What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t need to show it.  I’m good knowing that it happens all the time.  It’s always happening and it’s always a discussion around the game.  You either know this and are on purposely being argumentative or you just don’t pay attention to the game.

As for a guy like Stewart, I agree..but no one is gaming service time for him.  

But guys you view as potential significant contributors long term?  Yes, you do that provided that you aren’t a contender.  

OK, we are done here.

I don't feel like dealing with this level of hubris on a Sunday morning.

 

[Just Regular]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tatis famously made the Padres OD roster last year with the team coming off a 96 loss season.

As I hope Kumar Rocker will in 2022!  (Unless he is Garrett Crochet in 10 months)

I think that was the one where Hosmer/Machado having some ears may have helped it, but regardless I do think it is psychobabble good for keeping 25 guys invested in your team's competitiveness in a window.  I have some psychobabble bad notions that no matter how much talent they amass, none of the Rays players are super invested in what's happening given how the club treats them.  

At this point the hope is just Tatis can make it past 3-4 months without all the talent somehow leading him to hurt himself.  I do think the 60-game setup may have helped this year's supernova.  I'm glad his dad set a foundation so there's no Acuna/Albies type leverage here.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

As I hope Kumar Rocker will in 2022!  (Unless he is Garrett Crochet in 10 months)

I think that was the one where Hosmer/Machado having some ears may have helped it, but regardless I do think it is psychobabble good for keeping 25 guys invested in your team's competitiveness in a window.  I have some psychobabble bad notions that no matter how much talent they amass, none of the Rays players are super invested in what's happening given how the club treats them.  

At this point the hope is just Tatis can make it past 3-4 months without all the talent somehow leading him to hurt himself.  I do think the 60-game setup may have helped this year's supernova.  I'm glad his dad set a foundation so there's no Acuna/Albies type leverage here.

Depends on how Rocker does in short season ball.  He will have to prove himself at every level to earn promotion.

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, we are done here.

I don't feel like dealing with this level of hubris on a Sunday morning.

 

This upsets me so.

Zero chance you don’t know this goes on all the time.  This is obviously an issue you have with Elias and are allowing that to cloud your thoughts here.

There is a reason the MLBPA wants this rule changed.  It’s not because of 1 or 2 players.

[Just Regular]

It's all just game theory.   Wherever the rules of the game are set, parties will try to maximize.

It will be the tiniest 2020 silver lining if it nudges a CBA to get done, especially locally as the 2022 Orioles could be very exciting to watch play.

I'm honestly fascinated to see what the union comes up with as their 1-2 biggest asks, and rooting for age-based free agency, even if it means Terrin Vavra's a free agent after 2024 coming off the organization's fifth consecutive AAA MVP.   Another reason to get Adley, DL and Grayson on to that 2021 roster so they can be grandfathered under the old rules sunset.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It's all just game theory.   Wherever the rules of the game are set, parties will try to maximize.

It will be the tiniest 2020 silver lining if it nudges a CBA to get done, especially locally as the 2022 Orioles could be very exciting to watch play.

I'm honestly fascinated to see what the union comes up with as their 1-2 biggest asks, and rooting for age-based free agency, even if it means Terrin Vavra's a free agent after 2024 coming off the organization's fifth consecutive AAA MVP.   Another reason to get Adley, DL and Grayson on to that 2021 roster so they can be grandfathered under the old rules sunset.

This is the end game for the players.  I don't think the Union cares that much that a 23 year old gets held back a couple of weeks, but they care when a 30 year old can't get the type of free agent deal they have come to expect.  Helping the rookies is a side effect, not a feature.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This upsets me so.

Zero chance you don’t know this goes on all the time.  This is obviously an issue you have with Elias and are allowing that to cloud your thoughts here.

There is a reason the MLBPA wants this rule changed.  It’s not because of 1 or 2 players.

For both you and Can_of_corn: have a look at this thread I did last offseason.    I’m working on a deeper dive right now that I’ll post later.    

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For both you and Can_of_corn: have a look at this thread I did last offseason.    I’m working on a deeper dive right now that I’ll post later.    

 

Thanks Frobby I had forgotten you had done this work.

Funny how actual evidence can contradict what someone knows happens all the time.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks Frobby I had forgotten you had done this work.

Funny how actual evidence can contradict what someone knows happens all the time.

This didn’t contradict anything.

First of all, it proves that there are a lot of players who get held back..there will be evidence of that all over the league.  

Secondly, most of this service time manipulation occurs with the better prospects.  We aren’t worried about the DJ Stewart’s of the world...but we are worried about guys like Mountcastle, Diaz, Adley, etc...
 

You would have to break this down by who are significant prospects and things like that.  Not all call ups are created equal.

Again, the union is trying to eradicate this rule for more than just Kris Bryant.  It’s an issue around the league..it’s also a highly intelligent way of running a team if you aren’t a contender.

[Can_of_corn]

Quote

I think it’s hard to look at that data and conclude that there’s a ton of service time manipulation going on, at least with respect to when players make their major league debuts.    I do think the dip in debuts in the first half of May is probably influenced by teams trying to avoid the unknown cutoff date for Super-2 status that usually arrives sometime after May 15, and that the late June bump up may relate to the relative certainty that Super-2 has passed.   And, the relatively high “rest of April” debut rate probably includes a few guys who were delayed to get an extra year of control without regard to Super-2.     But overall, I wouldn’t say the effects are huge.  

