range includes 15.9-19.6 WAR, so pretty closely spaced.  Members of that group include Jonathan Lucroy, Darren Daulton, Terry Steinbach, Tery Kennedy, A.J. Pierzynski, Milt May, Chief Meyers, and Jody Davis. Among Orioles Chris Hoiles is the only catcher to have accumulated more value through Weiter's age.  Jason Varitek only had 13.7 WAR though 32, but he got started late and may end up lasting longer.

[Just Regular]

 

In retrospect we probably shouldn't have expected a very large catcher to continue to hit .355.  They would have started to Ernie Lombardi him.  His 2008 numbers minus 100 points of average was more-or-less his peak MLB performance.

To Ernie Lombardi: verb, the act of stationing your shortstop 12 steps out on the outfield grass knowing that the four-hop throw to first would still beat the comically slow Lombardi by three steps.

As if the CJ Cron signing wasn't enough of a hint to Pujols, I've heard he's seen some of those SS as short left fielder alignments the last couple years too. 

If he cares about the sort of thing, he is also sitting at the very round B-Ref career number of 100.0 WAR.  Though also 18 RBI's away from 2000, and passing Gehrig and Bonds to boot.

So as I cast about for stuff to root for next year, I guess a couple good months for Albert gets to go on the list.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Through age 32 Matt Wieters is 61st all time in rWAR by catchers (defined as having caught 75% of their games played).  That 50-75 range includes 15.9-19.6 WAR, so pretty closely spaced.  Members of that group include Jonathan Lucroy, Darren Daulton, Terry Steinbach, Tery Kennedy, A.J. Pierzynski, Milt May, Chief Meyers, and Jody Davis. Among Orioles Chris Hoiles is the only catcher to have accumulated more value through Weiter's age.  Jason Varitek only had 13.7 WAR though 32, but he got started late and may end up lasting longer.

I think it is 99% certain that Wieters won’t be playing at age 39, as Varitek did.   Wieters may not have a market at 34.

[dorfmac]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

How is 18 WAR, 4-time all star, 2-time Gold Glove “almost replacement level?”   Wieters was very good, just not great.    Really, the expectations placed on him came from his 2008 MiL season in A+/AA; he was highly regarded on draft day but not seen the same way as after the ‘08 season.   

I’m hours late in responding, but his career OPS+ is something like 94 which is where I’m coming from with regards to almost replacement level. Imperfect and selective, sure. Obviously, that doesn’t take, what at one time was exceptional, defense into account.

Objectively, there’s no way Wieters is the correct answer here.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, dorfmac said:

I’m hours late in responding, but his career OPS+ is something like 94 which is where I’m coming from with regards to almost replacement level. Imperfect and selective, sure. Obviously, that doesn’t take, what at one time was exceptional, defense into account.

Objectively, there’s no way Wieters is the correct answer here.

If my understanding is correct, OPS+ is not positionally adjusted, but rather is scored relative to league-average hitter.  Therefore, a 94 OPS+ would be terrible for a left fielder, but is not really a bad score for a catcher.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

If my understanding is correct, OPS+ is not positionally adjusted, but rather is scored relative to league-average hitter.  Therefore, a 94 OPS+ would be terrible for a left fielder, but is not really a bad score for a catcher.

Last year 87 was average for a catcher.   I haven’t gone back to look historically, but I’d guess that’s about normal. 

[now]

I find it surprising only two votes went to Hunter Harvey. It may be too soon to write him off, but going from touted as a #1-2 starter to maybe making it as a reliever is tough outcome. Here's Luke's latest assessment from another thread:

Quote

Harvey [ranked 14, value 45] if healthy is much higher, but I think the amount of time he's missed has ticketed him for a bullpen role, so that limits the upside, plus there is the risk he never gets healthy. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, now said:

I find it surprising only two votes went to Hunter Harvey. It may be too soon to write him off, but going from touted as a #1-2 starter to maybe making it as a reliever is tough outcome. Here's Luke's latest assessment from another thread:

 

He was what the 17th pick in a weak class?

 

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, now said:

I find it surprising only two votes went to Hunter Harvey. It may be too soon to write him off, but going from touted as a #1-2 starter to maybe making it as a reliever is tough outcome. Here's Luke's latest assessment from another thread:

 

Compare to Chris Smith, who was the #7 overall pick, and pitched 52 horrible innings in the low minors.

Harvey: #22 overall, been on various top 100 prospect lists, and averages 11 K/9 in the minors.  His 2014 season alone was dramatically longer and more effective than any pro work done by Smith.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Darnell McDonald just came to mind. I remember him having a good deal of hype when I was growing up.