Tanner Scott - breakout candidate?

[Luke-OH]

 

Read through the whole 10 part tweet thread and discuss here. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm not as high on Scott as I was once but he's still the type of arm you keep giving chances to as long as you aren't worried about being competitive.

Does he still have that 100+ velocity? 

 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not as high on Scott as I was once but he's still the type of arm you keep giving chances to as long as you aren't worried about being competitive.

Does he still have that 100+ velocity? 

 

Cutting the fastball generally kills velocity, and he definetly has started cutting it (intentionally or not), which has killed the vertical and horizontal movement and at least some of the velocity. I'm not sure if he's still the avg 99mph guy he was back then, but an adjustment to the fastball to improve spin efficiency should get an increase from the 96.3mph avg velocity in 2019.

Even if he can't fix the fastball, I think a 50%+ slider usage will make him a solid pen arm, but upside is tied to getting the movement qualities of the fastball back to what they used to be.

[terphoopsfan]

only if he learns how to throw strikes...

[Frobby]

First of all, I can’t help but point out that I was unaware the Orioles were playing in December.    How’d we do?

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_Luke_Siler/status/1214152180363595776

Second, I like your analysis of his pitch usage and the changes in his fastball the last couple years, but I question his ability to make the necessary changes and throw strikes.   

The guy has Andrew Miller potential but I don’t think he’ll ever find a way to reach it.   No reason not to keep trying, though.  
 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, terphoopsfan said:

only if he learns how to throw strikes...

I don't think that's the main thing holding him back. He's allowed 1.11 HR/9 and a .387 BABIP in his MLB career, that's because the fastball gets crushed, the fastball gets crushed because it has poor movement qualities. 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I can’t help but point out that I was unaware the Orioles were playing in December.    How’d we do?

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_Luke_Siler/status/1214152180363595776

Second, I like your analysis of his pitch usage and the changes in his fastball the last couple years, but I question his ability to make the necessary changes and throw strikes.   

The guy has Andrew Miller potential but I don’t think he’ll ever find a way to reach it.   No reason not to keep trying, though.  
 

Dang, my brain was saying September. 

[terphoopsfan]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't think that's the main thing holding him back. He's allowed 1.11 HR/9 and a .387 BABIP in his MLB career, that's because the fastball gets crushed, the fastball gets crushed because it has poor movement qualities. 

4.7 and 6.5 BB per 9 the last 2 years certainly doesn't help, wouldn't you agree Luke? I agree with your comment on FB movement but he just can't find the plate enough and I'm not sure he's mentally tough enough. Doesn't hurt to keep throwing him out there the next 2 years and see if he figures it out.

[Luke-OH]

Don't get me wrong, the command isn't good, that's part of the problem, but he threw 66+% strikes in 46 AAA innings, walked less than 3 per 9. He can throw enough strikes, now quality strikes, that's an issue, but I'm saying if he can get the old fastball back, which may be as simple as a cue or grip change, the pitch will play much better in the heart of the zone. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, terphoopsfan said:

4.7 and 6.5 BB per 9 the last 2 years certainly doesn't help, wouldn't you agree Luke? I agree with your comment on FB movement but he just can't find the plate enough and I'm not sure he's mentally tough enough. Doesn't hurt to keep throwing him out there the next 2 years and see if he figures it out.

I'm saying that part of the BB rate is because of fear of throwing the fastball in the zone. Trying to nibble and not having the command to do so. 

[wildcard]

Here is a little more spin on Tanner Scott

Scott career splits in the majors:

In 209 plate appearances Scott as a 923 OPS vs right-handed batters.

In 162 plate appearance Scott as a 645 OPS vs left handed batters.

Now that pitchers have to face three batters, this makes it more difficult for Scott.

He has to find as way to get right handed hitters out at a better rate to be successful in the majors.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is a little more spin on Tanner Scott

Scott career splits in the majors:

In 209 plate appearances Scott as a 923 OPS vs right-handed batters.

In 162 plate appearance Scott as a 645 OPS vs left handed batters.

Now that pitchers have to face three batters, this makes it more difficult for Scott.

He has to find as way to get right handed hitters out at a better rate to be successful in the majors.

This strongly reinforces my point. 

In 2016-2017, when his fastball had more spin efficiency and horizontal/vertical movement. These were his splits.

2017:

.563 OPS vs RHB

.564 OPS vs LHB

2016:

.608 OPS vs RHB

.572 OPS vs LHB

The fastball used to be a huge weapon against opposite handed batters.

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

One thing about Scott is that he has improved at throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park (which seems strange to say), as in Bowie, he would either be striking out all 9 batters he faced, or giving up a home run that put drivers on the Interstate on alert.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Don't get me wrong, the command isn't good, that's part of the problem, but he threw 66+% strikes in 46 AAA innings, walked less than 3 per 9. He can throw enough strikes, now quality strikes, that's an issue, but I'm saying if he can get the old fastball back, which may be as simple as a cue or grip change, the pitch will play much better in the heart of the zone. 

Far be it from me to disagree, so please don’t think I am, just asking for clarification: Scott’s performance was against AAA bats, who are less likely to take advantage of a mistake pitch in the zone, and his MiLB numbers are pretty good overall which seems to indicate he hasn’t been able to succeed against good hitters. 

I lost hope in Scott long ago; just another guy who throws as hard-and as accurately-as a V1.

But if he could fix things, he could be really special, and no need to give up yet.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Far be it from me to disagree, so please don’t think I am, just asking for clarification: Scott’s performance was against AAA bats, who are less likely to take advantage of a mistake pitch in the zone, and his MiLB numbers are pretty good overall which seems to indicate he hasn’t been able to succeed against good hitters. 

I lost hope in Scott long ago; just another guy who throws as hard-and as accurately-as a V1.

But if he could fix things, he could be really special, and no need to give up yet.

His minor league strike-throwing numbers have steadily improved. 

His performance against AAA bats in 2019 points the finger more at fastball quality vs strikethrowing ability.

Of course, better command would help him a lot, but that's something he has never had.

A better fastball is something that he absolutely, provably had.