Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Davis is not a negative influence in the clubhouse.  His offense has been disappointing but that only affecting those on the team that he is blocking like Mancini or in the future possibly Mountcastle.    Mancini is in line to take over DH if Trumbo leaves.   Mountcastle has a year in the minors to see if he can play 1B and hit AAA pitching.

It will be interesting to see what Elias does to try to turn Davis' offense around.

Yet, as far as we know. We'll see if he becomes one. 

[wildcard]

Just now, Frobby said:

Let’s say Davis repeats his 2018 performance in 2019.    Do you think the O’s hold onto him for 2020?

I think that would be indefensible.  

They may move Davis to the bench.  If Davis does not respond well to what ever Elias does to fix him then he could move to the bench.  A part time player to be used in case of injury or when someone needs rest.   The O's are not expected to contending 2019 or 2020.   

I would not underestimate the effort that Elias will make to get Davis to be a productive player.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Davis is not a negative influence in the clubhouse.  His offense has been disappointing but that only affecting those on the team that he is blocking like Mancini or in the future possibly Mountcastle.    Mancini is in line to take over DH if Trumbo leaves.   Mountcastle has a year in the minors to see if he can play 1B and hit AAA pitching.

It will be interesting to see what Elias does to try to turn Davis' offense around.

I think it has a corrosive effect on team morale when a player who is plainly not a competent major league player is taking up space that could be used on a player who could help the team.    It puts the team in a hole.    It’s like coming up to bat and the count is already 0-1.   The players can’t possibly like that.   It’s one thing when a guy is scuffling, it’s another thing when a guy is batting .168 and striking out 37% of the time, often failing to offer at pitches right down the middle of the plate with two strikes.   If he plays that poorly again, he’s got to go.    

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They may move Davis to the bench.  If Davis does not respond well to what ever Elias does to fix him then he could move to the bench.  A part time player to be used in case of injury or when someone needs rest.   The O's are not expected to contending 2019 or 2020.   

I would not underestimate the effort that Elias will make to get Davis to be a productive player.

If Elias helps him, or he otherwise figures out a way to be reasonably productive, fine.    But I don’t see carrying 2018 Davis on the roster for multiple years, even in a bench role, even on a bad team.    It’s an embarrassment to the games.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think it has a corrosive effect on team morale when a player who is plainly not a competent major league player is taking up space that could be used on a player who could help the team.    It puts the team in a hole.    It’s like coming up to bat and the count is already 0-1.   The players can’t possibly like that.   It’s one thing when a guy is scuffling, it’s another thing when a guy is batting .168 and striking out 37% of the time, often failing to offer at pitches right down the middle of the plate with two strikes.   If he plays that poorly again, he’s got to go.    

By 2020 this team will be so young there will no players on the team that would dare speak out or even think of causing a problem over Davis.  Cobb, Cashner, Villar, Givens, Trumbo all gone in 2020.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If Elias helps him, or he otherwise figures out a way to be reasonably productive, fine.    But I don’t see carrying 2018 Davis on the roster for multiple years, even in a bench role, even on a bad team.    It’s an embarrassment to the games.

If Davis has low offense production in a bench role where he get 100-150 at bats that is not embarrassing.  Plenty on bench players don't hit.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Davis has low offense production in a bench role where he get 100-150 at bats that is not embarrassing.  Plenty on bench players don't hit.

1.    There are almost no bench players who hit as badly as Davis did and get 100+ at bats — especially if they also did it the year before.   

2.   If there are any, they are probably players with other useful skills like multi-position utility infielders.    

I’d bet there are easily 50 minor league 1B who could hit better than Davis did last year.   The guy was that horrible.   

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1.    There are almost no bench players who hit as badly as Davis did and get 100+ at bats — especially if they also did it the year before.   

2.   If there are any, they are probably players with other useful skills like multi-position utility infielders.    

I’d bet there are easily 50 minor league 1B who could hit better than Davis did last year.   The guy was that horrible.   

But none of them are owed 23m/yr.  Davis is still probably a better defensive 1B than Mancini or Mountcastle.   Until the O's are contenders and need to field a 25 man roster that lets them reach their goal, Davis contract probably keeps him on the team in some role.

[mdbdotcom]

50 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By 2020 this team will be so young there will no players on the team that would dare speak out or even think of causing a problem over Davis.  Cobb, Cashner, Villar, Givens, Trumbo all gone in 2020.

