Which O's players match Elias criteria to be in the majors?

[wildcard]

This is not saying that all these players will be successful in the majors but they have succeeded in either the Majors or AAA which I believe is at least one of Elias criteria  for development. Defense not included.

Starters

1) Cobb  53-50, 3.75 ERA career record

2) Cashner  11-11 3.40 ERA in 2017

3) Bundy 13-9  4.24 ERA  in 2017  (little high on the ERA but he has proven he can win in the majors.

4) Hess  3.88 ERA in 10 starts in the 2nd half of 2018.  3-2   3.15 ERA in 9 starts 36 at AAA in 2018.

5) Wright  22-22  3.53 ERA in 70 starts at AAA career

6) Rogers 8-9  3.54 ERA in 24 starts at AAA in 2018

7) Means 6-5  3.48 ERA in 19 starts at AAA in 2018

Starter/Reliever

8 Karns   7-5   3.67 ERA in 26 start in 2015

Relievers

9) Givens 18-12  3.12 career ERA

10) Bleier  5-1  1.97 career ERA

11) Castro  3-3   3.53 ERA in 2017

12) Fry   3.35 ERA in  37.2 IP in 2018

13)  Yacabonis   4-0  1.32 ERA in 61.1 IP at AAA in 2017

14) Carroll  4-0 2.72 ERA in 46.1 IP at AAA in 2018

15) Phillips   2.28 ERA in  51.1 IP at AAA in 2018

16) Josh Lucas   8-3   3.39 ERA in 106 career IP at AAA

Infield

1 )Davis led the AL in homer twice and RBI once

2) Villar   92 R, 19 HR, 62 SB  285/369/457/829 in 2016

3) Ruiz   294/375/458/833 vs RHP at AAA in 2016; 264/337/500/837 vs RHP at AAA om 2017

4) Alberto  330/346/452/797 at AAA (PCL) in 2018

5) Nunez  275/336/445/781 in 200 AB with the O’s in 2018;   32 HR, 78 RBI  249/318/518/837 in AAA (PCL) in 473 AB in 2017

6 &  7) Rule 5 players Martin and Jackson are the exception

8 Rienhiemer   288/353/384/737 in 560 AB in AAA (PCL) in 2016

9) Bostick   294/362/418/779 in 459 AB in AAA (INT) in 2017

Infield/Outfielders

10) Mancini    24 HR, 78 RBI 293/338/488/826 for O’s in 2017

11) Peterson  254/350/366/715 in 350 AB  for Atlanta in 2016:   268/371/392/763 career at AAA

Outfield

12)  Smith   293/365/467/833 in MLB in 92 career AB:   271/354/401/755 career at AAA in 705 AB

13) Rickard   287/393/408/801 career at AAA

14) Mullins   281/337/464/800 vs right-hander at AAA Norfolk in 192 AB in 2018  (Probably needs more time at AAA to meet Elias development criteria)

DH

15) Trumbo   47 HR, 108 RBI,   256/316/533/850 with the O’s in 2016

Catchers

No catcher meets the offensive criteria

[sportsfan8703]

I give Elias credit. Pretty much every young hitter mashed in ST. He stayed the course. Why take a chance and “rush” any of them when we have the freedom that losing/rebuilding gives us?

The young guys got a taste of what it’s like not to be “blocked” by established MLBers. Now they need to handle their business in the minors and earn their way back up. 

[Moose Milligan]

It could be a coincidence that some of these guys have AAA experience.  We've seen players make the jump from AA to the majors before.   I think top prospects make the jump from AA, a fringe prospect goes to AAA.

@wildcard if you wanna test your theory, you should be looking at what Houston did to see if players spent time in AAA there, too.

[interloper]

I'm not sure I understand the OP exactly? What is the theory here?

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It could be a coincidence that some of these guys have AAA experience.  We've seen players make the jump from AA to the majors before.   I think top prospects make the jump from AA, a fringe prospect goes to AAA.

@wildcard if you wanna test your theory, you should be looking at what Houston did to see if players spent time in AAA there, too.

The only two I can think of to make the two level jump (and stick) over the last ten years are Machado and Givens for us.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

The only two I can think of to make the two level jump (and stick) over the last ten years are Machado and Givens for us.

Stretch it back a little further, Markakis.

Dunno, I'm not caught up in who's in AAA or AA.  

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure I understand the OP exactly? What is the theory here?

