Mancini Trade Package

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, Sydnor said:

Fangraphs has articles about prospect valuation, and how it plays into trades:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

Using MLB Pipeline’s rankings Valera is a 50, Oviedo is a 50, and Hankins is a 50. That’s probably too high. Fangraphs has Valera as a 50, Oviedo as a 45, and Hankins as a 40+. While I don’t think this is necessarily the gospel, Fangraphs says that a 50 position player is worth $28 million, a 45 pitcher is worth $4 million, and a 40+ pitcher is worth $3 million. Thus, Cleveland would probably want at least $35 million in surplus value for that package. Mancini was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2017 and -.2 fWAR in 2018. This year he has been worth 1.3 fWAR so far. If Mancini settles in at 2 wins per year, and he’s paid about $20 million over the next 3 years, he will have surplus value of only $15 million. That’s one reason why I think a trade like this is unlikely.

That being said I enjoy watching Trey play. I also hope he can bring a package like this to the team and think that despite his limitations he does have some value.

These valuations don't sufficiently factor in the risk issues involved with the developmental risks of an 18 year old, a 19 year old and a 20 year old versus a proven major league performer, imho.   In fact all three prospects could not even make the major leagues and that is not an  unlikely outcome much less any of them reaching the level of achievement of even a 2 wins a year contribution.   This is part of my problem with the current model of directly translating dollar value based on projections in the lowest age ranges of developmental prospects.  Not only do I think it is inaccurate, it is worse than tea leaves, imho.   I hope ME's analytics are more advanced. 

[bpilktree]

Cleveland makes the most sense they need some offense are still trying to win but also don't want to add payroll.  That keeps them away from the older rental guys that would increase their payroll.  They also have a really deep farm system that have a few guys that are young and not needed to be added to our 40 man roster, however they probally don't want to give up all guys just brought in as this was a big part of their strong system with the people they signed in the international signing period.  This would also help keep their payroll down in the future so i doubt they want to give up 2 or 3 super young and talanted guys.  I would look more at a 1 or 2 guys that are very young and then some depth in our upper affiliates.  

Mancini for 

SS Yu Chang  He has some upside but has been blocked by Lindor but could start at SS or 2nd for us.  He has some pop but also some swing and miss in the swing.  I expect Villar to be traded at some point and i don't see Martin as a major league SS in the future as the bat doesn't look like it will play.  We are thin up the middle and Chang could help fill some of that.

RHP Luis Oviedo   He is a young starter that got a nice singing bonus in the international signing period.  He is a high upside high risk type that is in the lower minors and a few years away.

RHP Carlos Vargas  He is another young international signing with a big arm and some high upside and high risk.  Another guy a few years away that we can keep in the minors awhile and hopefully build him up.

RHP  Aaron Civale  He is a starter in double this year and doing decent after an injury to start the year.  He came on late as a college and the cape cod.  He was then drafted in the third round in 2016 and has progressed pretty well.  Why i like him is he is a high spin guy which is something Elias has seemed to like in the Astros organization.  

This would give us one guy that is major league ready a starter that is not a high upside guy but also a low floor along with two lottery tickets of guys that are high upside high risk.  

[Camden_yardbird]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just a quick look, but here’s where I think Mancini could be a fit,

TB - 1B (Choi)

Clev - COF/1B/DH

Oak - COF

After that, I don’t know if there is really a market.  Oak and TB are usually never “buyers”.  Clev will likely roll with what they have.  

 

 

So I think there are a number of issues with the approach of looking for immediate need in starting line ups.  First obviously, it doesnt account for injuries.  Second, it doesnt account for the fact that playoff teams are looking for depth.  Third, it doesnt account for the long term value of Mancini, the control a team has.

Finally, and I can't stress this enough, is that it is foolish to assume that teams trading to compete act rationally, act with metrics in mind at all times, and act with their best long term interests in mind.  I think teams do more of this but the playoffs is a cruel and tantalizing drug.  

