An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

[Jammer7]

On 11/28/2019 at 3:23 AM, ShoelesJoe said:

The debate over whether to take Hancock or Torkelson (assuming there's no shake up at the top of the draft class, and that Martin goes #1 to the Tigers) is interesting. The player with more potential (Hancock) is also the player who is more likely to crash and burn. The guy with the lower ceiling (Torkelson) will probably have a better chance to reach that ceiling. Such a conundrum.

Since 1991 the Orioles have drafted 21 pitchers before the second round, and I believe the best of the lot was Kevin Gausman and his 10 WAR in 6 seasons as an Oriole.  Most of those 21 never pitched an inning at the major league level. That's a miserable rate of success, and a prime reason the Orioles have been bottom dwellers for most of that time. Somebody stated previously in this thread that the failure of our vaunted "Cavalry" back in the day proved that you can never have enough pitching. IMO it proved the exact opposite: drafting a lot of pitching (especially at the top of the draft) is a fool's game. Too many young pitchers get hurt and/or fail to provide meaningful value at the major league level for a team in the Orioles' present position to gamble on that choice. 

Just pulling numbers and comparisons out of thin air for the purpose of discussion -- let's say the team calculates that Hancock has a 50% chance of being Beau Hale , a 40% chance of being Dylan Bundy, and a 10% chance of being Gerrit Cole. While Torkelson has a 30% chance of being Billy Rowell, a 40% chance of being Trey Mancini, and a 30% chance of being Paul Konerko. Who do you take?

In that scenario I take the position player every time.

I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier.

I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.

[Luke-OH]

31 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier.

I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.

Ed Howard is really the only prep guy on my radar that is a 1-2 consideration at this point. The bat needs to take a step, but the potential is there. All the interesting outfielders are either corner guys or without impact bat potential.

[sportsfan8703]

2019: Rutschman

2020: Hancock or Martin

2021: Rocker

That’s a good way to start a rebuild. 

[Spl51]

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-2020-mlb-draft-prospects?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mock-draft-top-10-picks-projection?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Projecting us to pick Torkelson here.

[TheOtherRipken]

On 12/3/2019 at 11:14 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

2019: Rutschman

2020: Hancock or Martin

2021: Rocker

That’s a good way to start a rebuild. 

Not to mention our competitive balance pick this year is basically another first round pick.  Opportunities are there, let's hope we capitalize. 

[baltfan]

Feel like we are in a no lose position.  Likely either get Martin or Hancock.  There are merits to either being added to our system.

[sportsfan8703]

There’s no way we pass on Hancock for a 1B. Elias isn’t that scared. We also have 7 months till the draft. 

[Greg Pappas]

Like many of us have reiterated, it's still early in the process (heck, it's in the thread title  ).  We'll start a new thread in the Spring as the HS and college seasons get underway and we'll be excited to see how things unfold.

 

[Spl51]

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2019/12/4/mlb-2020-mock-draft-10

They have us picking Hancock here. It's kind of just a roll of dice who we will pick there now out of the top 3.

The top 3 is basically locked I think. I've watched a lot of videos on most of the top 15, and I'm pretty sure none of them are gonna challenge the top 3.

 

[Luke-OH]

21 hours ago, Spl51 said:

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2019/12/4/mlb-2020-mock-draft-10

They have us picking Hancock here. It's kind of just a roll of dice who we will pick there now out of the top 3.

The top 3 is basically locked I think. I've watched a lot of videos on most of the top 15, and I'm pretty sure none of them are gonna challenge the top 3.

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

[7Mo]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

Curious what you think about Cole Wilcox, Hancock's teammate who might be available at 31.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Curious what you think about Cole Wilcox, Hancock's teammate who might be available at 31.

I think he'd be good value there if healthy and throwing strikes, but he really doesn't fit the profile of a guy this front office will be big on. I think someone like Kyle Nicolas would be more likely if they go with an arm at 31 or 40. 

But I think it's most likely that the trend of premium bats, profile arms continues. 

[Spl51]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Just wait until Ed Howard comes out driving the ball this spring or Reid Detmers gains a couple ticks of velocity or Zamora’s bat takes off. Not saying those things will happen, but there are guys who could jump into that top 3 discussion. Plus I’d argue Gonzales should already be in that discussion.

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

 

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Gonzales is a distant fourth for me. I see an average second baseman, average runner, average to above average power, with plus contact at most and no projection. To me his stance and swing are really stiff, leading to him being pull happy. 

The other guys would need to prove a lot to make it worth the risk.

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

[joelala]

On 12/13/2019 at 9:46 AM, Luke-OH said:

From what I've seen of Gonzales, he's not pull happy at all, although it may behoove him to try to be, ala Alex Bregman. But it's a high effort swing, but it hasn't given him any trouble vs velocity and while it's not that loose, easy motion, his hands/wrists aren't stiff, they are very quick and agile. 

He has more present raw and game than Martin and currently are pretty much equal on the defensive spectrum. I like Martin more, I think there's more ceiling, but Gonzales is probably just as good at the moment. 

Agreed, Gonzalez’ swing looks very good to me. It’s very quiet, which may be why it looks stiff to some. I think it’s much better than Howard’s presently...