TT: Sisco among last cuts, roster takes shape

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I saw.  What really caused me to start questioning their numbers was when they had a Rays catcher's framing worth 4 wins in under 120 games.

My thinking is, if framing is that valuable why isn't that value being reflected in the free agent deals?

If every team knows a guys framing is going to win them four extra games over 120 starts someone is going to pay.

The only justification I can think of is that teams don't believe it.  I suppose it's possible that it's true but no one buys into it.  

Yes, if Jose Molina's framing was worth +5 wins in a half a season's innings of catching he should be playing 140 games a year even if he's OPS'ing .450.  And some team should be willing to pay him $24M for being +5 in framing minus 2 in everything else... or 3 wins x $8M.  And Ryan Doumit should have been traded to the AL to DH or moved to first base immediately.  Instead the Twins acquired him and let him be their full time catcher for two seasons, years later.

Or maybe they see Jonathan Lucroy.  He had multiple seasons where he was allegedly worth +3 to +5 wins from framing.  Then in 2017 he was -2.5 wins.  I don't know of another skill set in baseball where there can be 7 or 8 win swing in value and nobody really notices.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The only justification I can think of is that teams don't believe it.  I suppose it's possible that it's true but no one buys into it.  

Yes, if Jose Molina's framing was worth +5 wins in a half a season's innings of catching he should be playing 140 games a year even if he's OPS'ing .450.  And some team should be willing to pay him $24M for being +5 in framing minus 2 in everything else... or 3 wins x $8M.  And Ryan Doumit should have been traded to the AL to DH or moved to first base immediately.  Instead the Twins acquired him and let him be their full time catcher for two seasons, years later.

Or maybe they see Jonathan Lucroy.  He had multiple seasons where he was allegedly worth +3 to +5 wins from framing.  Then in 2017 he was -2.5 wins.  I don't know of another skill set in baseball where there can be 7 or 8 win swing in value and nobody really notices.

I think the teams, at least some of them, have more accurate information.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Either my math is bad or that is only 24 players. Ah! 6 infielders. He can't add.

How can we trust anything Trezza says now?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the teams, at least some of them, have more accurate information.

Fast was working for the Astros, yes?    And now he’s somewhere else.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Fast was working for the Astros, yes?    And now he’s somewhere else.   

He wasn't working for any team when he published his original data.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the teams, at least some of them, have more accurate information.

Sure.  Or they just interpret and regress the data differently.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He wasn't working for any team when he published his original data.

Yes, I know.    I think he was with BP then.    Just saying the public founder of this type of analysis did get hired, by a team very much at the forefront of analytics, so they must have thought the analysis had some value.    Of course, for all we know, some teams may have been quantifying pitch framing before Fast ever published anything.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I know.    I think he was with BP then.    Just saying the public founder of this type of analysis did get hired, by a team very much at the forefront of analytics, so they must have thought the analysis had some value.    Of course, for all we know, some teams may have been quantifying pitch framing before Fast ever published anything.   

Fast's results were a lot flatter than the folks who succeeded him.  He didn't project anyone's framing to be worth 4+ wins in a season.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

How can we trust anything Trezza says now?

Better watch out, you already have Roch wanting to meet you behind the school!

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Better watch out, you already have Roch wanting to meet you behind the school!

I’m just parodying wildcard.    I think Trezza has done a decent job so far, even if he can’t count to six.  

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m just parodying wildcard.    I think Trezza has done a decent job so far, even if he can’t count to six.  

That requires the fingers on both hands.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just parodying wildcard.    I think Trezza has done a decent job so far, even if he can’t count to six.  

Trezza has been solid, especially for a young guy trying to learn a new organization. 

[wildcard]

Tony,   i have to give you credit.  You were the only one I read late in ST saying that Alberto would make OD.   But there he is barring a waiver wire acquisition.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m just parodying wildcard.    I think Trezza has done a decent job so far, even if he can’t count to six.  

Actually Trezza, Roch and Meoli all could not figure out early in ST that the O's needed a 5th starter of April 3rd.    Roch did figure it out about a week or 10 days ago.  I don't know if the other two have yet.   Its pretty basic reporting if they are covering the O's and its hard to give the readers insight when they don't know what they are talking about.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony,   i have to give you credit.  You were the only one I read late in ST saying that Alberto would make OD.   But there he is barring a waiver wire acquisition.

Well thanks, but was more of an assessment based on the situation. Elias had reacquired him after the Giants tried to sneak him through waivers after taking him off waivers from the Orioles. This told me that Elias liked the guy. When you looked at the other options available (Escobar, Wilkerson, Vincej, Peterson and Reinheimer) and the fact that Alberto had no options left and had been lost before, it made the most sense.

Now whether he can make it through the waiver claims or even this season is certainly up for debate.