Poll: Grading Elias' Tenure Thus Far

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

A Hurricane is an act of nature. You should know that. The MASN issue is man made. Any GM coming in would know that and find out how it should be addressed considering almost all of the legal options have been exhausted.

You have a very different idea of how a baseball organization is run than I do.   Elias has zero to do with the MASN dispute.    He’s not the team president.   He’s not an owner.    He’s not an executive of MASN at all.    He runs baseball operations for the Orioles.    MASN is a separate legal entity that he’s not part of.   It’s completely outside his jurisdiction.   

[ScGO's]

So for the 60% of you that didn't give him an A, what could he possibly have done better considering the circumstances.  I'd give him the old skool A++ as he's earning extra credit at this point.

Upon arrival,

Worst owner in baseball.  Since? Haven't heard a peep of Angelos or his sons really, and no hint of meddling. He had the charm and intelligence to make them take a back seat without the backseat driver.

Practically no analytics system? Now we are running right with the pack and potentially taking strides long enough to pass the competitors in due time.

Struggling city with struggling reputation? He is trying to turn Camden Yards into the epicenter for community gathering in Baltimore with all the new concerts, promotions, and family friendly events he's added.  Worked with the Ravens, local colleges, and local restaurants and businesses to embrace the local culture.

Camden Yards is a great stadium, but the environment was kind of bland.  Now the food is popping, they are adding new segments between innings, I've heard even the ushers aren't as Nazi-like.

Player Development seems competent now and not a buzz saw for pitching prospects like it has been.

International presence?  We were the Goodwill store of the DSL, and now we have one of the best at the international helm in Koby Perez and we are already seeing more activity than we did in the last two decades combined.

Draft?  We drafted well at times under past regimes, but you could see the analytics driving Elias' first draft.  I was very happy with the draft and I have confidence he will never pull a Hobgood or a Rowell on us, especially since he is invested in the growth mindset mentality.

He saved Brooks Robinson from exile. 

He dumpster dives like a champ, especially since its so important to save money over the next few losing seasons.

Even though the main product is losing, there is a plan to win soon, while in the past, this ship was being driven by a drunken sailor at times.  Even when we were winning, it was like we accidentally shipwrecked on an island that just happened to be stacked with gold treasure.

A's all day for Elias. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm hearing two things that I'm having trouble reconciling.

Elias deserves an A.

The rebuild is going to be a long process.

To me an A performance is going to speed up the process so it comes in under "long".

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

So for the 60% of you that didn't give him an A, what could he possibly have done better considering the circumstances.  I'd give him the old skool A++ as he's earning extra credit at this point.

Upon arrival,

A-Worst owner in baseball.  Since? Haven't heard a peep of Angelos or his sons really, and no hint of meddling. He had the charm and intelligence to make them take a back seat without the backseat driver.

Practically no analytics system? Now we are running right with the pack and potentially taking strides long enough to pass the competitors in due time.

Struggling city with struggling reputation? He is trying to turn Camden Yards into the epicenter for community gathering in Baltimore with all the new concerts, promotions, and family friendly events he's added.  Worked with the Ravens, local colleges, and local restaurants and businesses to embrace the local culture.

Camden Yards is a great stadium, but the environment was kind of bland.  Now the food is popping, they are adding new segments between innings, I've heard even the ushers aren't as Nazi-like.

B-Player Development seems competent now and not a buzz saw for pitching prospects like it has been.

C-International presence?  We were the Goodwill store of the DSL, and now we have one of the best at the international helm in Koby Perez and we are already seeing more activity than we did in the last two decades combined.

Draft?  We drafted well at times under past regimes, but you could see the analytics driving Elias' first draft.  I was very happy with the draft and I have confidence he will never pull a Hobgood or a Rowell on us, especially since he is invested in the growth mindset mentality.

He saved Brooks Robinson from exile. 

D-He dumpster dives like a champ, especially since its so important to save money over the next few losing seasons.

Even though the main product is losing, there is a plan to win soon, while in the past, this ship was being driven by a drunken sailor at times.  Even when we were winning, it was like we accidentally shipwrecked on an island that just happened to be stacked with gold treasure.

A's all day for Elias. 

 

A++?

A- Davis is still on the roster.  Most folks seem to think that's ownership driven.  I'd say that Davis being on the roster counts as a "Hint of owner meddling".

B- He made sure Hays held onto his prospect status and drafted 1-1.  If as much progress was made in as to give an A++ grade, I would expect to have seen more of a jump in the O's prospect rankings.

C- How much money did he have and not spend last cycle?  Yes, yes, I know the reasons but we are talking A++ performance right?  No really big names this cycle either keeps me from awarding an A.

D- Dan Straily and Nate Karns keep this from being an A++ effort.  He also managed to trade away a guy that put up a 2.8 win season in 107 games.

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

A++?

A- Davis is still on the roster.  Most folks seem to think that's ownership driven.  I'd say that Davis being on the roster counts as a "Hint of owner meddling".

B- He made sure Hays held onto his prospect status and drafted 1-1.  If as much progress was made in as to give an A++ grade, I would expect to have seen more of a jump in the O's prospect rankings.