TB.  While maybe an immediate offensive upgrade could be had, Choi provides plus OBP and Defense.  Long term Nate Lowe looks ready to take over.

Cle.  Obviously there are a number of fits here. Mancini looks like a more complete offensive version of Jake Bauers.  Their high K staff could discount the negative of Mancinis defense.  They need the offense.

Oak.  I would counter the argument that Oakland doesnt trade.  They do particularly when they are in it.  They are a wildcard as they churn players and had a similar player in Ryon Healy on the roster a few years ago.  I would think injury would be necessary though. 

Sea.  You can never discount Sea churning through players.  They are also an injury prone team.  They now have the similarly mentioned Healy but could be interested because well DiPoto.

Phi.  I wouldnt discount the Phillies trying to add to what is a very weak bench.  Any injury at all could create a great need here.

NYM.  Have a gaping hole in LF.  Need offense and do stupid things.  Regularly.

SD.  The Padres are currently depending on some very young hitters in the OF.  If they need offense and think they have a shot a more proven hitter like Mancini could be appealing.

 

[Philip]

11 hours ago, Sydnor said:

Fangraphs has articles about prospect valuation, and how it plays into trades:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

Using MLB Pipeline’s rankings Valera is a 50, Oviedo is a 50, and Hankins is a 50. That’s probably too high. Fangraphs has Valera as a 50, Oviedo as a 45, and Hankins as a 40+. While I don’t think this is necessarily the gospel, Fangraphs says that a 50 position player is worth $28 million, a 45 pitcher is worth $4 million, and a 40+ pitcher is worth $3 million. Thus, Cleveland would probably want at least $35 million in surplus value for that package. Mancini was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2017 and -.2 fWAR in 2018. This year he has been worth 1.3 fWAR so far. If Mancini settles in at 2 wins per year, and he’s paid about $20 million over the next 3 years, he will have surplus value of only $15 million. That’s one reason why I think a trade like this is unlikely.

That being said I enjoy watching Trey play. I also hope he can bring a package like this to the team and think that despite his limitations he does have some value.

That’s a very good comment, but the subsequent one regarding such valuations of very young players is valid.

also we have no idea how a given team values it’s own players. Given information, people interpret it differently.

So if we identify a team that wants/can use Mancini, find out where their own farm is deepest and look for the surplus there. It’s most likely we could get something reasonable from that surplus.

Mancini has value, and is probably more valuable to us as future players than as current production, but still doubtful he would return anything significant. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So I think there are a number of issues with the approach of looking for immediate need in starting line ups.  First obviously, it doesnt account for injuries.  Second, it doesnt account for the fact that playoff teams are looking for depth.  Third, it doesnt account for the long term value of Mancini, the control a team has.

Finally, and I can't stress this enough, is that it is foolish to assume that teams trading to compete act rationally, act with metrics in mind at all times, and act with their best long term interests in mind.  I think teams do more of this but the playoffs is a cruel and tantalizing drug.  

TB.  While maybe an immediate offensive upgrade could be had, Choi provides plus OBP and Defense.  Long term Nate Lowe looks ready to take over.

Cle.  Obviously there are a number of fits here. Mancini looks like a more complete offensive version of Jake Bauers.  Their high K staff could discount the negative of Mancinis defense.  They need the offense.

Oak.  I would counter the argument that Oakland doesnt trade.  They do particularly when they are in it.  They are a wildcard as they churn players and had a similar player in Ryon Healy on the roster a few years ago.  I would think injury would be necessary though. 

Sea.  You can never discount Sea churning through players.  They are also an injury prone team.  They now have the similarly mentioned Healy but could be interested because well DiPoto.

Phi.  I wouldnt discount the Phillies trying to add to what is a very weak bench.  Any injury at all could create a great need here.

NYM.  Have a gaping hole in LF.  Need offense and do stupid things.  Regularly.

SD.  The Padres are currently depending on some very young hitters in the OF.  If they need offense and think they have a shot a more proven hitter like Mancini could be appealing.

