Pitcher Development - Keegan Akin

[LookinUp]

This is about minor league pitching development, but I think it's great reading on the Orioles Talk board. Mods, feel free to move if you'd like. I highly recommend the full article, which is here: 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minors-keegan-akin-20190807-bgg54gmvqbgi7e5ku63da4scr4-story.html

Quote

Keegan Akin was the best pitcher in the Eastern League last season, and shared the distinction of being the best pitcher in the Orioles’ minor league system as well.Those honors might have one day earned him a quick promotion to Camden Yards. Instead, he’s spent the year at Triple-A Norfolk trying to refashion the pitcher who dominated the lower levels into one who can succeed at the highest level.

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“I kind of had that idea coming in, especially coming out of spring training, that I was basically coming here to develop,” Akin said. “I obviously wasn’t going to get by on one pitch, so I accepted that and totally understood that. I didn’t have three pitches in any count coming out of spring training. It was, basically, if it was 3-1 or 2-0, you might as well just sit fastball because you’re going to get a fastball. And I knew that.”

While he says he’s still in the “development stages” of being comfortable with all that, pitching coach Mike Griffin said the way he’s approached the season makes the results far less meaningful than the work.

 

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When the longtime Tides pitching coach and one of his youngest arms meet between starts, they look at video and data that reinforces that. They’ll compare his pitch-usage in certain counts over his last few starts with what it was when he first arrived in Norfolk, and the results, he said, are “exciting.”“No one gets to the big leagues as a starter with one or two pitches,” Akin said. “You’re going to need at least three of them, and you’re going to have to throw them whenever you want. That’s kind of been the focus, and trying to work towards that and be able to do it is fun, but challenging at the same time. Hopefully, it all pans out and works out in the long run.”

 

 

 

[interloper]

Sure could use even a mid-4's ERA starter during the rebuild. I hope he can solidify a spot. He sure won't do it with just a fastball, so I'm glad they've got him working on his repertoire. 

[TGO]

Makes you wonder how the previous regime could let a one-pitch starter get all the way through AA.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, TGO said:

Makes you wonder how the previous regime could let a one-pitch starter get all the way through AA.

He's not and was not a one pitch starter, it's just he wasn't comfortable throwing the slider or changeup behind in the count. He's still not good at that, but he's trying to. The slider and changeup are quality pitches and haven't improved this year, it's just about feel for throwing them for strikes in any count. 

[HowAboutThat]

15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He's not and was not a one pitch starter, it's just he wasn't comfortable throwing the slider or changeup behind in the count. He's still not good at that, but he's trying to. The slider and changeup are quality pitches and haven't improved this year, it's just about feel for throwing them for strikes in any count. 

Is he a September callup?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Is he a September callup?

If he's healthy (only saying that because his velocity has been down some of late), yeah. He has to be added to the 40 man this off-season anyways to protect him from the rule 5 draft. 

[LookinUp]

It's a very refreshing article, IMO. Part of it is our organization has the benefit of time. There's no more aggressive approach to prospects that would turn this year's team into a winner, so take your time with these guys and work with them on what's important in the minors.

I do like that they're willing to take lumps in terms of wins and losses, or ERA, or WHIP, in the minors. They know that they're essentially asking him to change his approach so he can hopefully have more success moving forward. It's hard to change what has worked for you over the last however many years. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's a very refreshing article, IMO. Part of it is our organization has the benefit of time. There's no more aggressive approach to prospects that would turn this year's team into a winner, so take your time with these guys and work with them on what's important in the minors.

I do like that they're willing to take lumps in terms of wins and losses, or ERA, or WHIP, in the minors. They know that they're essentially asking him to change his approach so he can hopefully have more success moving forward. It's hard to change what has worked for you over the last however many years. 

I think Hanifee and Hall also are being developed to rely on their secondary pitches more than they would if their goal was to lead the Carolina League in ERA.

[Tony-OH]

Earlier in the year his stuff had taken a step up, particularly the velocity of the fastball and slider depth. While his slider depth has still been pretty good, he's not commanding it as well and his fastball velocity has taken a step back of late.

It would be fantastic if he could end up a start in the big leagues, but he's starting to give me a reliever vibe, but a darn good one. Either way, he's a major leaguer for me.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think Hanifee and Hall also are being developed to rely on their secondary pitches more than they would if their goal was to lead the Carolina League in ERA.

Agree. I suspect this is pretty consistently true across the system, though I imagine there are variations in an individual's development plan.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Earlier in the year his stuff had taken a step up, particularly the velocity of the fastball and slider depth. While his slider depth has still been pretty good, he's not commanding it as well and his fastball velocity has taken a step back of late.

It would be fantastic if he could end up a start in the big leagues, but he's starting to give me a reliever vibe, but a darn good one. Either way, he's a major leaguer for me.

Just curious, in scouting, do you guard against a recency bias or otherwise try to account for it?

I ask because it seems like you're saying his early 2019 stuff was higher caliber and you're projecting based on his more current stuff. 

I'm genuinely asking how to weigh these factors. As a fan, I want to believe that his April stuff is the real guy moving forward, and he's just going through something like a dead arm period now. As an evaluator, I have no idea what I'd think, lol.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Hanifee and Hall also are being developed to rely on their secondary pitches more than they would if their goal was to lead the Carolina League in ERA.

The problem with Hanifee is his changeup stinks and his command of his slider isn't good. Hall's slider, curveball, and changeup are all quite good, so while it's led to more walks, he's been extremely dominant as far as missing bats and preventing quality contact. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Just curious, in scouting, do you guard against a recency bias or otherwise try to account for it?

I ask because it seems like you're saying his early 2019 stuff was higher caliber and you're projecting based on his more current stuff. 

I'm genuinely asking how to weigh these factors. As a fan, I want to believe that his April stuff is the real guy moving forward, and he's just going through something like a dead arm period now. As an evaluator, I have no idea what I'd think, lol.

With stats/performance, you try and completely avoid recency bias.

With a pitcher's stuff or anything about a player's profile, you have to pay attention to changes because they can mean something long term. You don't forget that Keegan Akin was t96 with some frequency in his early starts but you do have some concern when a couple starts go by and he's topping out at 92-93. The version of Keegan Akin that sits 92-94 t96 is notably better than the 89-91 t93 version. It's all on a spectrum of possibilities. How likely it is that he'll be the better version of himself or the lessor going forward. 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Just curious, in scouting, do you guard against a recency bias or otherwise try to account for it?

I ask because it seems like you're saying his early 2019 stuff was higher caliber and you're projecting based on his more current stuff. 

I'm genuinely asking how to weigh these factors. As a fan, I want to believe that his April stuff is the real guy moving forward, and he's just going through something like a dead arm period now. As an evaluator, I have no idea what I'd think, lol.

For me, I look for trends and of course most importantly, consistency. Does he normally drop off late in the year, or is this something different. 

What we know is that there is a quality major league stuff in there, but the question is whether it can be consistently in there and does he wear down? One of the drawbacks I had with pitchers like Tanner Scott, and Jimmy Yacabonis is that they both can carry plus major league stuff at times, but they are not consistent. Neither can command the baseball enough to be successful consistently. 

For me, Akin has shown me a plus fastball and slider at times along with an average change, but his command has been inconsistent of all three and now the velocity has fallen off a bit. Could be a bit of tired arm or he could be working on a new grip or something. It's hard to know.

 

[LookinUp]

Thanks Tony/Luke. Really helps me understand what to expect from Akin in terms of what's possible.