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Who will be the #7 and #8 prospects?

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
in Orioles Talk

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Who will be the #7 and #8 prospects?  

61 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the #7 and #8 prospects?

    • Baumann and Lowther
      4
    • Baumann and Harvey
      23
    • Henderson and Baumann
      22
    • Henderson and Kremer
      4
    • Kremer and Harvey
      8

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ChosenOne21 Major Leaguer

ChosenOne21

Posted
Posted

This one was tricky but I ultimately went with Henderson and Baumann even if I prefer them in the other order. I'm pretty sure Tony and Luke are somewhat down on Kremer and I find it hard to believe they have Harvey this high. Sure, he was great as a reliever this year but the command needs to improve and he once again ended the year injured even if it was a relatively minor one

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Posted

Looking at 7-10 together was a bit of a brain-teaser, but here was my logic.   
 

1.   You’ve got 6 guys for 4 spaces, so 2 guys have to be eliminated.   I think Akin is currently at the bottom of the totem pole for these pitchers, and it’s premature to put Henderson in the top 10 even though he could end up a really top prospect.   So, removing Henderson and Akin eliminates 2 options from the 7-8 list and 3 options from the 9-10 list.   
 

2.   Once you do that, Baumann-Lowther is impossible for 7-8 because the two options for 9-10 contain either Baumann or Lowther.   Likewise Kremer-Harvey is impossible for 6-7 because the two choices for 9-10 each contain Kremer or Harvey.   That leaves Baumann-Harvey as the only option 7-8.    I think Baumann has the edge over the other options at 7 anyway, based on comments from Tony and Luke throughout the year, so I went with that one.

3.   That leaves only Lowther-Kremer at 9-10.   
 

All pretty logical so long as you think Henderson and Akin are the odd men out.   If Henderson is in, it could be Henderson-Baumann and then Lowther-Kremer.   
 

Wow, this is pretty fun.   Lots of great choices in these slots.   

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looking at 7-10 together was a bit of a brain-teaser, but here was my logic.   
 

1.   You’ve got 6 guys for 4 spaces, so 2 guys have to be eliminated.   I think Akin is currently at the bottom of the totem pole for these pitchers, and it’s premature to put Henderson in the top 10 even though he could end up a really top prospect.   So, removing Henderson and Akin eliminates 2 options from the 7-8 list and 3 options from the 9-10 list.   
 

2.   Once you do that, Baumann-Lowther is impossible for 7-8 because the two options for 9-10 contain either Baumann or Lowther.   Likewise Kremer-Harvey is impossible for 6-7 because the two choices for 9-10 each contain Kremer or Harvey.   That leaves Baumann-Harvey as the only option 7-8.    I think Baumann has the edge over the other options at 7 anyway, based on comments from Tony and Luke throughout the year, so I went with that one.

3.   That leaves only Lowther-Kremer at 9-10.   
 

All pretty logical so long as you think Henderson and Akin are the odd men out.   If Henderson is in, it could be Henderson-Baumann and then Lowther-Kremer.   
 

Wow, this is pretty fun.   Lots of great choices in these slots.   

Love the work, but I don't think you can throw Henderson out.

And Henderson-Baumann and then Lowther-Kremer were my picks, before looking at both polls.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Love the work, but I don't think you can throw Henderson out.

And Henderson-Baumann and then Lowther-Kremer were my picks, before looking at both polls.

 

It’s just really hard for me to compare a 1st round supplemental pick who’s only played in the GCL with guys who’ve played in upper levels of the minors with some success, as all the others have done.    I’ll certainly acknowledge he might turn out better than any of them, but I’m hesitant to rank him there now.    

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s just really hard for me to compare a 1st round supplemental pick who’s only played in the GCL with guys who’ve played in upper levels of the minors with some success, as all the others have done.    I’ll certainly acknowledge he might turn out better than any of them, but I’m hesitant to rank him there now.    

Yeah, I understand that rationale when making a list. But, if you stuck to that way of thinking, you would have Mountcastle ahead of Adley. It's definitely a subjective balance of upside vs performance in these lists.

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Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looking at 7-10 together was a bit of a brain-teaser, but here was my logic.   
 

1.   You’ve got 6 guys for 4 spaces, so 2 guys have to be eliminated.   I think Akin is currently at the bottom of the totem pole for these pitchers, and it’s premature to put Henderson in the top 10 even though he could end up a really top prospect.   So, removing Henderson and Akin eliminates 2 options from the 7-8 list and 3 options from the 9-10 list.   
 