Took me a couple reads to get it, I think ol wildcard is saying that it's going to be mandatory for players to do time in AAA before being promoted.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Took me a couple reads to get it, I think ol wildcard is saying that it's going to be mandatory for players to do time in AAA before being promoted.

So does anyone know is this how the Astros operate?  

Just looking at Carlos Correa he didn’t spend much time in the minor leagues above A level. 

 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It could be a coincidence that some of these guys have AAA experience.  We've seen players make the jump from AA to the majors before.   I think top prospects make the jump from AA, a fringe prospect goes to AAA.

@wildcard

It’s all over the lot.    Some jumped from AA (Manny), some from AAA (Betts).   Some jumped from AA, struggled, went back to AAA and then had a successful transition to the majors (Trout).     

You look at Houston, Correa barely touched either AA (29 games) or AAA (24 games), but he did play at both levels.   Bregman had 62 games of AA and 18 of AAA before his call-up.    Of course, those two were no. 1-2 picks in the whole draft and very highly ranked prospects.    Nobody in our system now is as highly regarded as those two.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s all over the lot.    Some jumped from AA (Manny), some from AAA (Betts).   Some jumped from AA, struggled, went back to AAA and then had a successful transition to the majors (Trout).     

You look at Houston, Correa barely touched either AA (29 games) or AAA (24 games), but he did play at both levels.   Bregman had 62 games of AA and 18 of AAA before his call-up.    Of course, those two were no. 1-2 picks in the whole draft and very highly ranked prospects.    Nobody in our system now is as highly regarded as those two.

And the award for "Most Understated Phrasing of the Year" goes to....  

[wildcard]

Elias has said that he believes in young players being fully developed in the minors before coming to the majors.  One of the reasons he is giving for sending down Hays, Diaz, and Santander is that they have not spent time at AAA.   So if AAA is important to being promoted, this OP looks at which players have spent time  at AAA and had some success either the majors or AAA.  It may tell us who Elias is likely to keep in the majors and who are the players in the minors that may  be promoted.

George Springer was that kind of player for the Astros in the years just after Luhnow and Elias arrived in Houston.  Springer was a top 100 prospect 2013 but they held him at AA/AAA for the whole season and then keep him in the minors until April 16th 2014 before promoting him.  This seem to be for service time reasons.

 I think there will be times when Elias does promote to the majors when the player has only a little AAA playing time.  I think Hays and Santander could get promoted in May if they are doing well because they may be better than what the O's have in the majors and there would be little impact on their service time.   

[Natty]

The top 5 starters listed only wish they could get their ERA as low as that. 

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Natty said:

The top 5 starters listed only wish they could get their ERA as low as that. 

True.   I think we will see a better defense this season which I hope will allow all the pitchers to improve their ERAs.

[Aristotelian]

I don't believe Elias has announced any "criteria". It is clear that he is thinking long term rather than "best 25" in March 2019. He is going to try not to DFA guys that might have value. He will consider service time. Davis has a big contract. Way too early to know all the details.

I am going to guess that we will not see Hays the second he becomes eligible, unless Rickard is a complete disaster. In other words, Hays is not just a service time issue.

Severino will have a chance to fail before we see Sisco (but Severino will probably fail and we will see Sisco at some point). Wright will have a chance to fail before we add another pitcher to the 40 man.

I believe Means will hit the shuttle within the first couple games and we will see Rogers or Phillips. Then we will see the other of those two after Araujo completes his Rule 5 time, if not before.

 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't believe Elias has announced any "criteria". It is clear that he is thinking long term rather than "best 25" in March 2019. He is going to try not to DFA guys that might have value. He will consider service time. Davis has a big contract. Way too early to know all the details.

I am going to guess that we will not see Hays the second he becomes eligible, unless Rickard is a complete disaster. In other words, Hays is not just a service time issue.

Severino will have a chance to fail before we see Sisco (but Severino will probably fail and we will see Sisco at some point). Wright will have a chance to fail before we add another pitcher to the 40 man.

I believe Means will hit the shuttle within the first couple games and we will see Rogers or Phillips. Then we will see the other of those two after Araujo completes his Rule 5 time, if not before.

 

I think there is a good chance that Hays gets called up to play CF in May.

Also I think Wynns may be the first catcher called up from AAA if the O's need to do that.   I think they want Sisco to catch most days at AAA.