Roch on the OF situation

[weams]

55 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

I mentioned a couple of bad plays and could have mentioned at least one more.

I won’t repeat the whole thing. 

You should have. Because as a whole, I think he has looked fine. Certainly better than anyone we have had play there in five years. 

Also, he has played a total of 50 games in the outfield ever. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It seems like DJ Stewart is likely to be traded.  He reminds me of a better Jack Cust.  He is close to a 3 outcomes hitter, homers, walks and lots of strikeouts.  I could see him putting up a .220, 40 HR, 200 K year, but I could also see him out of baseball in 2 years.  What's his trade value relative to Nunez>

Cust had a 10 year career.  I'm sure DJ would love to match that.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Diaz is ready imo.  I think the team knows it but no where to put him right now.

We have to wait and see on Mancini but I do think we need 2 of Davis, Nunez and Santander gone after the season.  

Based on what? His .807 and .732 OPS vs AA? We don't even have eye test to go on at the Alternate Site. 

Certainly I expect to see him at some point in the next year but I don't see any reason to believe he is a sure thing to be better than Santander. 

[HowAboutThat]

48 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancini. Not that I think we will get an MLB ready 3B for him but I expect we will trade him and Nunez before next year's deadline. Stewart can take Nunez' DH spot as long as his bat plays, leaving Mountcastle, Hays, and Santander in the OF with Mullins as 4th OF. 

Mancini has no trade value for the next year or so

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Based on what? His .807 and .732 OPS vs AA? We don't even have eye test to go on at the Alternate Site. 

Certainly I expect to see him at some point in the next year but I don't see any reason to believe he is a sure thing to be better than Santander. 

Based on his talent level, his ratings amongst all reports and scouts, as well as Elias himself saying how god he looks.

Santander is extremely overrated on this board.

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mancini has no trade value for the next year or so

The trade deadline has already passed for this year. I am talking about next year. If he is solid in April-May I would think he has value. He will start to lose value rapidly the further he gets into arbitration so next season is probably his peak value. 

[OriolesMagic83]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cust had a 10 year career.  I'm sure DJ would love to match that.

I forgot about his 2 or 3 good years in Oakland.  The memory of him falling repeatedly trying to score,obscures all other memories of him.  One year he led the league in walks and strikeouts, but Chris Davis was unimpressed with his inability to even reach 200 K's.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Based on his talent level, his ratings amongst all reports and scouts, as well as Elias himself saying how god he looks.

Santander is extremely overrated on this board.

Has Elias said any of the players don’t look good?

[joelala]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

To me, Mullins is still a non factor. 
 

Have no idea what you have in Hays.

Diaz probably starts in AAA next year but should be up quickly.

I would look to deal Santander.  
 

You need a third baseman, use some OF depth to acquire one.

I would also explore extending him after this season. Could end up being a hell of a bargain. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Based on his talent level, his ratings amongst all reports and scouts, as well as Elias himself saying how god he looks.

Santander is extremely overrated on this board.

I know all teams hype their players but Hyde had some pretty strong comments supporting Santander. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I know all teams hype their players but Hyde had some pretty strong comments supporting Santander. 

 

*shrug*

Santander had about 600 plate appearances between last year and this year.  He has walked 29 times and hit 261 last year and 261 this year.

Now, he has some good trends this year.  A big increase in his slugging and ISO.  His BABIP is an unlucky 248 despite a 27% LD%.  Those numbers lead you to believe the BA should be higher this year.  OTOH, this is all a SSS this year, so its kind of whatever.

What I see from Santander is an average at best hitter (BA wise), a poor walk rate and good power.  His defense is fine but its nothing special.  We don't know yet how well he will hit lefties.  He did a good job last year and a poor job this year.  

In other words, in a full seasons worth of at PA, spanning 2 seasons, we have a good idea of what Santander is and what he likely will be a relatively valuable player until he becomes expensive.  His best years should be the next 2-3 years.  

I would expect something like 260/310/480...25-30 homers, 25-30 doubles.  He may be able to pop an 820-850 OPS season in the next few years but he also could be a 750 OPS guy as well...so, I would split the difference and expect him to be in the high 700s or so.

