2019 O's: Where service time is king

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

I basically agree with this. Elias has probably written off the next two years, so nothing that happens at the major league level this year other than a player improving trade value is beneficial. A prospect playing well in Baltimore this year would be a total waste from the three to five years out window. It's going to be a really, really rough year and next year is going to be a big bummer too. We are all paying for the sins of ownership. The decisions to postpone a rebuild and take the low probability gamble for a wildcard spot in 2017 and, especially 2018, lack of investment in international prospects, etc., have firmly come home to roost.  I guess the flip side is that the Orioles can have the patience to really wait for a prospect to beat down the door. The Orioles have rushed a lot of prospects to the bigs (Mancini being a notable exception). 

I doubt any prospect playing well in Baltimore would consider it a waste.  Far from it.  I strongly suspect Brandon Hyde would greatly appreciate having 25 players at his disposal who haven't written off the next two years.  I don't believe a single Orioles player will spend a single second contemplating "the sins of ownership", at least during gametime.  Finally if Elias considers the main purpose of the 2019 season is to rebuild a few veteran's trade value, I'll lose all respect for him on the spot.  I hope I''ll never hear him say "oh, it's a rebuild, it really doesn't matter."

 

 

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

I doubt any prospect playing well in Baltimore would consider it a waste.  Far from it.  I strongly suspect Brandon Hyde would greatly appreciate having 25 players at his disposal who haven't written off the next two years.  I don't believe a single Orioles player will spend a single second contemplating "the sins of ownership", at least during gametime.  Finally if Elias considers the main purpose of the 2019 season is to rebuild a few veteran's trade value, I'll lose all respect for him on the spot.  I hope I''ll never hear him say "oh, it's a rebuild, it really doesn't matter."

 

 

You will never hear Elias say  it with words, but he’s certainly saying it with actions. How many players on the opening roster will be on the team three years from now? This is the way most teams rebuild now. 

 

The Orioles hit rock bottom. It’s ugly and it’s going to take years to dig out of the hole. 

 

I certainly did not say or imply that prospects want to stay down. 

[Rene88]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Maybe 5 posts.  Not 5 threads

I enjoy your posts & analysis Sir. Don’t always have to agree but as LookingUp said I think you are mostly right here. 

[Beef Supreme]

I don't believe that a single player who was sent down was shipped out wholly on manipulating service time. There is not one sure thing amongst the prospects that screams, "We need one extra year of team control," whether that's Hays or Sisco or Stewart or anyone else.

But if Elias is manipulating service time, so what?

Maybe in 2020, you could make the claim about manipulating Yusniel Diaz's service time. I guess we'll see someone recycle this post next Spring.

[Beef Supreme]

4 hours ago, Bubble Buddy said:

I believe this too. I like the idea of having the players master the different levels, or in Hays’ case, go down and prove that 2018 was injury riddled and flukey (and also play some CF). 

Elias has said at different points that many of the players on the next winning team are already in the organization. This could be part of that long term development outlook, giving guys a fresh start to “reset” as you said and earn their way back up to the bigs. 

I’ve got no problem with it and it also saves me some $ on the MLB.TV package. I’ll just need to find a bar in town that has MLB and I can use the ol’ eye test every few weeks to back up what I’m seeing in the box scores. 

Elias has, in fact, said this. I don't believe him. I don't even think that he believes himself.

Diaz, DL Hall, GrayRod, maybe McKenna...that doesn't qualify as "many" in most people's estimation.

[Just Regular]

9 hours ago, 24fps said:

Is any player currently in the Orioles system that close to the ML level and so precious that such manipulation is called for?  

I hope so.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

I don't believe that a single player who was sent down was shipped out wholly based on manipulating service time. There is not one sure thing amongst the prospects that screams, "We need one extra year of team control," whether that's Hays or Sisco or Stewart or anyone else.

But if Elias is manipulating service time, so what?

Maybe in 2020, you could make the claim about manipulating Yusniel Diaz's service time. I guess we'll see someone recycle this post next Spring.

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

Elias has, in fact, said this. I don't believe him. I don't even think that he believes himself.

Diaz, DL Hall, GrayRod, maybe McKenna...that doesn't qualify as "many" in most people's estimation.

Many is one of those perfectly nebulous words for opacity when you aren't sure if you mean three or eleven, and I'm sure we'll hear it again in Elias quotes this year.  I think he believes it a bit and counts Mountcastle, Lowther, Akin, Adam Hall, JC Encarnacion and Carmona in addition to those you mentioned.

It could be interesting this summer to see whether they try to steer the Baysox or Tides into a super-team.  If one of them is good enough for a concentration of....many....of the org's best talents for a playoff push, that'll be the most August/September fun I think we can hope for this year.