Great management strategy. Fear brings out the best in everyone. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But none of them are owed 23m/yr.  Davis is still probably a better defensive 1B than Mancini or Mountcastle.   Until the O's are contenders and need to field a 25 man roster that lets them reach their goal, Davis contract probably keeps him on the team in some role.

I don’t give a damn what he is owed!    If it becomes apparent that he’s very, very unlikely to improve, he needs to be cut!    It’s not like he’s a AAAA player.   He’s like an A+ quality player sitting in a big league uniform.    That cannot be tolerated.   Much better to cut him and put some Chris Parmelee level player in his spot, which would be a significant improvement.  

The only reasonable question is how much more time do you give him to show improvement.   I’m pretty much willing to accept any answer through the end of this season, though personally I’d say 2-3 months.    But continuing this level of incompetence into 2020 would be an insult to the game.  

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By 2020 this team will be so young there will no players on the team that would dare speak out or even think of causing a problem over Davis.  Cobb, Cashner, Villar, Givens, Trumbo all gone in 2020.

It’s not a matter of speaking out or overtly causing a problem.   It’s a matter of going onto the field feeling half-defeated.    It’s just knowing that the quality of your play may not matter, that the team isn’t trying to put its best personnel on the field.    That isn’t good.    It’s like when the coach’s son gets to pitch even though everyone knows there are several better pitchers on the team.    The kids aren’t going to say anything to the coach about it, but it still affects them.  

You can’t have a .168/.243/.296 1B who strikes out 37% of the time on a major league roster for long.   He needs to improve or be cut.   

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t give a damn what he is owed!    If it becomes apparent that he’s very, very unlikely to improve, he needs to be cut!    It’s not like he’s a AAAA player.   He’s like an A+ quality player sitting in a big league uniform.    That cannot be tolerated.   Much better to cut him and put some Chris Parmelee level player in his spot, which would be a significant improvement.  

The only reasonable question is how much more time do you give him to show improvement.   I’m pretty much willing to accept any answer through the end of this season, though personally I’d say 2-3 months.    But continuing this level of incompetence into 2020 would be an insult to the game.  

47-115 is a insult to the game.  An now Elias is likely to trade away the few veterans he has left to obtain prospects for the rebuild.  That probably means lots  more  losing.  If that is not embarrassing to Elias than keeping Davis on the team while they are losing will not be that much of an insult to him or the Orioles or the game.

[doctorbj]

Not that I have any input to Davis’s contract, but is he not getting ~17 million per year and the rest deferred until yearly after the contract runs out?

Therefore we are on the hook for that amount yearly through the end of the contract. The rest is future like Bonilla’s was. So when we cut ties we are looking at 51-68 million not 69-92 million. The deferred payments should not even be part of the discussion re current sunk money   

i understand this is huge amount to give up on but not as huge as we talk about all time. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s not a matter of speaking out or overtly causing a problem.   It’s a matter of going onto the field feeling half-defeated.    It’s just knowing that the quality of your play may not matter, that the team isn’t trying to put its best personnel on the field.    That isn’t good.    It’s like when the coach’s son gets to pitch even though everyone knows there are several better pitchers on the team.    The kids aren’t going to say anything to the coach about it, but it still affects them.  

You can’t have a .168/.243/.296 1B who strikes out 37% of the time on a major league roster for long.   He needs to improve or be cut.   

The O's will probably take the field with youth and Davis will sit the bench.    That would minimize his impact on the team and on winning or losing.

[OriolesMagic83]

38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But none of them are owed 23m/yr.  Davis is still probably a better defensive 1B than Mancini or Mountcastle.   Until the O's are contenders and need to field a 25 man roster that lets them reach their goal, Davis contract probably keeps him on the team in some role.

Davis is going to get paid.  We all know that.  He will get his $17 mill/yr + $6 mill/yr deferred money.  Why let him accumulate any more negative value over the course of his contract.  I believe he should get an opportunity to prove himself this spring and the first couple of months.  If he can't at least supply replacement value, I don't see the point of keeping him on the team.  Do the O's really need a backup 1B/DH who can't hit .600 OPS?  If Davis continues playing the way he has for almost the last 2 years, the more the O's play him, the less value he has.