Exclusive Orioles Hangout Interview: One on One with Mike Elias

[Emory Eagle]

Just want to say this is awesome content and very much appreciated (especially given the current product on the field!). 

[Redskins Rick]

50 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Elias said pretty much that Sig has a method for projecting how a player promoted to the next minor league level is going to perform and that tells them a lot about when a player is ready for the next level. So they are even running promotion decisions through a model, which kinda makes sense if you are trying to make data based decisions.

[HowAboutThat]

I’m really interested in Elias’ philosophy about later picks. Jon Shepard said the orioles tended to look for guys with “one loud tool” even if everything else was mediocre or worse. That’s one way of approaching things, but I wonder what Mike looks for.

[DrungoHazewood]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It may have been the foundation, but I can tell you that statistics are not the only evaluation tool. As he stated, the use of trackman data is a huge part of the collected data, and might end up a much clearer indicator of future success when it's all evaluated. I'd love to have more insight on how they are doing this, but it's part of their "secret sauce" at the moment.

It's great to see the innovation across baseball, but especially with the Orioles.  It's been a long acceptance process.  When James made that statement over 30 years ago most people believed that minor league performances were close to meaningless, that you could hit .380 with 50 homers in AAA and be total bum in the majors.  Now we have pretty detailed, nuanced translation algorithms that are just part of the toolset of a competent MLB organization.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's great to see the innovation across baseball, but especially with the Orioles.  It's been a long acceptance process.  When James made that statement over 30 years ago most people believed that minor league performances were close to meaningless, that you could hit .380 with 50 homers in AAA and be total bum in the majors.  Now we have pretty detailed, nuanced translation algorithms that are just part of the toolset of a competent MLB organization.

But I think it's more than just nuanced translation algorithms that are driving the innovation in prospect development and evaluation. The Trackman data, and bat speed data, is really the game changer here. By knowing the actually exit velocities, launch angles, spin rates, bat speed, and so forth, you really can start getting a better idea of whether that player will have a better chance of succeeding against the better quality of talent in the major leagues. 

Instead of relying on the scouting eye to tell you that the guy is struggles hit breaking pitches or balls inside, you now have the cold hard data. 

The one draw back of doing just statistical translation is that you don't have it broken down enough to know whether that success was coming against a real prospects with "major league stuff" vs the career A-ball pitcher/hitter. Trackman data allows for this translation at much more granular state.

I'd pay to see the Trackman data for the Orioles minor leaguers. It's the holy grail of information in my mind.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

But I think it's more than just nuanced translation algorithms that are driving the innovation in prospect development and evaluation. The Trackman data, and bat speed data, is really the game changer here. By knowing the actually exit velocities, launch angles, spin rates, bat speed, and so forth, you really can start getting a better idea of whether that player will have a better chance of succeeding against the better quality of talent in the major leagues. 

Instead of relying on the scouting eye to tell you that the guy is struggles hit breaking pitches or balls inside, you now have the cold hard data. 

The one draw back of doing just statistical translation is that you don't have it broken down enough to know whether that success was coming against a real prospects with "major league stuff" vs the career A-ball pitcher/hitter. Trackman data allows for this translation at much more granular state.

I pay to see the Trackman data for the Orioles minor leaguers. It's the holy grail of information in my mind.

Seeing anything interesting at this point? Probably a little too early.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I pay to see the Trackman data for the Orioles minor leaguers. It's the holy grail of information in my mind.

That would be amazing to see.  Think of how far things have come.  Even in the 1980s, maybe 90s you could call up a guy the organization acquired a few months ago and you know almost nothing about him besides a name and a basic stat line.  Now you can probably pull his reaction times and max sprint speeds and exit velocities from his time in Walla Walla.

[Ohfan67]

Excellent interview. Thanks for making this happen and I hope you get to interview Elias a couple of times a year. That would be awesome. 

[Tony-OH]

48 minutes ago, interloper said:

Seeing anything interesting at this point? Probably a little too early.

That was my typo. I meant I'd pay, not that I have access. Sorry. Wish I did.

[Orioles1954]

I really appreciate having complex analytical information relayed to me in a way that any John Q. Fan can understand.

[HowAboutThat]

I’m think I’m a little bit unclear on, is the difference between track man and statcast. If I understand correctly, track man is only used in the minors, and statcast is only used in the majors.

Are they different companies? Or do they have different approaches to gathering the data? Or both?

[ChrisP]

Enjoyed the interview. Thanks for doing it!

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m think I’m a little bit unclear on, is the difference between track man and statcast. If I understand correctly, track man is only used in the minors, and statcast is only used in the majors.

Are they different companies? Or do they have different approaches to gathering the data? Or both?

TrackMan uses a Doppler radar system that is used by Statcast along with high speed camera's to develop their Stacast information. Trackman only is used in the minor leagues. Trackman is owned by it's own company while Stacast is part of MLBam. At least that's how I understand it. 

[Tx Oriole]

30 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m think I’m a little bit unclear on, is the difference between track man and statcast. If I understand correctly, track man is only used in the minors, and statcast is only used in the majors.

Are they different companies? Or do they have different approaches to gathering the data? Or both?

I don’t understand any of it. It’s all over my aged head. 

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

It's probably something close!