What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re going to lose 100 games in 2020. I think we should be trying to acquire as many assets for 2022 and beyond. 

These 100+ seasons are ugly, but we should be trading away guys that won’t be here in 2022+ as soon as they reach peak value. 

I do like the idea that Villar helps the lineup out tremendously. He helps Mancini. Takes pressure off anyone else having to hit lead off. Allows other players to slot into their right slots. I think Alberto could fill in though. 

Have you forgotten that Alex Cobb will be healthy and back on the bump next season?

 

[weams]

What value in excess of his arbitrated salary does anyone think Villar has?  I would like to hear what anyone thinks the surplus value to trade might be. 

[NCRaven]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I do like the idea that Villar helps the lineup out tremendously. He helps Mancini. 

If we trade Villar, we might well trade Mancini, too.  

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, weams said:

What value in excess of his arbitrated salary does anyone think Villar has?  I would like to hear what anyone thinks the surplus value to trade might be. 

He's a two-and-a-half win player.  He's going to get paid, what, $7M in arb.  Or something like that.  So he's worth $15-20M, and he'll be paid $7M.  His surplus value is $8-13M, or around that.  Let's call it $10M.

That's a little over a win in free agency.  That's the value of the #30 overall pick on draft day.  Or a lesser player after he's run the gauntlet of a few levels of the minors.  So, what... maybe a single grade B-ish prospect in A or AA?  Someone in the Keegin Akin, Ryan McKenna range, I guess?

[weams]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's a two-and-a-half win player.  He's going to get paid, what, $7M in arb.  Or something like that.  So he's worth $15-20M, and he'll be paid $7M.  His surplus value is $8-13M, or around that.  Let's call it $10M.

That's a little over a win in free agency.  That's the value of the #30 overall pick on draft day.  Or a lesser player after he's run the gauntlet of a few levels of the minors.  So, what... maybe a single grade B-ish prospect in A or AA?  Someone in the Keegin Akin, Ryan McKenna range, I guess?

Good Analysis. 

[Frobby]

From Fangraphs, a long piece analyzing Villar:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/has-jonathan-villar-played-himself-out-of-baltimore/

The full article is worth a read.  Here’s the end part.

Simply non-tendering him seems unthinkable after a four-win season, so it stands to reason Baltimore would shop him aggressively this winter. That larger salary will likely limit which teams are willing to trade for him, which could make the ultimate prospect price even lower than it initially would have been. A move for Villar won’t change anyone’s offseason, but considering his age (he won’t turn 29 until May), his effectiveness at his position, and his recent wink toward becoming a more well-rounded offensive contributor, he would be a smart low-risk addition for any team looking to improve up the middle.

[mdbdotcom]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From Fangraphs, a long piece analyzing Villar:  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/has-jonathan-villar-played-himself-out-of-baltimore/

The full article is worth a read.  Here’s the end part.

Simply non-tendering him seems unthinkable after a four-win season, so it stands to reason Baltimore would shop him aggressively this winter. That larger salary will likely limit which teams are willing to trade for him, which could make the ultimate prospect price even lower than it initially would have been. A move for Villar won’t change anyone’s offseason, but considering his age (he won’t turn 29 until May), his effectiveness at his position, and his recent wink toward becoming a more well-rounded offensive contributor, he would be a smart low-risk addition for any team looking to improve up the middle.

O's could add a few million to sweeten the pot and improve the prospect return.

[interloper]

On 9/18/2019 at 11:49 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

He's a two-and-a-half win player.  He's going to get paid, what, $7M in arb.  Or something like that.  So he's worth $15-20M, and he'll be paid $7M.  His surplus value is $8-13M, or around that.  Let's call it $10M.

That's a little over a win in free agency.  That's the value of the #30 overall pick on draft day.  Or a lesser player after he's run the gauntlet of a few levels of the minors.  So, what... maybe a single grade B-ish prospect in A or AA?  Someone in the Keegin Akin, Ryan McKenna range, I guess?

