Of Rebuilding. Of Tanking?

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, allquixotic said:

We can't build a baseball team around a strategy of picking up one free possibly good player per year. We need to acquire or develop something like 6 or 7 legitimately good players per year to compete.

Nobody acquires six or seven legitimately good players a year on a consistent basis.

[BohKnowsBmore]

37 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I wish more people would understand this.  It's not about a single game, it's not about a 2 week stretch.  It's not about winning a game, 2 week cold streaks, 2 weeks hot streaks, pitchers going 4 IP, or anything else so trivial.

It's about getting to 2022 with a product that can start to represent something competitive.  It's about draft day and the deadline.  And it's about the Tides, Baysox and Frederick.

Don’t forget Delmarva! Some of our most intriguing are down there.  

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I wish more people would understand this.  It's not about a single game, it's not about a 2 week stretch.  It's not about winning a game, 2 week cold streaks, 2 weeks hot streaks, pitchers going 4 IP, or anything else so trivial.

It's about getting to 2022 with a product that can start to represent something competitive.  It's about draft day and the deadline.  And it's about the Tides, Baysox and Frederick.

Well the Baysox are the worst.  Anyway it is also about providing a major league quality team. I stopped watching the games.  What is the point? We have no prospects on the team.  Just a bunch of waiver claims, rule 5 picks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mancini is below replacement level by the end of the season.  I think Villar is our only real major league quality player. 

[atomic]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You just have to abandon all expectations. We’re essentially forced to play the season like it’s ST. 3-4 IP from our starters. Wilkerson in CF for the first time. The hope is that some players emerge. 

No one is going to emerge.  You think a bunch of guys who have been DFA'd repeatedly are suddenly going to emerge at 28?

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nobody acquires six or seven legitimately good players a year on a consistent basis.

Dang, there you go, using facts.

Now, you know, thats not how we roll here.

[Camden_yardbird]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Well the Baysox are the worst.  Anyway it is also about providing a major league quality team. I stopped watching the games.  What is the point? We have no prospects on the team.  Just a bunch of waiver claims, rule 5 picks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mancini is below replacement level by the end of the season.  I think Villar is our only real major league quality player. 

So you are frustrated watching the team lose.  Look I get it.  I want them to win too, to walk off Boston, to be good.  I also want to see prospects too.  But I don't want to see them rush prospects to try and scratch out 2 more wins.

I dont want to see them yo-yo some guy until he loses all confidence and they give up on him.

Mike Elias was brought in because this is the thing he his best at,  knowing when a player is ready.

And please stop creating these straw men that players are going to be bad without supporting it with some evidence to the fact.  If you want to show me Mancinis exit velocity has been slowly dropping after a hot start, maybe I will believe you.  But baseless conclusions dont work.

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So you are frustrated watching the team lose.  Look I get it.  I want them to win too, to walk off Boston, to be good.  I also want to see prospects too.  But I don't want to see them rush prospects to try and scratch out 2 more wins.

I dont want to see them yo-yo some guy until he loses all confidence and they give up on him.

Mike Elias was brought in because this is the thing he his best at,  knowing when a player is ready.

And please stop creating these straw men that players are going to be bad without supporting it with some evidence to the fact.  If you want to show me Mancinis exit velocity has been slowly dropping after a hot start, maybe I will believe you.  But baseless conclusions dont work.

Well said, Most of us knew this year would be hard, yet at times, better to watch than last season.

Elias needs 3 years to really implant his "system" on this team, and I suspect each year, will show improvement over the previous.

[Oriole1940]

2 hours ago, allquixotic said:

The sad thing is, there's an enormously high chance that each of those #1 picks will either wash out, won't have staying power, or will get hurt before they're able to make a career out of it.

We can't build a baseball team around a strategy of picking up one free possibly good player per year. We need to acquire or develop something like 6 or 7 legitimately good players per year to compete. The 2014 O's didn't win because of the #1 picks we had on our team. They won because of Delmon Young, Chris Tillman, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and so many others we had picked up in trades or developed into good players. They won because of a critical mass of players with very timely results, many playing above expectations, doing better than their career numbers or having a career year.