C- How much money did he have and not spend last cycle?  Yes, yes, I know the reasons but we are talking A++ performance right?  No really big names this cycle either keeps me from awarding an A.

D- Dan Straily and Nate Karns keep this from being an A++ effort.  He also managed to trade away a guy that put up a 2.8 win season in 107 games.

A - its no rush and a hell of an investment, so he's trying to figure out if he can salvage anything.  He might be gone in a couple months.  He's only had him for one year, maybe he's moving on to Plan B, C, D, E, etc

B - Didn't the O's shoot up the overall prospect rankings to the top third?

C - Getting a big name this offseason would decrease his letter grade in my opinion.  He's going to go big sometime between 2021-2023

D - So goes it in the craft of dumpster diving.  No one is 100 per on dumpster diving. He did also find Alberto, Severino, Wojo, etc.  He was able to find value without spending, but the big league club is not as high on his list of priorities as the infrastructure issues with the club. Karns and Strailey are probably what influenced his approach to the this offseason as the FA market is not the most cost efficient approach to adding talent for this club.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

A - its no rush and a hell of an investment, so he's trying to figure out if he can salvage anything.  He might be gone in a couple months.  He's only had him for one year, maybe he's moving on to Plan B, C, D, E, etc

B - Didn't the O's shoot up the overall prospect rankings to the top third?

C - Getting a big name this offseason would decrease his letter grade in my opinion.  He's going to go big sometime between 2021-2023

D - So goes it in the craft of dumpster diving.  No one is 100 per on dumpster diving. He did also find Alberto, Severino, Wojo, etc.  He was able to find value without spending, but the big league club is not as high on his list of priorities as the infrastructure issues with the club. Karns and Strailey are probably what influenced his approach to the this offseason as the FA market is not the most cost efficient approach to adding talent for this club.

You are rating him A++.

I don't want to hear, "it's no rush" and "so goes it in the craft of dumpster diving".

Not when you are talking A++, or even A for that matter.  You sound like you are talking about someone pulling down a B.  You don't lose a 3 win guy for nothing and get an A++.

Class with 30 students, how many do you give an A++?

Are you saying that you think Elias has been the best GM in baseball since he's been hired?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hearing two things that I'm having trouble reconciling.

Elias deserves an A.

The rebuild is going to be a long process.

To me an A performance is going to speed up the process so it comes in under "long".

Some things can’t be rushed.    He took over a 47-win team with no international presence, a skeletal analytics staff, and a below average farm system, that had already traded away most of its average or better players.     That’s a very deep hole to dig out of.     He’s done about as much as could be expected in his first 15 months on the job, so I gave him an A, though it’s not possible to know whether the rebuild will succeed at this stage.    We know how long the Astros’ took, and this is a tougher task than the Astros IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Some things can’t be rushed.    He took over a 47-win team with no international presence, a skeletal analytics staff, and a below average farm system, that had already traded away most of its average or better players.     That’s a very deep hole to dig out of.     He’s done about as much as could be expected in his first 15 months on the job, so I gave him an A, though it’s not possible to know whether the rebuild will succeed at this stage.    We know how long the Astros’ took, and this is a tougher task than the Astros IMO.

That to me isn't an A, it's a B.  An A is going beyond, to exceed expectations.

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That to me isn't an A, it's a B.  An A is going beyond, to exceed expectations.

An historically significant push into the international market on year 1 certainly exceeded my expectations considering we had very minimal contacts there and Elias was hired late, with Perez hired even later. How that doesn't exceed everyone's expectation is beyond me.

Complete overhaul of the development system, minor league coaching philosophy, integration of data/tech in less than a year also wildly exceeded my expectations for year 1.

Did not expect him to hire as many ridiculously qualified front office people as he was able to. 

/shrug 

I won't convince you so I don't really have interest in a back and forth. But fire at will if you must. 

[SteveA]

6 hours ago, ScGO's said:

So for the 60% of you that didn't give him an A, what could he possibly have done better considering the circumstances.  I'd give him the old skool A++ as he's earning extra credit at this point.

 

 

Primarily resolve the Chris Davis situation to free up 1B/DH for Mancini.

I gave him a B because while it APPEARS he is doing the correct things, so much of it is unmeasurable at this point, and there was no incomplete option in the poll.   (And, honestly, an incomplete option would make the poll kind of meaningless because most would probably vote for it).