Agree with everything here except this. 

[Aristotelian]

On 9/18/2019 at 11:49 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

He's a two-and-a-half win player.  He's going to get paid, what, $7M in arb.  Or something like that.  So he's worth $15-20M, and he'll be paid $7M.  His surplus value is $8-13M, or around that.  Let's call it $10M.

That's a little over a win in free agency.  That's the value of the #30 overall pick on draft day.  Or a lesser player after he's run the gauntlet of a few levels of the minors.  So, what... maybe a single grade B-ish prospect in A or AA?  Someone in the Keegin Akin, Ryan McKenna range, I guess?

I think someone mentioned the Jim Johnson trade as a comp, although he was coming off more of a 1+ WAR season. We got Jemile Weeks back in that one. MLB ready but with a low ceiling. I'd rather have someone's Keegan Akin to be honest.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Agree with everything here except this. 

I agree he’ll get more than $7 mm, but the $10.3 mm projected by MLBTR is unrealistically high IMO. Somewhere between $8.5 - 9.25 mm if I had to guess.    

[sportsfan8703]

I keep saying Villar is a "poor man's" Didi this offseason.  On a one year deal, Villar is a pretty good deal.  I also would not be surprised if we got some calls about Pedro Severino.  Catching is always at a premium.  Plus the typical points you can make about trading any of our players.  They'll be expensive by the time we're good again, if they're even still here.  

[Ruzious]

On ‎11‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 3:26 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

I keep saying Villar is a "poor man's" Didi this offseason.  On a one year deal, Villar is a pretty good deal.  I also would not be surprised if we got some calls about Pedro Severino.  Catching is always at a premium.  Plus the typical points you can make about trading any of our players.  They'll be expensive by the time we're good again, if they're even still here.  

Let's see what Didi gets in free agency.  If he gets very little attention, that will say a mouthful as to Villar's trade value.  Didi's coming off a bad hitting season for him, but he had the best fielding % of his career - which was tops in the AL.     

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Let's see what Didi gets in free agency.  If he gets very little attention, that will say a mouthful as to Villar's trade value.  Didi's coming off a bad hitting season for him, but he had the best fielding % of his career - which was tops in the AL.     

His fielding percentage may have been good, but the advanced metric didn’t like his performance. Personally I’d cut him some slack coming back midseason while recovering from TJ surgery.   But, I doubt his next contract exceeds 2-3 years.   

[sportsfan8703]

Since I’m Villar’s Agent this year, here’s some teams that could be fits for him and why,

- Cubs - they’ve been linked to trying to acquire Whit Merrifield. Villar would be cheaper in terms of prospects, and long term commitment. He just doesn’t offer OF versatility. 

- Reds - They’ve been linked to Didi. They missed on Grandal. They’re trying to win now but may realize they aren’t a premium FA destination spot. Villar for recently drafted 3B Rece Hinds, makes a lot of sense. 

- White Sox - They just DFAd 2B Yolmer Sanchez. He was a GG 2B, but offered little with the bat. They are also a team trying to win now. 

- Yankees - A Didi alternative. 

- A’s - Villar would be a top of the lineup upgrade over Profar, who they would DFA or trade. 

- Twins - Schoop is a FA. Villar’s bat would fit nicely into that lineup. 

- Indians - They only have journeyman Mike Freeman for 2B at the moment. Are they still “contending”?

Villar has some trade value. SH, vet, leadoff bat, with speed. He’d make a lot of those lineups look real good. 

[Ruzious]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

His fielding percentage may have been good, but the advanced metric didn’t like his performance. Personally I’d cut him some slack coming back midseason while recovering from TJ surgery.   But, I doubt his next contract exceeds 2-3 years.   

I'd cut him a lot of slack for that, but that's besides the point - being that it's clear that Didi is at a higher level as a SS than Villar is - I don't think anyone disagrees with that - and because of that - if he gets very little attention in free agency, that's an indication that Villar has very little trade value.