Thats a good player...but its nothing spectacular either.  It wouldn't surprise me if Stewart is more valuable going forward (Because of his OBP) and I think Diaz will be more valuable than both of them.  Santander has a head start for sure and there are encouraging signs but any talk of just penciling him into RF or extending him or whatever is way over the top imo.

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

*shrug*

Santander had about 600 plate appearances between last year and this year.  He has walked 29 times and hit 261 last year and 261 this year.

Now, he has some good trends this year.  A big increase in his slugging and ISO.  His BABIP is an unlucky 248 despite a 27% LD%.  Those numbers lead you to believe the BA should be higher this year.  OTOH, this is all a SSS this year, so its kind of whatever.

What I see from Santander is an average at best hitter (BA wise), a poor walk rate and good power.  His defense is fine but its nothing special.  We don't know yet how well he will hit lefties.  He did a good job last year and a poor job this year.  

In other words, in a full seasons worth of at PA, spanning 2 seasons, we have a good idea of what Santander is and what he likely will be a relatively valuable player until he becomes expensive.  His best years should be the next 2-3 years.  

I would expect something like 260/310/480...25-30 homers, 25-30 doubles.  He may be able to pop an 820-850 OPS season in the next few years but he also could be a 750 OPS guy as well...so, I would split the difference and expect him to be in the high 700s or so.

Thats a good player...but its nothing spectacular either.  It wouldn't surprise me if Stewart is more valuable going forward (Because of his OBP) and I think Diaz will be more valuable than both of them.  Santander has a head start for sure and there are encouraging signs but any talk of just penciling him into RF or extending him or whatever is way over the top imo.

Agree with your take on Santander but average MLB production with average defense is a valuable player and he has the biggest sample size now of any of our players. I think you are overrating Stewart. Any edge he has on Santander  in hitting is negated by his defense. That said he is left-handed and with the DH we could find a spot for him. None of these guys are complete packages, including Hays.

[HowAboutThat]

6 hours ago, weams said:

You should have. Because as a whole, I think he has looked fine. Certainly better than anyone we have had play there in five years. 

Also, he has played a total of 50 games in the outfield ever. 

Joey Rickard had better range and better route, was quicker and had an accurate arm. I don’t remember how powerful it was, but it was accurate. And Nate Mclouth was a terrific LF, though he was 7 years ago.

however, I can’t stress enough that I’m not saying Mc should move. I’m saying that if he stays in left, he has to hit well enough to compensate for his defense, which is like saying the sky is blue. I’m also saying that if his bat is good we have to find a place to play him, and only if a better LF comes along, MC should move. Sheesh.

Edited September 13, 2020 by Philip

[Gentile4]

Assuming Mancini makes it back, which I know is clearly still up in the air, wouldn't it make the most sense to just entrench him at 1B, his natural position? That leaves Mountcastle in left, Hays/Mullins in CF, and Santander in RF. Now we have to find AB's for Nunez, Stewart, and Diaz. I doubt they'll cut Davis, but the only time he should see the field is if it's on the mound in a blowout situation. If Mancini doesn't make it back, move Mountcastle to first creating room for Stewart and Diaz. Nunez has value; he's only 26 and has shown decent power on a team that severely lacks it but should have all his gloves confiscated. Okay, he can keep his batting gloves. As has been mentioned, if we can deal an outfielder for a 3B, that would be ideal. I just wonder how likely that actually is.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Gentile4
typo

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Agree with your take on Santander but average MLB production with average defense is a valuable player and he has the biggest sample size now of any of our players. I think you are overrating Stewart. Any edge he has on Santander  in hitting is negated by his defense. That said he is left-handed and with the DH we could find a spot for him. None of these guys are complete packages, including Hays.

Im not rating Stewart at all.  I’m merely saying that it won’t surprise me if his value is higher than Santander in the near future.  It’s not now and Santander clearly has a head start but Santanders poorish OBP, mediocre BA and minimal defensive value, he just isn’t an overly difficult player to replace.