2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[lovetoaster]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No I'm not

Best Pure Hitter in the draft ... Every scouting report I read says the same thing ...Over and Over

Best hitter in the draft does not equal best player in the draft.

[Roll Tide]

Just now, lovetoaster said:

Best hitter in the draft does not equal best player in the draft.

He was rated by a number of venues as the best player available.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Big Mac said:

"Some scouts go as high as 70"...how is that different than me saying I don't doubt there are 70 grades?  Also that quote implies those 70 grades are outliers. 

Not really .... Some means that others had a different grade! I challenge you to find one lower than 60 and bet the average is certainly 65.

[Big Mac]

 

The below scouting report sound familiar? Any guesses?

Hitting ability:	one of the best pure hitters in college, with great bat control and plus bat speed. He stays in the zone a long time, hits the ball where it's pitched and stays back on soft stuff.
Power:	There's a debate over how much power he will have. He should run into some home runs and might have average power as a pro.
Running speed:	He's a plus runner and is almost deceptive with a nice, easy stride.
Base running:	He is an excellent baserunner.

[Big Mac]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Not really .... Some means that others had a different grade! I challenge you to find one lower than 60 and bet the average is certainly 65.

I don't think there are any lower than 60, I bet the average is likely 65.  Doesn't really matter because we are splitting hairs at that point.  I don't believe the hit tool is a 70 and I am pretty confident the Orioles don't either. 

[wildcard]

We can agree with what Elias did in the draft or not but I think one thing is clear:

Mike Elias had a plan prior to the draft and he executed it.

He wanted to go under slot with the #2 pick and he did it.   He wanted to get high school talent in rounds 4 and 5 that he considered (at least in Mayo's case) as 2nd round talent and he got him.  (I don't know about Baumler yet. Let see what he signs for.)

Elias had apparently negotiated with Mayo before the draft because he is already signed for 1.75M.   

Elias kind of worked this draft backward in some sense.   He knew how much money he needed to sign draftee's 4 and 5.   He probably felt there were 5 to 10 players that he could pick with #2 and he picked the one with the best ability that also gave him the ability to go under slot later in the draft.  

This was not picking the best player available at each draft spot.   This was the best player available that allowed him to execute his plan.   That plan was to get as many talented players as he could.

Elias has been asked about picking Westburg at #30.  Its apparent that he values the guy as a first rounder IMO.    

Its also seems that he values position players over pitchers at this point in the O's rebuild. (Not that I agree with him but so what)

So I think Elias believes he got 2 first rounder in Kjerstad and Westburg.  And at least 2 second round talents in Haskin and Mayo.   We should wait to see how much and when Baumler signs for to see how much Elias values him.

[Roll Tide]

Quote

MLB draft: Austin Martin is 2020's top prospect; his Vanderbilt coach explains how he could become a star

 

Quote

Martin, a top-of-the-order hitter and versatile defender, might be the most intriguing player in the class. He has an impressive feel for contact and for the strike zone, finishing his Commodores career with a .368 batting average and more walks than strikeouts. (He was the toughest batter to strike out in the power conferences.) Though he homered just 14 times, his exit velocities suggest there's plus power potential under the surface, something he could achieve thanks to his offensive aptitude and a swing that already features loft. In short, Martin fits the profile of others who have added power to their games in recent years.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-austin-martin-is-2020s-top-prospect-his-vanderbilt-coach-explains-how-he-could-become-a-star/

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

We can agree with what Elias did in the draft or not but I think one thing is clear:

Mike Elias had a plan prior to the draft and he executed it.

He wanted to go under slot with the #2 pick and he did it.   He wanted to get high school talent in rounds 4 and 5 that he considered (at least in Mayo's case) as 2nd round talent and he got him.  (I don't know about Baumler yet. Let see what he signs for.)

Elias had apparent negotiated with Mayo before the draft because he is already signed for 1.75M.   

Elias kind of worked this draft backward in some sense.   He knew how much money he needed to sign draftee's 4 and 5.   He probably felt their were 5 to 10 players that he could pick with #2 and he picked the one with the best ability that also gave him the ability to go under slot later in the draft.  

This was not picking the best player available at each draft spot.   This was the best player available that allowed him to execute his plan.   That plan was to get as many talented players as he could.

Elias has been asked about picking Westburg at #30.  Its apparent that he values the guy as a first rounder IMO.    

Its also seems that he values position players over pitchers at this point in the O's rebuild. (Not that I agree with him but so what)

So I think Elias believes he got 2 first rounder in Kjerstad and Westburg.  And at least 2 second round talents in Haskin and Mayo.   We should wait to see how much and when Baumler signs for to see how much Elias values him.