No one is saying that it doesn't go on at all.

But the idea that

Quote

it happens all the time

Quote

I would bet it happens every year to most teams,

Doesn't seem to be supported.

Keep in mind a lot of these delayed promotions won't have anything to do with service time manipulation.

I have yet to see any evidence that gaming the service times of fringe 100 players is a normal occurrence around the league.  You claim it is but refuse to provide evidence beyond because I say it is.

[Sports Guy]

He showed almost 2400 debuts and less than 300 were called up where they would gain a full year.

That leaves roughly 2100 players over the course of a decade...That’s roughly 7 players per team per year.  That’s all the time to me.

Now, of course not all of those are service time manipulation but even if it is 50ish players a year around the league, that’s all the time to me.  That’s a lot of guys getting held back because of this rule.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

He showed almost 2400 debuts and less than 300 were called up where they would gain a full year.

That leaves roughly 2100 players over the course of a decade...That’s roughly 7 players per team per year.  That’s all the time to me.

Now, of course now all of those are service time manipulation but even if it is 50ish players a year around the league, that’s all the time to me.  That’s a lot of guys getting held back because of this rule.

One in five position players only have a one year career, fewer than half play more than four seasons.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3184466/

The average career length for pitchers is under five years.

http://economics-files.pomona.edu/GarySmith/BBcareers/careers.html

 

A LOT of the players that get called up later in a season are injury replacements that are going to have abbreviated careers in the majors.  If the O's call up a Branden Kline in June it probably isn't because they are worried he'll be a Super Two down the line.

[Can_of_corn]

Let's look at the O's, we know the O's.

Wieters was obviously gamed.

Mountcastle was, in my opinion, gamed.

Some folks think Gausman was gamed, I disagree.  I think they were desperate for pitching and promoted him too quickly.

Who else would you say had their service time gamed?  Bundy didn't, Markakis didn't, Schoop didn't, Mancini didn't, Matusz didn't. 

If it's happening seven times a season per team on average we should have a big list of Orioles.

[wildcard]

I don't expect to see Rutschman in the majors in 2021.   #1 reason is that the O's will not be contenders in 2021 if the season sees close to the normal length.   AR may today be an upgrade to the Severino and Sisco defensively.  But he has not played above A ball.   He faced a few AAA pitchers a Bowie but he faced them over and over which does not simulate  normal games.   I expect AR to begin the season at Frederick.  If he does well he could be moved up rapidly.  However, if he hits a snag at any level he could stay there until he overcomes the problem.  Whether Rutschman begins 2022 with the O's probably depends on what the new CBA says.

And 2022 season could be impacted by the CBA negotiations or lock out or strike.  Its an unknown and there are major issues on the table.

Diaz probably does not start 2021 with the O's.  He probably follows the Mountcastle model that Elias used.  Diaz will be passed the 'get a 7th year' milestone by mid to late  April.   If he is performing well he could be called up then.  But if he is not then its a question of when he performs well and how close that is to the 'Super 2' milestone.  Just have to wait and see on that one.  But he is expected by mid season 2021.

When he come up he plays.  Pushing Hays and Mullins into sharing CF depending on how they are doing.

Right now the starters look thin and inexperienced to begin 2021.  Elias will push hard to trade Cobb. That leaves Means, Kremer, Akin, Lopez and Zimmerman.  Stewart may or may not play depending on COVID.  Lowther, Baumann and Wells  probably follow Elias methodology, go to AAA, and are not promoted until the 2nd half.  I expect Elias to sign a veteran starter for about 800k.  Which means he is a crap shoot.   This is not a contending starting staff scenario.

The reliever are in a similar situation.  7 or 8 relievers. Several unproven and learning. And there will be health problems and non performance that make the staff thin.  But for relievers it easier to find minor leaguers to fill in like Hanhold, Kline and Phillips if they are still around on minor league contracts.

I think Alberto and Nunez are on the bubble.  Could be traded or DFA'd.   Just don't know yet.   

Number of wins 70- 83 depending on soooo many things.  And no 83 wins in not a contending team with Tampa and the Yankees in the league.  Twins and White Sox getting better.  O's would need a major format change with more playoff teams then a normal year to contend.   Don't know that will happen before the CBA is agreed on.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at the O's, we know the O's.

Wieters was obviously gamed.

Mountcastle was, in my opinion, gamed.

Some folks think Gausman was gamed, I disagree.  I think they were desperate for pitching and promoted him too quickly.

Who else would you say had their service time gamed?  Bundy didn't, Markakis didn't, Schoop didn't, Mancini didn't, Matusz didn't. 

If it's happening seven times a season per team on average we should have a big list of Orioles.

Well, some teams will be more than others..you know because they have actual talent that you want to game the system for.

We don’t know they didn’t game the system for guys like Schoop (who was brought up when they were contending for a playoff spot) and Mancini.  We just know they didn’t wait until the next season.  Still, they gained service time for that particular year.  Mancini and Schoop could have potentially be brought up sooner, especially with your theory that college players don’t need much MiL time.  Also, those guys weren’t really top prospects either.  Bundy was on a ML contract and had to be brought up.

They were dumb not to do it with Nick.

Matusz’s first appearance was in August.  I don’t know that we can say for sure anything there.

The Os are doing it with Diaz..they will with Adley (unless rules change).  They certainly may have done it with Akin and Kremer.