[OFFNY]

9 hours ago, 24fps said:

 

Playing the service time game in the first part of 2019 is one thing, but I don't see anybody except maybe Diaz that warrants any consideration beyond that.  Maybe.  This is year one of a rebuilding process that will take several years, but I think you can get too loose with your thinking about how non-competitive that licenses you to be.  IMO our next wave needs to be up the minute they're considered ready to play at the ML level and let's see what develops from that.  In the meantime the brain trust can be working hard to find even better alternatives.  It's a dynamic process, so I think they should be dynamic and not be overly concerned about conserving service time of players whose upside looks to be that of ML regulars at best.

 

o

 

I think so, too.

That was a different time, and a very different situation.

I only posted that because the sentiment of your post reminded me of Britton and his reaction to it in March of 2011, which was a different reaction from a young player than most fans might expect.

 

o

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I would say this players that Elias thinks have a real chance of being on the Orioles when they finally turn it around are not going to be rushed to Camden Yards in 2019 through 2021. 

Plus the Orioles have wrecked many a pitcher by calling them up too soon.

[24fps]

46 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I hope so.

I do too, but I'm not holding my breath.  There is a danger of getting too fancy here.  But take all the time you want with Sisco, Hays and Stewart.  Heck, take until the AS break if you have to.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

You will never hear Elias say  it with words, but he’s certainly saying it with actions. How many players on the opening roster will be on the team three years from now? This is the way most teams rebuild now. 

 

The Orioles hit rock bottom. It’s ugly and it’s going to take years to dig out of the hole. 

 

I certainly did not say or imply that prospects want to stay down. 

No, but you stated directly that a prospect playing well this year would be a waste.  Implicit is the assumption that the only valid yardstick is what happens three years from now.  A lot of personnel decisions will be made in the next three years, many of them can only be made against ML competition.  Not a waste at all.  

The only thing we can say with certainty about Elias is that he's not going to be very active in the FA market over the next couple of years.  That's very different than saying  "...Elias has probably written off the next two years, so nothing that happens at the major league level this year other than a player improving trade value is beneficial."  

We don't know how many years it's going to take to dig out of the hole and neither does Mike Elias at this point.  I think it's safe to say that he's smart enough to know that the less time he takes, the better.

[Ohfan67]

27 minutes ago, 24fps said:

No, but you stated directly that a prospect playing well this year would be a waste.  Implicit is the assumption that the only valid yardstick is what happens three years from now.  A lot of personnel decisions will be made in the next three years, many of them can only be made against ML competition.  Not a waste at all.  

The only thing we can say with certainty about Elias is that he's not going to be very active in the FA market over the next couple of years.  That's very different than saying  "...Elias has probably written off the next two years, so nothing that happens at the major league level this year other than a player improving trade value is beneficial."  

We don't know how many years it's going to take to dig out of the hole and neither does Mike Elias at this point.  I think it's safe to say that he's smart enough to know that the less time he takes, the better.

Reread Sid’s recent interview. I think they see the organization they inherited as a complete mess from top to bottom. I do think they have written off this years major league team and do not see next years team being competitive. I think they are going to develop the players and coaching using analytics primarily in the minors for the foreseeable future. I now think it’s likely that the real prospects will spend almost if not the entire year on the farm.

The Orioles have spent almost the entire Angelos era trying to take short cuts and avoid really building a competitive organization. They have hired the people who are going to build that organization. That’s going to take several years. If you really believe otherwise, then you need to put the bong down. 

 

But maybe I’m wrong. If they promote Diaz soon after the service time date, then I’ll eat some crow.  I’m not rooting for these things to happen, by the way, I just believe it is the reality of how messed up the organization was. 

[ScGO's]

I agree with the opening post.  Didn't the Astros hold their prospects back too.  Teach them how to win in AAA.  Let them learn each others styles of play and tendencies.  Bring them all up at the same time as one unit.  I feel all signs of Elias point to the conservative approach with his assets.  All the cuts seem to be in line with the opening post as well.

[Going Underground]

48 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I agree with the opening post.  Didn't the Astros hold their prospects back too.  Teach them how to win in AAA.  Let them learn each others styles of play and tendencies.  Bring them all up at the same time as one unit.  I feel all signs of Elias point to the conservative approach with his assets.  All the cuts seem to be in line with the opening post as well.

I know they had an enormously low payroll and where very profitable.

Since becoming the Astros’ owner in 2011, Crane has gutted the team of its most expensive players while building up the farm system. Over the course of this season, the team will pay its players an estimated $21 million in salary and bonuses. That is down $56 million from 2011, when Crane bought the team.

The Astros opened this season with a league-low $26 million active payroll and have since cut it to under $13 million, according to the Houston Chronicle. Houston traded or released four of its five players making over $1 million.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2013/08/26/2013-houston-astros-baseballs-worst-team-is-most-profitable-in-history/#698ec08434c0