Even if each year's #1 prospect turns into a Manny, and we pick each one, I don't think we would be a very good team. Let's say in the 2020 draft we pick a historically good 1B; 2021, a historically good SS; 2022, a historically good CF; 2023, a historically good SP. Let's say they all get to the majors in short order and are ready to break out immediately. OK, so what? If the rest of the team is as bad as they are right now, they have zero chance to compete. Even if they hold a lead for a couple innings, the pen will give it right back up. Our 2B, 3B, LF, RF, C, DH won't ever get on base or hit home runs. Optimistically, we might get to .500 in a season because of the extraordinary performance of four guys.

I think if -- if -- we get that lucky and have four amazing guys in the early to mid 2020s, we should trade them as soon as their high value is established. Basically it would be like trading Manny in the 2016 offseason, or even 2015. Get rid of them, and get a package deal of ML-ready or nearly ML-ready players with high upside in return. We don't need 4 Babe Ruths; we need 30 Chris Tillmans and Adam Joneses. We need players who are pretty good in their prime, but not HOFers. We have neither the farm system nor the budget of teams that could hope to stack up a team of hero after hero like the Dodgers and Yankees, who simply buy their way into a World Series. Our only chance of seeing the postseason is to build a "good enough" club of scrappy, nominally effective players and hope the dice are in our favor in the postseason against the elite clubs.

This is my thinking for the most part.  Dreaming that a #1 draft pick or even a couple #1 picks will send the Orioles to the World Series or even Playoffs is just that, a long term dream.  And if it does work  out that way, it is likely a one time fluke. A winning team should be built with  excellence up the middle.  That is P, C, SS, 2nd base, and CF.   And I believe new management is trying to do just that.   The Babe Ruth/ Chris Tillman  comparison is really a good example.    Several good players are better than 1 H of F player or 2.    Of course, it is the hardest to do, but no real Gain comes without real Pain.

[Redskins Rick]

14 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

This is my thinking for the most part.  Dreaming that a #1 draft pick or even a couple #1 picks will send the Orioles to the World Series or even Playoffs is just that, a long term dream.  And if it does work  out that way, it is likely a one time fluke. A winning team should be built with  excellence up the middle.  That is P, C, SS, 2nd base, and CF.   And I believe new management is trying to do just that.   The Babe Ruth/ Chris Tillman  comparison is really a good example.    Several good players are better than 1 H of F player or 2.    Of course, it is the hardest to do, but no real Gain comes without real Pain.

Look at the team that MacPhail / DD put together. They had a darn good 5 year run, wish they had a WS, but ALCs is nothing to sneeze about.

To think, what they was able to do, inspite of key injuries and suspension, tells you that it can be done without a handful of superstar studs.

 

[Aglets]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Well the Baysox are the worst.  Anyway it is also about providing a major league quality team. I stopped watching the games.  What is the point? We have no prospects on the team.  Just a bunch of waiver claims, rule 5 picks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mancini is below replacement level by the end of the season.  I think Villar is our only real major league quality player. 

a player with a .941 OPS through 147 plate appearances you think might be below replacement level this year?    Man I'd love to see what advanced metrics you have access to that apparently no one else does.

He is on a 4-5 WAR pace right now assuming he stays healthy.    Not saying I expect him to keep up that pace, but I expect him to have a pretty good year.

[interloper]

9 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Is there really anyone in the MiL we could bring up now who would make that much of a differece?

In order to make a difference it would have to be several pitchers and they would all have to be excellent. So. Nope!

[Redskins Rick]

Hopefully this is not us in 55 years.

[El Gordo]

51 minutes ago, interloper said:

In order to make a difference it would have to be several pitchers and they would all have to be excellent. So. Nope!

I agree except I;d say more than several.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

a player with a .941 OPS through 147 plate appearances you think might be below replacement level this year?    Man I'd love to see what advanced metrics you have access to that apparently no one else does.

He is on a 4-5 WAR pace right now assuming he stays healthy.    Not saying I expect him to keep up that pace, but I expect him to have a pretty good year.

He was negative WAR last year.  And he is terrible on defense.  I expect him go back to norm.

[ChosenOne21]

15 minutes ago, atomic said:

He was negative WAR last year.  And he is terrible on defense.  I expect him go back to norm.

Why is last year the norm and not this year?