I am also concerned that he has brought some of the negative aspects of the Astroball culture here.   While this organization absolutely needed modernization and paying attention to advanced metrics and new methods of player scouting, selection, and development, the Astro culture has been, rightly in my opinion, criticized for its rather sterile, data-driven and not human-driven culture.   The attitude that if player A can be shown by metrics to be better value than player B, then you take player A, led to Houston signing a domestic abuser and then taunting nyah-nyah I told you so to people who criticized the move on the basis of the player's character.   It led to a cheating scandal because the perceived advantage of cheating vs the possibility of getting caught was viewed as a net plus and no one thought to consider the moral aspects whatsoever because how do you quantify morality?   It led in both places to old school members of the organization being rapidly displaced by younger data driven people (who just HAPPEN to make way less money than a 30 year veteran baseball man).   I'm not saying these changes didn't have to be made, they probably did.   But it's part of the bottom line data driven mentality.   The mentality that dismisses the drop in attendance because once we win the sheep will flock back.   That will PROBABLY happen when we are good again but in an era of declining attendance in all sports, I think there is a need to nurture the emotional connection between the fans/city and the team.   When the major fan-relations decision in the first full offseason in charge of the team is to cancel Fanfest, a 20+ year tradition that thousands of fans enjoyed, it's not a good look.   (And yes, I know that Fanfest is probably not under Elias's domain, don't bother to tell me again.   All I know is it reeks of a bottom line cost/benefit decision that is typical of the Astro culture and it happened in the first full offseason that Elias and company were here).

So my giving him a B was my way of saying that I like most of the changes he is making to our system in terms of player scouting and development, and they certainly LOOK like they are A level changes.   But it's too soon to really evaluate them, the Davis situation is still an albatross that has not been removed, and I do have some concerns about what I believe are drawbacks to the Astro approach.   So I just couldn't give him a flat A/

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, interloper said:

An historically significant push into the international market on year 1 certainly exceeded my expectations considering we had very minimal contacts there and Elias was hired late, with Perez hired even later. How that doesn't exceed everyone's expectation is beyond me.

Complete overhaul of the development system, minor league coaching philosophy, integration of data/tech in less than a year also wildly exceeded my expectations for year 1.

Did not expect him to hire as many ridiculously qualified front office people as he was able to. 

/shrug 

I won't convince you so I don't really have interest in a back and forth. But fire at will if you must. 

The O's 2019 class probably ranks what 29th?  Elias had a small part of that, he traded a ton of slot money that other teams found value in spending.  This class is probably in the bottom five or so right?  That doesn't exceed my expectations.  I was expecting poor but not quite as poor.  

Folks are grading him on a huge curve.

 

I will say that if he had managed this trick with Peter still in charge I'd give him an A. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Can_of_corn

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The O's 2019 class probably ranks what 29th?  Elias had a small part of that, he traded a ton of slot money that other teams found value in spending.  This class is probably in the bottom five or so right?  That doesn't exceed my expectations.  I was expecting poor but not quite as poor.  

Folks are grading him on a huge curve.

I have no idea where we’re ranked.   But which class are you talking about, the class that started on 7/2/18 and was still ongoing when he took over in November, or the class that started on 7/2/19?    He has not traded any slots from the latter class so far as I know, and has spent $4.9 mm of his allotment so far.    We have two prospects BA grades as 48th and 51st in that class.   I consider that quite good considering that all evidence suggests that most of these players have committed in principle a year or two before they’re actually eligible.     I know you have this notion that it should be easy to upset these agreements by waving some extra cash in a prospect’s face, but I haven’t seen a single shred of evidence that you’re right about that.   I’m very happy with our progress in the international market.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I have no idea where we’re ranked.   But which class are you talking about, the class that started on 7/2/18 and was still ongoing when he took over in November, or the class that started on 7/2/19?    He has not traded any slots from the latter class so far as I know, and has spent $4.9 mm of his allotment so far.    We have two prospects BA grades as 48th and 51st in that class.   I consider that quite good considering that all evidence suggests that most of these players have committed in principle a year or two before they’re actually eligible.     I know you have this notion that it should be easy to upset these agreements by waving some extra cash in a prospect’s face, but I haven’t seen a single shred of evidence that you’re right about that.   I’m very happy with our progress in the international market.   

I was talking about both, the 2018-2019 class, in which he traded away a lot of the slots and the 2019-2020 class.  Once again I'm not expecting him to sign a top 10 or even top 20 class but signing the #48 and #51 guys is within the realm of what I was expecting.  I don't see that as A or A++ work.  That's doing your job now that ownership is in place that will allow you to spend your money.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about both, the 2018-2019 class, in which he traded away a lot of the slots and the 2019-2020 class.  Once again I'm not expecting him to sign a top 10 or even top 20 class but signing the #48 and #51 guys is within the realm of what I was expecting.  I don't see that as A or A++ work.  That's doing your job now that ownership is in place that will allow you to spend your money.

It’s not worth the energy to debate you further on this, since I would have preferred not to have given a grade at all.   You’re obviously a tougher grader than some of us, which is fine.    I’m more interested in what grade we think he deserves two years from now.    

[Enjoy Terror]

9 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Struggling city with struggling reputation? He is trying to turn Camden Yards into the epicenter for community gathering in Baltimore with all the new concerts, promotions, and family friendly events he's added.  Worked with the Ravens, local colleges, and local restaurants and businesses to embrace the local culture.

Camden Yards is a great stadium, but the environment was kind of bland.  Now the food is popping, they are adding new segments between innings, I've heard even the ushers aren't as Nazi-like.

Because we are not (and should not be) crediting Elias for the MASN debacle, it’s worth noting that this stuff isn’t Elias either.