Let's talk about Carlos Delgado.

[Lt Melmo]

Delgado's gone on an insane run this year and he's found himself with some extremely silly MVP talk. I mean, it really is just silly. This is from a Joe Sheehan chat:

J.P. (Hartford): Would Delgado be the least valuable MVP winner ever? I know there probably has to be somebody from the 50s or 60s like Hank Sauer that had worse seasons, but no one recently is jumping to mind. And this is comign from a Mets fan who would slot him behind Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Pelfrey.

Joe Sheehan: He'd be in the mix. I don't think he's a realistic candidate, but then again, I didn't think Shannon Stewart could finish fourth a few years ago. Delgado is the third-best player in his own team's infield. That would be one hell of a bad MVP.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=519

I think he'll certainly get some votes, but if he actually wins the thing... that's just silly. His OPS+ is 124 this year.

Still though, it WAS a surprisingly powerful year for him. On another forum, a disgruntled Mets fan set up a wager at the beginning of the season: if Delgado can actually hit 25 homers this year, the poster would eat a stick of butter and post the video on Youtube. (he hasn't done it yet)

Now, Delgado's hit 35 homers and the season isn't over. He currently sits at 466 for his career. He's 36 years old. Assuming he doesn't have an Andruw-esque dropoff, he could pass the 500 mark over the next two seasons. If he plays until he's in his forties, he could probably hit 550.

He's got a .279/.383/.546 career line, with a 136 OPS+.

Is Delgado a first-ballot hall of famer? If his career were to end after this season, would he be?

I can see a lot of people going with the "he just doesn't feel like a hall of famer to me" silliness. He had a fantastic peak though: OPS+ of 150, 137, 181, 146, 147, 161 from ages 26-31. He was way underrepresented in MVP voting in these years, probably because Toronto never made it to the postseason. His 2000 season easily could've won him an MVP, or at least a very close second to Giambi. But he was fourth, despite his 181 OPS+, 41 homers and 57 doubles.

He didn't strike me as a HoFer before I looked at his stats, but he's had a great career. I'd like to hear from some people smarter than me, which means all of you.

[Frobby]

I can't think about Carlos Delgado without thinking of our failed attempt to sign him in 2004-05, which was the biggest debacle of the Beattie-Flanagan era I think. If Delgado had been signed, we (1) would not have re-signed Raffy, and (2) would not have traded for Sammy Sosa. Just think about what happened to our team in 2005 and you can get sick.

Delgado is not yet a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and only time will tell if he deserves that honor. Basically, he's Fred McGriff. But assuming that he gets to 500 HR he's probably in.

[TonySoprano]

I can't think about Carlos Delgado without thinking of our failed attempt to sign him in 2004-05, which was the biggest debacle of the Beattie-Flanagan era I think. If Delgado had been signed, we (1) would not have re-signed Raffy, and (2) would not have traded for Sammy Sosa. Just think about what happened to our team in 2005 and you can get sick.

Delgado is not yet a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and only time will tell if he deserves that honor. Basically, he's Fred McGriff. But assuming that he gets to 500 HR he's probably in.

We might have gone for Sosa anyway; I agree about Palmeiro. Sosa, if you remember, was something Angelos worked out with MacPhail at the owner's meetng. B&F were following orders closing that deal. Their bigger personal blunder was not trading Ponson for Adrian Gonzalez + cash.

[byrdz]

I can't think about Carlos Delgado without thinking of our failed attempt to sign him in 2004-05, which was the biggest debacle of the Beattie-Flanagan era I think.

Vlad and Derek Lee are up there for me as well, of course, they did make an honest to goodness run for Vlad so I'll give them that.

[MChance]

Albert Pujols ... your 2008 National League MVP!

[Frobby]

Vlad and Derek Lee are up there for me as well, of course, they did make an honest to goodness run for Vlad so I'll give them that.

I did not like the way they handled the Vlad negotiation at all, but I've just never been sure it would have made a difference if they had done a better job. Maybe yes, maybe no. But with Delgado it definitely would have made a difference IMO.

[Eight]

He didn't strike me as a HoFer before I looked at his stats, but he's had a great career.

I actually had the exact opposite response - after looking at his numbers, he's far less of a candidate than I had envisioned in my mind. 2000, 2003, and 2005 were his only seasons in the top 5 of his league in adjusted OPS+ or adjusted batting runs. No defensive value, played for only one playoff team (and did hit the crap out of the ball for an LCS losing Mets team in 2006), hasn't yet compiled big career numbers...I don't see it.

