TT: Opening Day roster starting to take shape, but questions remain

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

Again, contract aside....what has Chris Davis done to justify a spot on the ML roster?

I do not think he has earned it.  I believe, keeping him on the roster will actually hinder the growth and development of the team moving forward.  It's not about losing a certain number of games, its about figuring out who can play and who cannot.

Wasting a roster spot for Arajuo for 17 days makes sense.  I do not think Davis is on the opening day roster.

Wish not but do I do not see ownership swallowing all the millions owed to Davis.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Alberto and Phillips could be the two most vulnerable, but I wouldn’t keep Escobar. He’s a defensive liability now. Find some video on his throws this spring, it’s bad.

Alberto is out of options and likely not going to make this team. Phillips likely will not get claimed, and if he does, no big loss. Guys with his profile are available all the time. 

Wilkerson and Dwight Smith would likely be claimed, but I think they are the next two. 

Haven’t really seen too much of Escobar in ST. 

As for the Phillips vs Arajuo debate. Phillips is actually 14 months younger and pitched a full season in AAA with a sub 2.00 ERA. 

I just don’t see the point in keeping Arajuo when he’s the 40th man on the 40 man roster. He has no business being on the 40 man, let alone the MLB roster for 15 games. Arajuo was a good dart throw that Buck thought he saw something. No harm, no foul. 

[Jammer7]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Haven’t really seen too much of Escobar in ST. 

As for the Phillips vs Arajuo debate. Phillips is actually 14 months younger and pitched a full season in AAA with a sub 2.00 ERA. 

I just don’t see the point in keeping Arajuo when he’s the 40th man on the 40 man roster. He has no business being on the 40 man, let alone the MLB roster for 15 games. Arajuo was a good dart throw that Buck thought he saw something. No harm, no foul. 

If someone told you that Araujo could be a solid ML set up guy in 2-3 years, would you keep him for the first 17 days? Because if they can get him to be more consistent with his mechanics, that’s his likely role to me. Take a closer look at Pedro’s stats, particularly his splits. And remember, Buck burned this kid last year. He was very solid in April, then was overused. He was a victim of awful roster management and the dysfunction that was Duquette vs. Buck. There is some good quality in his profile, and for 17 days of roster time, it’s worth it to find out if he can be the guy he should be. https://www.mlb.com/player/pedro-araujo-606478?stats=splits-r-pitching-mlb&year=2018

Phillips’ stats in a little more than half a season at AAA we’re solid. He was up with Atlanta some as well in 2018. His stuff is not that impressive for a MLB reliever. Some ups and downs, overall, he’s unspectacular for me. I do not see him having a ceiling of a higher leverage reliever, but a middle innings eater/journeyman AAAA type. He’s about the same as a Ryan Meisinger type for me. https://www.mlb.com/player/evan-phillips-623465?stats=career-r-pitching-minors&year=2019

Personally, I keep Araujo around and DFA Phillips if I need space on the roster. Araujo has some swing and miss stuff, when his mechanics are right and there is more upside than for Phillips. But I respect your thoughts. Different strokes. 

[wildcard]

Wait until the day before opening day and DFA  Alberto and Smith.  I think they both make it through waivers.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, foxfield said:

Again, contract aside....what has Chris Davis done to justify a spot on the ML roster?

I do not think he has earned it.  I believe, keeping him on the roster will actually hinder the growth and development of the team moving forward.  It's not about losing a certain number of games, its about figuring out who can play and who cannot.

Wasting a roster spot for Arajuo for 17 days makes sense.  I do not think Davis is on the opening day roster.

You don't think the O's would give Davis at least a couple of months of regular season AB to determine if the changes he/they have implemented with him have helped? If you believe that ST results don't really matter, then you can't keep Davis off of the 25-man based on those results. 

Changes take time. Will they work? No, probably not! But you don't know for sure until he's collected at least 100-150 ABs. Not to mention Elias has already mentioned that if Davis' changes don't result in improvements, he will intervene to try and change him more. So that implies not only will Davis be given time to right himself at the beginning of the season, he will be given even more time after that  to implement whatever changes Elias and Co. come up with. 

