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Who Will Have the Higher Trade Value This Offseason, Alberto or Villar?


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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

That really is a fascinating possibility. We let a very good player walk away for nothing because he's getting moderately expensive, and we expect to be a bad team, and we assess that he doesn't have high trade value. A pure money based decision. 

I'm not saying that won't happen, but I think the pure money plays are easier when you don't already have the guy (e.g., avoid signing Villar types in FA). It would be pretty crazy for the O's to just let him go for nothing and accept the certain downgrade to the lineup. It would make sense financially, but I don't see them going that far into the money ball/analytics/cold front office direction.

People defended the canceling of Fanfest saying it was worth it if the team reinvested the money elsewhere. I'm not sure how this is any different. Villar isn't part of the long term future of this team. As long as they give players like Hays and Mountcastle a shot at making the opening day roster, I honestly don't care if thy let Villar go. Even if they reinvested that money short term in a 1 year deal for a veteran pitcher I'd be fine with it. I can't handle another season of sign them to a minor league deal reclamation projects. 

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Basically, they need to determine if his free agent market value would exceed what he’d get in arbitration.   If so, they should be able to trade him for something of value rather than releasing him.    If not, then I suppose they’d be better off nontendering him and getting something cheaper on the open market.    Looks like the O’s could pick up Schoop for a fraction of what Villar would cost, for example.   

I honestly don't see any scenario where it makes sense for this team to sign a position player free agent. Starting pitching is the only thing they might be able to justify and even then we're talking one year deals. 

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55 minutes ago, OldNewGuy said:

This team is going to be bad for at least 3-4 more years. In keeping with the PLAN, let Villar walk and sign 18 sixteen year olds. One of them might turn out to be a big league player when the team is next good.

 

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ideally the team is not bad by 2022.  AR, Hall and Rodriguez should be up by then.

I agree with CoC.    Also we have a number of lesser pitching prospects who may chip in by then.   I actually think 2021 will be quite interesting, though I’m not expecting a winning team that year.    

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Villar is a quality baseball player and was one of the most fun players to watch this season.  Also at times one of the most frustrating.  Wildbillhiccup, your idea that he is moved or just allowed to walk may well be one of the first insights to just how driven the analytical guys are going to be here.  We know we are moving down a path that will take us from one of the least analytical teams in baseball...but how far...and how quickly will we see?  To me this is one of, if not the big storylines of the offseason.  Well, until the Rule V Draft.

58 minutes ago, OldNewGuy said:

This team is going to be bad for at least 3-4 more years. In keeping with the PLAN, let Villar walk and sign 18 sixteen year olds. One of them might turn out to be a big league player when the team is next good.

And I don't think it will be 4 more years of bad, but I do think it will be 4 more before they could be really good.  So investing in some 16 yr olds is not a bad thing...if they let him walk.

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Top shortstops and second basemen on the FA market this year, per Fangraphs:

Gregorius

Kendrick

Holt 

Schoop

Iglesias

A. Cabrera

Sogard

Not a very impressive or deep list, which is why I think the trade market for Villar should be decent.    

Certainly thin and not shortstops. Of course Villar may not be either. 

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23 minutes ago, weams said:

Certainly thin and not shortstops. Of course Villar may not be either. 

I thought Gregorius was a SS, but the others are not.

SS is not a easy position to find, the demand outweighs the supply of good ones.

Playing the role in an emergency does not make you a SS. Then, again, with that said, some of those on your list, cant even fill in as an emergency. :)

 

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FWIW Fangraphs Steamer 2020 projections are up - they see Villar at .321 wOBA, 1.8 WAR.

Some poor incumbent middle infield situations among win-now teams:

World Series level: NATIONALS 2B vacant, Astros are set

LCS losers level: DeJong/Wong same as him, Yankees are set

LDS losers level: Rays are set, Twins are set, Dodgers are set, Braves are set

WC losers: Brewers picked Arcia already, Profar same as him

.500 missed playoffs: RED SOX 2B vacant (Chavis glove too shaky), INDIANS 2B vacant, Mets are set, Phillies are set (speculating on 3B Bohm, 2B Kingery soon there), Cubs are set

Aspirants: Odor same as him but club may be getting frustrated, Angels are set, White Sox are set, REDS 2B vacant, Diamondbacks probably don't see him as marginal value $10M greater than Josh Rojas, Padres set.

I'd guess Best Four Washington, Boston, Cleveland, Cincinnati.  But I also think every front office thinks the criteria arbitrators use (40 steals!  111 runs!!  162 games!!!) are prehistoric and the odds of an award there outstripping his "real" value substantially will dent his trade value.  If MASN history precludes WAS and BOS cost-cutting news real, that leaves Ohio.

Wildcard - Rougned Odor is a bit of a Baltimore folk hero.

Tender/non-tender deadline is December 2nd.

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17 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

FWIW Fangraphs Steamer 2020 projections are up - they see Villar at .321 wOBA, 1.8 WAR.

Have to say I don't quite get the pessimism here.  Last year Villar was a 4.0 win player, the year before 2.7, then 0.1, then 3.9.  One bad year out of the last four.  I weight things 4-3-2-1, so I have his established value as 2.8 wins.  He's 29, so the decline should be relatively small.  But Steamer has it as a full win off his established level, and well below his last two seasons.

I'd put him at more like 2.5 wins for '20.

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19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Have to say I don't quite get the pessimism here.  Last year Villar was a 4.0 win player, the year before 2.7, then 0.1, then 3.9.  One bad year out of the last four.  I weight things 4-3-2-1, so I have his established value as 2.8 wins.  He's 29, so the decline should be relatively small.  But Steamer has it as a full win off his established level, and well below his last two seasons.

I'd put him at more like 2.5 wins for '20.

A little of it is the WAR is a counting stat thing....their projection has him at 150 games only.  Steamer might expect 2B playing time to diminish faster near 30 as well.

To confess my own bias, some of the bearishness is Curse of the Ironman type stuff.  Cal's accomplishment is so legendary, but seeing how today's best teams are assembled, I'm kind of at a worldview of if a team plays a guy who isn't a legitimate MVP candidate 160+ games, it mostly signals a lack of enough average players. 

Round numbers can be attained (and perhaps rewarded in Arb) in marginal games 145-162, and fans get extra entertainment and the security of Markakis, Jones, Villar being there every day.  I do think players perform better when they have the comfort of knowing they are in, and some of the art of excellence for 2022 and beyond will be developing players who can maintain a high level of play even when being shuttled day by day and even inning by inning as machine learning takes Earl's index cards as far as they can go.

 

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12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

By "not bad" do you mean possibly flirting with .500? If yes, then I agree. If you mean contending then there's no chance in hell. 

1989.   2012.   Never again will I say “no chance in hell.”    But yes, very unlikely.   

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Have to say I don't quite get the pessimism here.  Last year Villar was a 4.0 win player, the year before 2.7, then 0.1, then 3.9.  One bad year out of the last four.  I weight things 4-3-2-1, so I have his established value as 2.8 wins.  He's 29, so the decline should be relatively small.  But Steamer has it as a full win off his established level, and well below his last two seasons.

I'd put him at more like 2.5 wins for '20.

As a 4 win player per Fangraphs in 2019, Villar's BSR was a league leading 10.5. He went from being an above average baserunner to the best baserunner in baseball. Steamer projects his BSR to 3.0 which is essentially his average level between 2016-18 (3.5/2.6/3.3). That doesn't account for all of the drop, but it is a pretty big factor, and the biggest area where Villar's 2018 season WAS an outlier from his history.

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