 

The Mets are toast, yes they do dumb stuff, so don’t discount them, but I don’t think they can seriously contend and they know it. Much more likely they fold their tents and trade Edwin Diaz.

The Mariners started out historically great. They opened the season with homeruns in 15 or 18 consecutive games, but boy have they come back to Earth. They also have to make it through the Rangers, and they have to catch the Rays, Red Sox/Yankees, and Maybe Cleveland too. Plus they already have a solid DH/1B in Dan Vogelbach, who is basically a clone of Mancini but younger, better on D, and with two additional years of control.Not gonna happen.

I don’t think Oakland wants a one-dimensional player, and Beane is a shrewd trader.

SD is a possibility but they need pitching.

interesting times ahead...

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I've said it before..Ill say it again. KEEP MANCINI!!!

I'll say it again.  You also wanted us to keep Davis and Trumbo.

For that one poster, I know Roy isn't a decision maker for the team.

[LookinUp]

44 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I've said it before..Ill say it again. KEEP MANCINI!!!

I interpret this post as advocating a trade of Mountcastle. I kid, sort of. It's hard to have too many one-dimensional guys on the team. Maybe Mountcastle does move to left and is effective. That would be the best case scenario.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I interpret this post as advocating a trade of Mountcastle. I kid, sort of. It's hard to have too many one-dimensional guys on the team. Maybe Mountcastle does move to left and is effective. That would be the best case scenario.

Naw, just put surplus in the outfield.

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, just put surplus in the outfield.

If Mountcastle could play outfield, we could have our outfield of the future all at AA or above right now. That's not even including Smith and Stewart. It would be nice to have a true CF in the mix, but I'm not bullish on that at the moment. 

[Yardball85]

On 5/25/2019 at 2:52 PM, Cy Bundy said:

I would trade him for the Sally League pitcher of the week for the 2 week of June - if that prospect is one of our own, the deal is still on.

 

Joke?  Why the hate on Mancini?

[LookinUp]

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/05/28/the-ross-grimsley-show-may-28-2019

 

Quote

 

Mancini is a fan favorite on a team that doesn't have many options, and the Orioles don't have to move him right now. Again, he has three arbitration years remaining, and perhaps other teams out there aren't sold on this current version. It's not like Mancini is about to head out the door, so there's no need to panic. 

 

Still, refusing to at least explore what Mancini could bring back would be silly. In all likelihood, it wouldn't be a game-changing package of prospects. But things change, and it only takes one team to get enamored with a certain player. 

 

Mancini has a lot going for him, but he's not a star player who the O's need to build around. He's a bat-first player who's unable to regularly play where he fits in best, and he's about to get more expensive starting next season. Keeping him around for a while longer would be an acceptable consolation prize, but it would be even better to get an intriguing return to supplement the organization's other prospect acquisition efforts.

 

Decent article. One angle I just thought of that's not raised by most is Elias betting on Mancini. By that, I mean that Elias believes the bat is under rated and holds out for a very strong offer. I don't know if that's likely, but it could mean that Mancini is both not part of our rebuild plans and around until this off season or next trade deadline.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/05/28/the-ross-grimsley-show-may-28-2019

 

Decent article. One angle I just thought of that's not raised by most is Elias betting on Mancini. By that, I mean that Elias believes the bat is under rated and holds out for a very strong offer. I don't know if that's likely, but it could mean that Mancini is both not part of our rebuild plans and around until this off season or next trade deadline.

 

It doesn’t make sense to trade Mancini unless Elias gets a strong offer. Better to hold onto a productive hitter than trade him for a mediocre prospect. 

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It doesn’t make sense to trade Mancini unless Elias gets a strong offer. Better to hold onto a productive hitter than trade him for a mediocre prospect. 

Of course. The question is about how strong the offer is. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Of course. The question is about how strong the offer is. 

In my mind Elias needs to be confident he is getting a starter in return or pitcher with a very good arm. Otherwise I keep Mancini.

[Natty]

I say we keep him. I see him hitting 30 HR and batting .300 this year. Then his value will sky rocket.