Orioles ZiPS

[Just Regular]

They are up at Fangraphs now - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

My biggest takeaways:

-If 2 WAR is the minimum decent player standard, it'll be a toss-up to see if any Oriole can make it in 2019.  1.9 Bundy/Cobb and 1.5 Mullins are the best bets.  I'm not sure how much of the bullpen's 3.8 belongs to Givens individually, but if he can push that, that's only good news for the eventual trade return.

-Yusniel towering over all in .OBP.  His .331 is as far ahead of 2nd place Peterson's .317 as Peterson's is ahead of 9th place McKenna's.  I'll be very curious to see if Yusniel starts in AA or AAA as the first hint of whether he'll get the Vlad treatment (even knowing he isn't that special).  Hays and Mountcastle both down at .280 or below.

-Milton Bradley for Diaz, and Vernon Wells for Mullins were famous #1 comps.

-It'll be interesting to see if Elias can turn one or both of Bleier and Hart into anything.  Scott's projected ERA+ lands right between those two among our potentially good relievers.

[Moose Milligan]

It's gonna be a long, long season.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's gonna be a long, long season.

Your buddy Colby Rasmus is listed. Made me laugh seeing his name. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Your buddy Colby Rasmus is listed. Made me laugh seeing his name. 

Colby Rasmus actually provided more value than Chris Davis last year.  Think about THAT.

[Luke-OH]

21 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

They are up at Fangraphs now - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

My biggest takeaways:

-If 2 WAR is the minimum decent player standard, it'll be a toss-up to see if any Oriole can make it in 2019.  1.9 Bundy/Cobb and 1.5 Mullins are the best bets.  I'm not sure how much of the bullpen's 3.8 belongs to Givens individually, but if he can push that, that's only good news for the eventual trade return.

-Yusniel towering over all in .OBP.  His .331 is as far ahead of 2nd place Peterson's .317 as Peterson's is ahead of 9th place McKenna's.  I'll be very curious to see if Yusniel starts in AA or AAA as the first hint of whether he'll get the Vlad treatment (even knowing he isn't that special).  Hays and Mountcastle both down at .280 or below.

-Milton Bradley for Diaz, and Vernon Wells for Mullins were famous #1 comps.

-It'll be interesting to see if Elias can turn one or both of Bleier and Hart into anything.  Scott's projected ERA+ lands right between those two among our potentially good relievers.

Givens is 1.6 WAR, which is extremely good for a reliever,  almost equal to Craig Kimbrel's 1.7 ZIPS projection. 

[Il BuonO]

 If Elias can make something out of Hart, I’ll buy everybody on OH a beer.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Colby Rasmus actually provided more value than Chris Davis last year.  Think about THAT.

I'd really rather not... 

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

They are up at Fangraphs now - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

My biggest takeaways:

-If 2 WAR is the minimum decent player standard, it'll be a toss-up to see if any Oriole can make it in 2019.  1.9 Bundy/Cobb and 1.5 Mullins are the best bets.  I'm not sure how much of the bullpen's 3.8 belongs to Givens individually, but if he can push that, that's only good news for the eventual trade return.

-Yusniel towering over all in .OBP.  His .331 is as far ahead of 2nd place Peterson's .317 as Peterson's is ahead of 9th place McKenna's.  I'll be very curious to see if Yusniel starts in AA or AAA as the first hint of whether he'll get the Vlad treatment (even knowing he isn't that special).  Hays and Mountcastle both down at .280 or below.

-Milton Bradley for Diaz, and Vernon Wells for Mullins were famous #1 comps.

-It'll be interesting to see if Elias can turn one or both of Bleier and Hart into anything.  Scott's projected ERA+ lands right between those two among our potentially good relievers.

The Vlad treatment?

You mean make sure he can play some semblance of defense before they promote him?

I actually don't have a problem with them holding Vlad back last year, his defense at third was a serious concern.

 

[Can_of_corn]

I do like their statement about Davis and it is something that everyone who wants him to get "fixed" needs to understand.  Davis is never going to be good again.  A three win bump in performance only gets him to replacement. 

[bobmc]

21 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

 If Elias can make something out of Hart, I’ll buy everybody on OH a beer.

Do they still make Buckhorn?  If not Shiner Bock will do  or longneck  Lone Star fer sure!

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, bobmc said:

Do they still make Buckhorn?  If not Shiner Bock will do  or longneck  Lone Star fer sure!

You'll get a Natty Bo and you'll like it!

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Yikes, looking at those projections could the 2019 be even worse?  Assuming Elias and Sig don’t work some of their magic on the roster. 

[wildbillhiccup]

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Colby Rasmus actually provided more value than Chris Davis last year.  Think about THAT.

The ghost of Mario Mendoza provided more value than Davis last year. 

[Pheasants]

I'm hoping we have a lot of guys busting their butts in 2019 to prove they belong in 2020-22.  Or, if they are older, hoping they can be trade bait.  Thus, we can beat the projection.  This must be close to a perfect scenario for a young player with almost no one in their way..

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pheasants said:

I'm hoping we have a lot of guys busting their butts in 2019 to prove they belong in 2020-22.  Or, if they are older, hoping they can be trade bait.  Thus, we can beat the projection.  This must be close to a perfect scenario for a young player with almost no one in their way..

It's normally fair to assume one or two guys beats their projection and a couple crash and burn.  Since no one beat their projection last year the O's are due.  If three maybe four guys do really well they might win 65 games.