State of the System: Starting Pitching - Grade A

[ScGO's]

Over the next couple of days I will release a State of the System Analysis and Grade for the following:

Tuesday: Starting Pitching

Wednesday: Relief Pitching

Thursday: Catcher

Friday: Corner Infield

Saturday: Middle Infield

Sunday: Outfield

With two seasons under his belt, Elias has done a lot to try and address the organization's needs from top to bottom.  How does each part of the roster look heading into the future?  First up is Starting Pitching.

State of the System: Starting Pitching

 

Present Situation: The MLB rotation is still thin although John Means, Alex Cobb, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, and Jorge Lopez sounds a lot more enticing than names like Brooks, Straily, Blach, Hess. or Ynoa like we saw in 2019 when Elias arrived. Perhaps Bruce Zimmerman or Kohl Stewart can push Lopez for the 5th starter spot. Adding a cheap FA could be an option if Elias doesn't want to rush the prospects awaiting at AAA.

 

Future Outlook: Zac Lowther, Michael Bauman, Kyle Bradish, and the newly acquired Kevin Smith are the next potential crop that will begin in AAA.  Alex Wells may jump in with that crew as well.  It would be nice if one or more of these players can be an option before we see DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez arrive.  Means seems to be a real option and Kremer and Akin will have every opportunity to build on their 2020 success.  We have enough on the current roster and at AA and above to be excited about our potential rotation by 2022. Below AA, a few interesting players could rise very fast next season.  Drew Rom, Blaine Knight, Brenan Hanifee, Jake Zebron, and 2020 draft pick Carter Baumler are a few names that could quickly improve their prospect stocks in 2021 with strong showings. 

 

Noteworthy Players: Luis Ortiz, Tom Eshelman, Josh Rogers, Cameron Bishop, Griffin McClarty, Dan Hammer, Zach Peek, Easton Lucas, Leonardo Rodriguez, David Lebron, Ryan Wilson, Ofelky Peralta, Adam Stauffer, Ryan Conroy, Kevin McGee, Jake Lyons, Dallas Litscher, Jensen Elliott

System Grade: A

The pitching philosophy has seemed to have undergone a Renaissance of sorts since Elias arrived.  Options should be a-plenty over the next couple seasons.  Not all will stick, but the depth is promising and could provide our first true TOR starters since Mussina and the strongest rotation we've seen since the Orioles World Series years.

[Sports Guy]

I wouldn’t give them an A yet.  That’s basically saying it’s close to perfect(assuming you would say A+ is perfect).

I like a lot about the pitching but there are a ton of questions along with all the positives.  I think it’s more like a B right now.  A jump forward by Hall and GRod would put them in A range.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t give them an A yet.  That’s basically saying it’s close to perfect(assuming you would say A+ is perfect).

I like a lot about the pitching but there are a ton of questions along with all the positives.  I think it’s more like a B right now.  A jump forward by Hall and GRod would put them in A range.

I think it is a B. Arms are so fragile. Many of the folks included in the write up here have, could have, physical issues. I do like the improvements. 

[Aristotelian]

Definitely not A. Prospects are great but the MLB rotation counts and ours is not good. 

[HowAboutThat]

Even read the post yet, but wanted to say thank you for the work you did. I haven’t read your analysis yet, but I agree that we get an A for the pitching, because we have gotten rid of some of the bad and introduced some of the good, we can expect more of the good, and hopefully we can get rid of more of the bad…(Looking at you, David Hess.)

[NCRaven]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Definitely not A. Prospects are great but the MLB rotation counts and ours is not good. 

I do think that a Cobb, Means, Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman rotation has potential to be good.  But, potential is such a squishy thing.

[Moose Milligan]

C+.  You've got two top flight guys like Rodriguez and Hall and then some other guys that could be interesting.  But that's the thing about guys in the minors, they always could be interesting.  At one time, Hess might have appeared to be interesting to some people, same with Aaron Brooks and Ty Blach.  