If that fails, then and only then will he be released. IMO. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, foxfield said:

Again, contract aside....what has Chris Davis done to justify a spot on the ML roster?

I do not think he has earned it.  I believe, keeping him on the roster will actually hinder the growth and development of the team moving forward.  It's not about losing a certain number of games, its about figuring out who can play and who cannot.

Wasting a roster spot for Arajuo for 17 days makes sense.  I do not think Davis is on the opening day roster.

There’s no such thing as “contract aside.”    The O’s will spend some time trying to resurrect Chris Davis precisely because they have to pay him $92 mm.     I’m a big advocate of not chasing after sunk costs, but for $92 mm you have to be 100% sure that cost is completely sunk.    My guess is it takes a couple of months to go from 95% sure to 100%.     

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s no such thing as “contract aside.”    The O’s will spend some time trying to resurrect Chris Davis precisely because they have to pay him $92 mm.     I’m a big advocate of not chasing after sunk costs, but for $92 mm you have to be 100% sure that cost is completely sunk.    My guess is it takes a couple of months to go from 95% sure to 100%.     

I agree. As much as I want Davis off this roster, I'd be pleasantly surprised of Elias was allowed to eat the albatross of a contract. I just don't see that happening. Now if Davis is hitting .148 on May 30th, maybe that's enough.

[weams]

4 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Wish not but do I do not see ownership swallowing all the millions owed to Davis.

It’s going to happen. Now or in the future. It’s like an overripe avocado. I guess you could hope for it to get better. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

It’s going to happen. Now or in the future. It’s like an overripe avocado. I guess you could hope for it to get better. 

An overripe avocado isn't going to get better.

[weams]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

An overripe avocado isn't going to get better.

There are hopers. 

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s no such thing as “contract aside.”    The O’s will spend some time trying to resurrect Chris Davis precisely because they have to pay him $92 mm.     I’m a big advocate of not chasing after sunk costs, but for $92 mm you have to be 100% sure that cost is completely sunk.    My guess is it takes a couple of months to go from 95% sure to 100%.     

This is a nice succinct way of putting it. If you're the O's, you better be dang sure. And you want to say you did your due diligence. It's Niiiiiineeetttyy twooooo millliiooonnnnnnnnn Unittteeddd Statteessss dooolllaaarrrsss. Lol. 

That's a lot of scratch! You don't want to be wrong about it based on ST ABs. Especially when the 2019 games don't matter.

[weams]

And we all realize that Davis will be why we do not sign FAs for the next 20 years. Right?

[Can_of_corn]

I don't want to make a new thread for this, so linking it here.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2019-orioles-are-one-of-the-most-anonymous-teams-in-mlb-history/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[interloper]

I will even move my original potential "CD release date" (ayyy) from next season up to the the AS break of this season. 

I am willing to compromise!

[foxfield]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

You don't think the O's would give Davis at least a couple of months of regular season AB to determine if the changes he/they have implemented with him have helped? If you believe that ST results don't really matter, then you can't keep Davis off of the 25-man based on those results. 

Changes take time. Will they work? No, probably not! But you don't know for sure until he's collected at least 100-150 ABs. Not to mention Elias has already mentioned that if Davis' changes don't result in improvements, he will intervene to try and change him more. So that implies not only will Davis be given time to right himself at the beginning of the season, he will be given even more time after that  to implement whatever changes Elias and Co. come up with. 

If that fails, then and only then will he be released. IMO. 

 

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s no such thing as “contract aside.”    The O’s will spend some time trying to resurrect Chris Davis precisely because they have to pay him $92 mm.     I’m a big advocate of not chasing after sunk costs, but for $92 mm you have to be 100% sure that cost is completely sunk.    My guess is it takes a couple of months to go from 95% sure to 100%.     

I agree with both of you.  I did not however say released.  I said I do not think he will be on the opening roster.  I think CD gets extra time in Fla to work on things and I think he gets every chance to get it together.  But I think that can be done without taking him north after a short sample of poor performance.  Maybe it won't.  Maybe they believe that A) he will be better or B) they can break him.  But if I was trying to find a way to maximize 92M, I think Id give him some personal attention in extended spring training away from pressure, and more importantly, away from 25 guys who are currently more deserving.