Jump to content

2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

For a really long time I've wanted the Os to make projection/model based decisions and I feel like that's exactly what they did here and everyone is upset. I'm willing to be that their projections of Kjerstad's bat exceed the value of Martin's and like many other club's/scouts, they don't think he'll be able to stick in CF or play plus in the middle of the infield. Seems clear with this pick and Westburg that Elias and Sig have a specific plan but it's different than that of the prognosticators. Excited to see how day two pans out.

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

Well, if thescore.com says we did bad, we should definitely get out the pitchforks.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Kjerstad had a significantly better K rate than Torkelson this year.  I think it's entirely possible he ends up being a comparable bat at a more premium defensive position.  This pick has grown on me since last night. 

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the shortened 2020 season, Arkansas, like everyone else in the conference, did not make it to the SEC schedule. Kjersatd put up his numbers in 16 games against:

 

Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley Conference)-He went 7-12 with 4 HR 10 RBI, 2 walks and 1 k.

Gonzaga (West Coast Conference)-He went 4-16 with 0 HR 1 RBI 3 walks and 4 k's.

Oklahoma (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he went 2-5 (2 singles) 0 RBI 0 walk and 1 K.

Texas(Big 12)- In the 1 game played, he went 3-5 with 1 HR 2 RBI.

Baylor (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he 2-3 with a 2B  0 RBI no walks no K's.

Illinois St.(Missouri Valley Conference)- In the 1 game played, he went 2-5, 1 RBI no walks no K's.

South Alabama (Sunbelt Conference)-In their 3 game series, he went 5-13 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 walk 2 K's.

Grand Canyon (Western Athletic Conference)--2 game series, he went 5-8 with 1 RBI 1 walk and 1 K.

Kjerstad played 2 of his 16 games against ranked teams. OU finished the truncated season 13th. Texas was 22nd.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

Yes, we're talking about different things.  One of the big concerns about Kjerstad seemed to be the amount of swing and miss in his game.  I have no doubt Tork will walk more, but maybe their hit tools are closer than the common wisdom would indicate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

Wilcox and Kelly are still available to sign. And what Elias said could be posturing, you never know. I'm not going to complain about anything until I see the final haul.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

Again, Kjerstad is 21. Young players are  generally overaggressive... especially ones with the power of Kjerstad.

Tork also is likely limited to 1B whereas Kjerstad profiles as a RF with the bat to profile there and likely comes with a far lesser $.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Yes, we're talking about different things.  One of the big concerns about Kjerstad seemed to be the amount of swing and miss in his game.  I have no doubt Tork will walk more, but maybe their hit tools are closer than the common wisdom would indicate. 

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

The SEC seems like a substantially tougher conference based off the results from last night. Could factor in the Os projections.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

Okay, I think of hit tool as more pure contact ability but fair enough.  And I do think Tork will have more value with the bat, just speculating maybe it's closer than people think and Kjerstad plays a more valuable defensive position. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

You are comparing sports where in one most picks in the first 3 rounds play at the top level in their rookie seasons, against the other, where most players in the first 3 rounds never make the major leagues.

Also, the slotting system makes a big difference in practice here. We'll see how it plays out, but it may be that the O's pick a few overslot guys tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Big Mac said:

Okay, I think of hit tool as more pure contact ability but fair enough.  And I do think Tork will have more value with the bat, just speculating maybe it's closer than people think and Kjerstad plays a more valuable defensive position. 

Unless Tork somehow can play third.  Ain't holding my breath on that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Thanks for the detailed explanation of all of the issues.  Sounds like a mess.
    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...