For every John Means you get, there are a couple dozen Mike Wrights. I understand why people think Lowther and Baumann have potential, they also have questions, too.  

 

[MurphDogg]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

At one time, Hess might have appeared to be interesting to some people, same with Aaron Brooks and Ty Blach.  

This is overstating things somewhat. Pretty much every pitcher listed in the opening post is more interesting than David Hess ever was. Hess had 4.54 ERA at Bowie over 52 starts with a 6.8 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. Nothing about Hess made him look like a potential solid MLB contributor, certainly not in the rotation.

Likewise, Brooks never struck anyone out in the minors which is a major red flag even with his low walk rate, nor was his ERA particularly good. Similarly, Blach was a pitch to contact type who didn't strike guys out in the minors and didn't have great minor league results.

The only player similar to those three is Alex Wells, in that he is a soft tossing control guy, but Wells at least has a minor league ERA more than a run better than any of those guys and a K/BB ratio of 4.86. I doubt that Wells will find much success in the majors, but even he is more interesting than Hess, Brooks and Blach, and he is the least interesting (to me) of the guys who have reached AA.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

C+.  You've got two top flight guys like Rodriguez and Hall and then some other guys that could be interesting.  But that's the thing about guys in the minors, they always could be interesting.  At one time, Hess might have appeared to be interesting to some people, same with Aaron Brooks and Ty Blach.  

For every John Means you get, there are a couple dozen Mike Wrights. I understand why people think Lowther and Baumann have potential, they also have questions, too.  

 

I'm not convinced Hall is a sure thing.

[wildcard]

Elias has only drafted one pitching prospect in the first 7 rounds of the last two drafts - Baumler.   And he is a high schooler far away for the majors.  And, of course,  their there are not international pitching prospects at the higher levels of the minors.  

You have Bradish skipping from A+ ball where he had  1.416  WHIP to AAA and Rodriguez skipping to at least AA from low A.  The reports out of Bowie say that Rodriguez and Hall has good stuff but not good command.   I don't look for Elias to have pitchers skip too many level.  If they do well at a level then they are likely to be promoted fast.   We will see what Elias does.

Cobb will be on the market this winter and the O's will pay someone to take him.  I do agree that the starting pitching is thin  and inexperienced at the major league level.

I'd grade the starting pitching in the system a  B.

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not convinced Hall is a sure thing.

Obviously I have no idea how he did this year but, while he has a great arm, I did see lots of command issues at Frederick.  Here's hoping that has been improved.

[Frobby]

I’d give it a B.     Nice depth, but the best talent in the system hasn’t been tested at the upper levels of the minors.

[Moose Milligan]

40 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

This is overstating things somewhat. Pretty much every pitcher listed in the opening post is more interesting than David Hess ever was. Hess had 4.54 ERA at Bowie over 52 starts with a 6.8 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. Nothing about Hess made him look like a potential solid MLB contributor, certainly not in the rotation.

Likewise, Brooks never struck anyone out in the minors which is a major red flag even with his low walk rate, nor was his ERA particularly good. Similarly, Blach was a pitch to contact type who didn't strike guys out in the minors and didn't have great minor league results.

The only player similar to those three is Alex Wells, in that he is a soft tossing control guy, but Wells at least has a minor league ERA more than a run better than any of those guys and a K/BB ratio of 4.86. I doubt that Wells will find much success in the majors, but even he is more interesting than Hess, Brooks and Blach, and he is the least interesting (to me) of the guys who have reached AA.

Fair enough.  But I'm still not excited about Lowther and Baumann.  I feel like they're guys we're supposed to be excited about since we've drafted them and they've put up some interesting numbers but both appear to have some flaws.

 

[ScGO's]

I suppose the grade is a measurement of the actual talent, the philosophy in scouting/developing for the position, and the depth.  That's why I believe they deserve the A.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not convinced Hall is a sure thing.

He seems to have command/control issues, that's for sure.