2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

[atomic]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

AIKEN HAD AN INJURY ISSUE.

They didn't blow anything, they had no way to know.

They offered Aiken more than they signed Correa for. Let’s put to bed the injury issue as the reason they didn’t sign him.  

[atomic]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Said Elias of Kjerstad: “We absolutely love his bat. He is the best left-handed hitter in the country this year. He plays a good right field. He’s a big guy with gigantic power and it’s power to all fields. We think he’s a middle of the order bat. Great kid. A tremendous addition to our farm system.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/06/new-oriole-heston-kjerstad-is-confident-in-himself-and-his-new-club.html

He did hit .448/.513/.791 this season.   Not too shabby, though I’m sure there were a lot of cupcake games on the early schedule.    

Well he would have to say he was the best  left handed hitter in the draft as the guy picked at number 1 is right handed.  

[atomic]

2 hours ago, 24fps said:

I would love it if Martin lost money in the end due to Boras being a hardass.  I doubt if we would ever know, but it's fun to think about.

Martin could just go back into the draft next year if he doesn’t get the money he wants.

[atomic]

3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

HIGHLY, HIGHLY unlikely, but there is a minuscule chance that the O's don't sign him in order to pick 3rd next year when the odds are that there will be far more data. Again, I stress, it's a thousand-to-one shot, if not an even higher number.

You don’t draft a guy ranked 10th at best at number 2 if you don’t plan to sign him.  You know you have to offer a minimum amount of slot or you don’t get the pick next year.  He probably would sign for that,

[hoosiers]

58 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

When I said "he's putting his job on the line", what I meant was that this pick had better work out, because he took the consensus 9th (roughly) best player with the 2nd pick.  If he turns out well, he looks like a genius.  If he washes out, his job is in jeopardy.  We'll know in 2-3 years.  

Of course, If he was told to take Kjerstad to save money, then it's his credibility rather than his job on the line, as someone else said.  

This is a bit rich.  The Os don't operate in a vacuum.

We just saw the Red Sox take a player outside the top 125 with the 17th pick and then had someone say on national tv that the kid might be the best HS bat in the country!

Or the Marlins buck conventional wisdom of a "top 3" and pass on both Martin and Lacy!

Look at where Foscue was mocked and where he was selected.

"Consensus" rating is based on a lot of factors and evaluators might throw out some numbers or interpret the results of a college hitter differently.  There are also tremendous amounts of mis-information provided by scouts, scouting directors and GMs in the draft.  

Kjerstad outslugged Torkelson in the early college season, played on the same SEC stage as Martin, and outhit both Martin and Tork in a small sample-size with the collegiate national team.  Let's give the kid a break and the GM a chance to finish off the draft before evaluating it.  The $ from big savings at 2 was never going to go to someone at 30, IMO, and I have posted as much.  30 carries slot of $2.4M and not a lot of guys are going to turn down $2.5M-$3M.  The slot savings IMO at 2 was always going to go to 39/74 to get a big 3 or big four out of the draft.  

[hoosiers]

45 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Ordinarily, it would not be a good idea to put a lot of weight on a 16 game sample when it suggests a significantly higher level of ability than a player's previous body of work.  But if Mejdal and company broke down the film were able to to convince themselves that Kjerstad's improvement in results corresponded to an observable improvement in his approach and/or mechanics between seasons, then this could be the kind of information edge that could justify going against the grain and picking him at 1:2.  We'll see.  I hope they are right.

It is not just that small sample size.  Look at the smaller sample size for the USA Collegiate National Team where HK outhit both Tork and Martin.  Our front office has taken a risk here bucking conventional wisdom - let's see how it pans out.

[atomic]

3 hours ago, weams said:

Data here

https://d1baseball.com/columns/drivelines-anatomy-of-a-prospect-arkansas-heston-kjerstad/

 

Seems with the high strike out and bad plate discipline that this pick is a big money saving move.  Hobgood part 2.

[Satyr3206]

The Draft is a crapshoot. Always has been. That being said, I would rather have a player with one outstanding ability than the toolsy players the O's drafted for years.

[TheWall]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Seems with the high strike out and bad plate discipline that this pick is a big money saving move.  Hobgood part 2.

This comparison is absurd. Can people stop making it? 

[ChuckS]

37 minutes ago, jcaponio said:

Wow. Since you obviously know what everyone’s board looks like, please post them all here. We’d all be very interested. 

Didn’t say that. I believe the Orioles targeted Kjersted. And when you differ this far from the consensus you better get it right. 

[ChuckS]

52 minutes ago, TheWall said:

I would bet every dollar I have that Kjerstad was closer to 2 on the Orioles board than 15th. 

I would too.......since we took him second.

[jcaponio]

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Didn’t say that.

So then how do you know everyone else had him at 15 on their boards?

[Number5]

Just now, ChuckS said:

Didn’t say that. I believe the Orioles targeted Kjersted. And when you differ this far from the consensus you better get it right. 

I think that it is very possible that MLB teams' consensus differed from internet guru consensus.  I've read that KC, Pitt, SD, and COL were all in on Kjerstad with their first pick.  All in the top 10.

[ChuckS]

7 minutes ago, jcaponio said:

So then how do you know everyone else had him at 15 on their boards?

Obviously I’m going by the prognosticators. 

I’ll say it again. When you go against the consensus you better get it right. And I don’t like the profile. Corner outfielder with average or below defense better be a special bat at 2. 

[Philip]

Well, we already have a strong middle-of-order bat in Mancini, who also isn’t good on defense and can’t run very well.

Are we going to trade him in a year?