While all this is true we also know that he was targeting a pitcher at 30 that he didn't get.  So at least part of his plan fell through.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-austin-martin-is-2020s-top-prospect-his-vanderbilt-coach-explains-how-he-could-become-a-star/

Player A- 140 Games, 85 BB, 82K, 14 HR, 368/474/532

Player B- 177 games, 147 BB, 117K, 27 HR,  344/481/570

 

[lovetoaster]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He was rated by a number of venues as the best player available.

Yes, by some. But the results of the actual draft tell me otherwise. Torkelson would not have fallen to five. 

You can talk about all of the predraft rankings and anonymous scouts you want. But the actual results tell me that things aren't as clear cut as you're making them out to be. 

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, lovetoaster said:

Yes, by some. But the results of the actual draft tell me otherwise. Torkelson would not have fallen to five. 

You can talk about all of the predraft rankings and anonymous scouts you want. But the actual results tell me that things aren't as clear cut as you're making them out to be. 

Fact: The Orioles and the Marlins went Underslot! They went with #9 and #10 rated.

Fact: Torkelson was going #1 or #2 and Did!

Fact: The Royals went with the top pitcher in the draft.

The actual results mean little in terms of talent because it was weighted by financial implications that made the teams take someone other than the BPA

Pick                        Rank

#1                              #1

#2                              #10

#3                              #9

#4                              #3

#5                              #2

#6                              #4

#7                              #5

 

After the obvious under slots the outcome pretty much went in the order they should have

 

 

[lovetoaster]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Fact: The Orioles and the Marlins went Underslot! They went with #9 and #10 rated.

Fact: Torkelson was going #1 or #2 and Did!

Fact: The Royals went with the top pitcher in the draft.

The actual results mean little to the reality!

Pick                        Rank

#1                              #1

#2                              #10

#3                              #9

#4                              #3

#5                              #2

#6                              #4

#7                              #5

 

After the obvious under slots the outcome pretty much went in the order they should have

 

 

Why do you think they went underslot? If there is an obvious, franchise-changing talent there, you aren't going underslot. 

[Hazmat]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed.  I think he had a Plan A, Plan B and so forth.   Maybe if he gets his guy at #30 he doesn't get either Mayo or Baumler.   Who knows.   It seems as though Plan A did not come together perfectly.

I suspect that one of Mayo or Baumler, perhaps both, were concessions for Bitsko not falling to 30.

[hoosiers]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Regardless of the approach and theory the hit rate on 4th/5th round players is less than that of the 1st. Your best chance to hit is the 1st round

RT, you are going off the reservation with some of these replies.  It's like someone took away your cookies.  This is ridiculous. 

You can stand on your soap box and yell "BPA" and refuse to listen to any argument made by anyone else because, well, BPA. 

When you go shopping for a safe car, do you buy the most expensive Volvo if it is the absolute safest or do you find an car that combines appropriate safety with appropriate affordability.  There are shades of gray in all aspects of our lives and it sounds so childish to hear someone hold there breath and scream "Best Player Available" while covering their ears.  

I don't care if the Os rated Martin a 60 on an 80 scare and had Kjerstad as anything from a 55-65.  

Do you know how many prospects in our system were drafted and signed by the Os to a bonus over $1M?  12 with some dating back to the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

How many of those signed for over $1.5M? AR, GrayRod, DLHall, Gunnar Henderson, Sedlock and Grenier - six guys.

Do you know how many guys taken in the O's 2020 draft will get over $1.5M?  At least FIVE!  It is a major influx of talent.

Finally, while you are stewing on that BPA soapbox, can you please explain to me how in the world Kjerstad outhit Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team?  Seriously, how is that even possible in the world of BPA?

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

RT, you are going off the reservation with some of these replies.  It's like someone took away your cookies.  This is ridiculous. 

You can stand on your soap box and yell "BPA" and refuse to listen to any argument made by anyone else because, well, BPA. 

When you go shopping for a safe car, do you buy the most expensive Volvo if it is the absolute safest or do you find an car that combines appropriate safety with appropriate affordability.  There are shades of gray in all aspects of our lives and it sounds so childish to hear someone hold there breath and scream "Best Player Available" while covering their ears.  

I don't care if the Os rated Martin a 60 on an 80 scare and had Kjerstad as anything from a 55-65.  

Do you know how many prospects in our system were drafted and signed by the Os to a bonus over $1M?  12 with some dating back to the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

How many of those signed for over $1.5M? AR, GrayRod, DLHall, Gunnar Henderson, Sedlock and Grenier - six guys.

Do you know how many guys taken in the O's 2020 draft will get over $1.5M?  At least FIVE!  It is a major influx of talent.

Finally, while you are stewing on that BPA soapbox, can you please explain to me how in the world Kjerstad outhit Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team?  Seriously, how is that even possible in the world of BPA?

 

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.