2.   Once you do that, Baumann-Lowther is impossible for 7-8 because the two options for 9-10 contain either Baumann or Lowther.   Likewise Kremer-Harvey is impossible for 6-7 because the two choices for 9-10 each contain Kremer or Harvey.   That leaves Baumann-Harvey as the only option 7-8.    I think Baumann has the edge over the other options at 7 anyway, based on comments from Tony and Luke throughout the year, so I went with that one.

3.   That leaves only Lowther-Kremer at 9-10.   
 

All pretty logical so long as you think Henderson and Akin are the odd men out.   If Henderson is in, it could be Henderson-Baumann and then Lowther-Kremer.   
 

Wow, this is pretty fun.   Lots of great choices in these slots.   

Yes, in addition to the actual ranking results, it’s fascinating to pull out your old statistical process of elimination chart, And make the most logical choices based on the available options. I actually don’t remember my vote, but I think I went with Baumann and Harvey. Which means I guess that Kremer is further down, poop.

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Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

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Posted

By the way, isn’t it pretty premature to put Henderson so high? Yes, he was a second round draft choice which means he was, what, 34? Something like that, but he’s a high school kid and he’s proven nothing. Yes, skyhigh potential, but still the other guys probably deserve to be higher for now don’t they?

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WalkWithElias Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

WalkWithElias

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2 hours ago, Pickles said:

I think Henderson is the first upside guy the OH staff loves.  And I think they like Baumann more than Lowther or Kremer.  I don't really think Harvey has any place this high on the list.

I am relieved they finally made the move to send Harvey to the bullpen It does crater his "prospect status" because we can't dream he'll develop into a TOR starter, but the possibility of having a young, inexpensive, high-leverage power arm at the back of the bullpen is good enough for me. 

I went Henderson-Baumann because using Tony's "Who would you rather have in the system" rule, Henderson is a high upside power bat with the ability to play the left side of the infield and the only other option that included Henderson was Kremer who I'd rate below Baumann because he doesn't have the same upside. 

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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5 hours ago, Pickles said:

I think Henderson is the first upside guy the OH staff loves.  And I think they like Baumann more than Lowther or Kremer.  I don't really think Harvey has any place this high on the list.

I have no idea what Tony and Luke will pick, but there's at least a chance they still keep Harvey very high. I know Luke wasn't sold on his move to the bullpen being permanent. If it isn't, he's still a very high upside starter, even though his 2019 performance didn't warrant it (which was his first consistent work in years). 

Also, I know Luke mentioned his scoring criteria in another thread, but comparing a guy like Harvey to a guy like Gunnar and rank ordering their prospect status is slightly less easy than putting an elephant on the moon. I hate to be the fun sucker, but the order here really doesn't matter very much. I just love that we're tossing around the names of several guys who have legit claims to being high level prospects or near term contributors even going past #10.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
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16 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

I am relieved they finally made the move to send Harvey to the bullpen It does crater his "prospect status" because we can't dream he'll develop into a TOR starter, but the possibility of having a young, inexpensive, high-leverage power arm at the back of the bullpen is good enough for me. 

I went Henderson-Baumann because using Tony's "Who would you rather have in the system" rule, Henderson is a high upside power bat with the ability to play the left side of the infield and the only other option that included Henderson was Kremer who I'd rate below Baumann because he doesn't have the same upside. 

That's largely how I felt about.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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14 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I have no idea what Tony and Luke will pick, but there's at least a chance they still keep Harvey very high. I know Luke wasn't sold on his move to the bullpen being permanent. If it isn't, he's still a very high upside starter, even though his 2019 performance didn't warrant it (which was his first consistent work in years). 

Also, I know Luke mentioned his scoring criteria in another thread, but comparing a guy like Harvey to a guy like Gunnar and rank ordering their prospect status is slightly less easy than putting an elephant on the moon. I hate to be the fun sucker, but the order here really doesn't matter very much. I just love that we're tossing around the names of several guys who have legit claims to being high level prospects or near term contributors even going past #10.

Here's my reasoning that this is too high for here:

I think his days as a SP are over.  He got BAD results last year starting.  Go look at the numbers.  He was the worst of the AA starters by far.  Between not getting results, and the arduous process of building him up to the point he could throw 180 innings a year, imo it's safe to say he won't start anymore.

So he's a BP guy.  Ok, fine.  He can still have a future here, and help.  However, on a "Who would you rather have?" kind of evaluation, anybody who has MOR upside is more valuable.  Unless you think Harvey goes full Britton in the pen.

So if you want to rank him over Akin?  Sure, I get it.

But over Baumann, in particular, I don't see it.

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