2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well that is certainly your right to have that opinion, but I'm going to disagree a bit. The game has changed and power plays. Kjerstad has outstanding left-handed power and let's not act like his hit tool is awful either, it's probably above average. I don't think he's going to be Trumbo out in RF so as long as he's not awful out there, his bat should play and he has an opportunity to be an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup. Signing him allowed the Orioles to get Mayo and Baumler.

So let's just say Elias had to make a choice between Martin (who many think has to move off SS and has just average power), slot 4th and 5th round talents vs Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. He gets the left handed power he needed in the lineup (I could see him sandwiched between Rutschman and Mountcastle to give the Orioles and potent 3-4-5 and two high ceiling high schoolers. 

The more I read and watched video of Hunter Haskin, the more I kinda like him. That swing if fugly, no doubt, but the guy can rake and he's got enough speed and defensive ability to play all three outfield positions. If he can develop into 20 homer power, .280-.290/.340-.350 OBP guy, he's a solid major league starting outfielder, particularly in center field.

His arm has accuracy issues, but it's solid to even above average according to most sources but I don't think the arm will end up a detriment or an asset.

Now, the only pick I'm not initially thrilled with is the Jordan Westburg selection. I would have preferred the Orioles had gone with a college arm at this point, but Elias/Sig like those big up the middle guys. Westburg does have some talent, but he has to stick at shortstop to get the most value as I don't think his hit tool or average power will make him a great play at 3B ultimately. Now if he ends up at 2nd base as a Jonathan Schoop like second baseman, there still could be some value but I would not be surprised if he's a high strikeout, low walk guy. 

 

 

 

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We agree. What's the problem? lol

So why draft a .250 hitter at the college level? He's less likely to be a better hitter in professional baseball. Sure he can be developed...But the chance of that is relatively low IMO

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

FWIW this is from Eric Longenhagen at Fan Graphs:

 

Great ...so they drafted 2 RF or a RF and a DH! I'm more excited now .... Rolls Eyes!

[Spl51]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Great ...so they drafted 2 RF or a RF and a DH! I'm more excited now .... Rolls Eyes!

Have you watched Kjerstad play defense? He's not a DH by any stretch. Reminds me a lot of Aaron Judge. Huge arm, seriously it's plus plus. He's surprisingly fast, but he's a big guy so his routes look a little awkward. Traditional right field profile in a really good way.

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Spl51 said:

Have you watched Kjerstad play defense? He's not a DH by any stretch. Reminds me a lot of Aaron Judge. Huge arm, seriously it's plus plus. He's surprisingly fast, but he's a big guy so his routes look a little awkward. Traditional right field profile in a really good way.

My point was they drafted 2 RFs

[makoman]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So why draft a .250 hitter at the college level? He's less likely to be a better hitter in professional baseball. Sure he can be developed...But the chance of that is relatively low IMO

Kjerstad hit 438 this year. 343 career.

Westburg hit 317 this year, 294 last year (with OBPs over 400).

Haskin hit 333 this year, 372 last year.

Servideo hit 390 this year 287 last year.

Mayo hit 455 this year, 391 last year (high school).

What are you talking about?

Edited June 12, 2020 by makoman

[24fps]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think its a bad strategy to pass on the BPA or try to add value later. They highest percentage of wins in the prospect game are in round one. Why hurt that percentage in hopes of getting potential value later....Just my 2 cents

I'm biased toward BPA as well - in a vacuum.  I think what we're learning is that a lot of behind-the-scenes stuff (established frameworks for deals, for example) took place beforehand that allowed for more complexity during the draft.  Personally, I'm most curious about how many players they felt out before draft day.  At least a couple of dozen would be my guess.

[Smilin' Joe Fission]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

So let's just say Elias had to make a choice between Martin (who many think has to move off SS and has just average power), slot 4th and 5th round talents vs Kjerstad, Mayo, and Baumler. He gets the left handed power he needed in the lineup (I could see him sandwiched between Rutschman and Mountcastle to give the Orioles and potent 3-4-5 and two high ceiling high schoolers. 

 

If this is the case as the future heart of the order, who do we have in the system as the higher average/obp guys?  I'll admit I was disappointed in us not picking Martin given the painful on-base years we've had.

[CallMeBrooksie]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My point was they drafted 2 RFs

So you read one Fangraphs opinion on Mayo that says he thinks Mayo ends up in RF (which, by the way, was a rather positive take on Mayo's potential), and you latch on to that because it fits your narrative.

It's just not that simple. Other reports say he has one of the best arms of the whole draft and great athleticism.. he could stick at 3rd. He's drawn comps of Austin Riley for his ceiling. Or maybe he has the tools to play an excellent RF. You don't decide to not take a guy just because you have other OF prospects. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Well ...You read scouting reports from the various professionals. So you below that most or all of them are wrong? Also stats don't lie! And why they are not an end all, they are a predictor of the ability to handle the levels pitching etc. A low average or OBP might be an strong indicator

Sure, agreed, but who did we draft that fits that description?

[Aristotelian]

So we got a bunch of first rounders in the 4th and 5th and 2nd rounder in the 1st. Baseball draft makes my head hurt. These guys sound exciting though. Mayo is a cool name for a ballplayer. 

[makoman]

The problem with many of the angry hot takes is that the data we have is stale. A lot can change with these 20-21 year old kids (not to mention high schoolers) in a year and we didn't really get to see much this year. 

Austin Hays hit 269 with 3 homers and a 729 OPS his sophomore year. You think that gets him drafted? But then he hit 350 with 16 homers and a 1.060 OPS junior year. What if he'd only played 10 games that year? The baseball draft is already a big crapshoot and this one the decisionmakers had even less information than usual. We have to hope that our guys are able to identify the ones who were making that next step.

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So we got a bunch of first rounders in the 4th and 5th and 2nd rounder in the 1st. Baseball draft makes my head hurt. These guys sound exciting though. Mayo is a cool name for a ballplayer. 

I haven't seen anybody, anywhere that rates Kjerstad as a second-rounder.

[BohKnowsBmore]

51 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So which two guys, in the top 30 overall, are we throwing out to justify Baumler and Mayo as “first round talents”. 
 

Why didn’t we pick them with our comp pick and 2nd round pick if we had them so highly rated?  Weren’t we scared we were going to miss out on such highly rated talent?

I like the strategy for this draft if we weren’t picking top 2. Just too risky with the 2nd pick in the draft.

Could be that nobody else would be able to match their numbers to which we agreed pre-draft, so you’d rather get CBA, 2nd, 3rd rounders and the two HS kids than the two HS kids, 3rd, 4th m, and 5th rounders. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, Number5 said:

I haven't seen anybody, anywhere that rates Kjerstad as a second-rounder.

Most outlets had him between 5 and 10 IIRC.