One kind of weird thing is his 1999 season. He had 44 HR and 39 2B, but he still didn't crack the AL top 10 in OPS. His OBP was even a respectable .372. I know offense was at its apex then, but wow.

Without looking at it more thoroughly, I think he's clearly overshadowed by McGwire, Helton, Bagwell, Thome, Thomas, Palmeiro, and maybe a few others I'm missing as far as 1B/DH types over the past dozen years.

[whatdoiget000]

I actually had the exact opposite response - after looking at his numbers, he's far less of a candidate than I had envisioned in my mind. 2000, 2003, and 2005 were his only seasons in the top 5 of his league in adjusted OPS+ or adjusted batting runs. No defensive value, played for only one playoff team (and did hit the crap out of the ball for an LCS losing Mets team in 2006), hasn't yet compiled big career numbers...I don't see it.

One kind of weird thing is his 1999 season. He had 44 HR and 39 2B, but he still didn't crack the AL top 10 in OPS. His OBP was even a respectable .372. I know offense was at its apex then, but wow.

Without looking at it more thoroughly, I think he's clearly overshadowed by McGwire, Helton, Bagwell, Thome, Thomas, Palmeiro, and maybe a few others I'm missing as far as 1B/DH types over the past dozen years.

But McGwire, Bagwell, and Palmeiro have all been linked to steroids, and Helton plays at Coors.

[NewMarketSean]

I can't think about Carlos Delgado without thinking of our failed attempt to sign him in 2004-05, which was the biggest debacle of the Beattie-Flanagan era I think. If Delgado had been signed, we (1) would not have re-signed Raffy, and (2) would not have traded for Sammy Sosa. Just think about what happened to our team in 2005 and you can get sick.

Delgado is not yet a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and only time will tell if he deserves that honor. Basically, he's Fred McGriff. But assuming that he gets to 500 HR he's probably in.

Signing Delgado, however, doesn't mean that that team does any better than it did. The pitching and injuries are what did us in that season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Delgado's gone on an insane run this year and he's found himself with some extremely silly MVP talk. I mean, it really is just silly. This is from a Joe Sheehan chat:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=519

I think he'll certainly get some votes, but if he actually wins the thing... that's just silly. His OPS+ is 124 this year.

Still though, it WAS a surprisingly powerful year for him. On another forum, a disgruntled Mets fan set up a wager at the beginning of the season: if Delgado can actually hit 25 homers this year, the poster would eat a stick of butter and post the video on Youtube. (he hasn't done it yet)

Every year there's a ridiculous MVP candidate who gets some down-ballot support from writers who want to make the award a protest against those damned statheads who don't understand why real, human teams win.

Delgado is this year's.

Now, Delgado's hit 35 homers and the season isn't over. He currently sits at 466 for his career. He's 36 years old. Assuming he doesn't have an Andruw-esque dropoff, he could pass the 500 mark over the next two seasons. If he plays until he's in his forties, he could probably hit 550.

He's got a .279/.383/.546 career line, with a 136 OPS+.

Is Delgado a first-ballot hall of famer? If his career were to end after this season, would he be?

I can see a lot of people going with the "he just doesn't feel like a hall of famer to me" silliness. He had a fantastic peak though: OPS+ of 150, 137, 181, 146, 147, 161 from ages 26-31. He was way underrepresented in MVP voting in these years, probably because Toronto never made it to the postseason. His 2000 season easily could've won him an MVP, or at least a very close second to Giambi. But he was fourth, despite his 181 OPS+, 41 homers and 57 doubles.

He didn't strike me as a HoFer before I looked at his stats, but he's had a great career. I'd like to hear from some people smarter than me, which means all of you.

There are probably a dozen or more first basemen who fit generally the same mold - big, slow sluggers who had MVP-ish years at least 2-3 times, usually had almost no defensive value, and ended up with WARP peaks in the neighborhood of 100. Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, Johnny Mize, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Jim Thome, Willie Stargell. They're all clearly better than Hall of Famers like Jim Bottomley, or Bill Terry. Just on their playing records they're behind the Bagwells and the Palmeiros and the Brouthers and Foxxes. And they're just different than guys like Murray or Sisler.

I don't pretend to know what the HOF voting will be like in five or ten years, so it could be that seven or eight first basemen from the 1990s will go in, or maybe just a handful. You could certainly justify seven or eight based on established standards.