What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[Philip]

They didn’t game Manny. He was up just as soon as he could be. 19, I think. And that worked out ok.

[hoosiers]

I think we will be under 67.5 wins.  Too much pressure on our starting pitchers over the course of a season - especially if/when we deal Cobb.  

It would be nice to have Mancini back with Mountcastle and a healthy Santander, but our FO could deal Mancini as well.  If we add Adley to this mix in 2022 and Kjerstad in 2023, then we start to have the makings of a plus offense generated with internally developed and cheap guys.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

They didn’t game Manny. He was up just as soon as he could be. 19, I think. And that worked out ok.

That’s because they were a contender.  That’s a different situation, as was mentioned.

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s because they were a contender.  That’s a different situation, as was mentioned.

In that case the question is whether bringing up any of these guys early can make us a contender. I’m doubtful because we have too many holes in the minors, but maybe?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

In that case the question is whether bringing up any of these guys early can make us a contender. I’m doubtful because we have too many holes in the minors, but maybe?

Nah..it’s not the same.

We were in contention in 2012 when he was brought up.  If the Os are in contention in 2021 and he isn’t up and a performing, I would expect Adley to come up too.  (I’m expecting it anyway but no excuse not to do it if you are contending)

[Yardball85]

On 10/1/2020 at 3:52 PM, Frobby said:

Simple over/under poll, closing Nov. 2.    The O’s 2020 record of 25-35 projects out to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    What’s your early take on whether they will be over or under that number next year?

On the positive side, the O’s have improved their winning percentage fairly significantly in each of the last two years.   They’re a fairly young team that can get better with experience.    If they’re lucky, one of their best hitters (Mancini) comes back.    There are some prospects who can help the club next year, in addition to the guys who barely got their feet wet this year.   And, their Pythagorean record (28-32) was better than their actual mark.

On the other hand, the O’s did not finish strong.   14-16 the first half, 11-19 the second.    Not a good trend there.   It’s not unusual for bad teams to wear down as the season progresses, and this year was so short that the decent start has outsized influence on the overall record.    I also think the expanded roster size worked to the O’s advantage, as they were able to shorten the starts, rely more on relievers and shuttle pitchers off and on the roster.    There will be less opportunity for that next year.

So, what’s your early take?   Obviously there will be roster moves made in the next six months that will influence things, but I doubt we’ll see anything that dramatically changes the team.

 

 

Slightly over.  68-72 wins.

[Philip]

I wish it were possible to accurately extend this season out to a 4162 games. We started strong, and we were declining, I wonder how much that decline would’ve continued and what our final victory account whatever. There’s too many variables, so even guessing would be fruitless but I do wonder

[section18]

Over by a little.  Probably around 70 wins.. 3B and 2B improvement will determine how many over 68 wins. 

[Sports Guy]

This is a good question btw and, as a group, we are probably being a little too optimistic.

The question is, where will the improvement come from?  The team is already telling you to be disappointed this offseason. They aren’t spending money, at least not anything more than a few million.      
 

All of the improvement is going to have to come from the young players improving.  That can obviously be very substantial and it is what I’m expecting when I say they are going to win 70-75 games.  However, the defense isn’t strong right now and most of the young arms are still inconsistent at best.  
 

It’s a shame they won’t spend because I think added an established vet closer type guy to the pen would do wonders.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a good question btw and, as a group, we are probably being a little too optimistic.

The question is, where will the improvement come from?  The team is already telling you to be disappointed this offseason. They aren’t spending money, at least not anything more than a few million.      
 

All of the improvement is going to have to come from the young players improving.  That can obviously be very substantial and it is what I’m expecting when I say they are going to win 70-75 games.  However, the defense isn’t strong right now and most of the young arms are still inconsistent at best.  
 

It’s a shame they won’t spend because I think added an established bet closer type guy to the pen would do wonders.

I always wait a while before voting in a poll I started, so as to not influence the early voting.   But honestly, based on the team right now, I’d bet the under.   

One huge factor besides improvement of the young players is whether Mancini returns and is in top form.   I do not think he’s likely to be in top form, even assuming he’s healthy, but if he were, that would make a big difference.   Yes we have depth at the spots where he’d play, but at his best he’s a better hitter than those other players (except maybe Mountcastle, and we certainly can fit both those guys into the lineup at the same time).
 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a good question btw and, as a group, we are probably being a little too optimistic.

The question is, where will the improvement come from?  The team is already telling you to be disappointed this offseason. They aren’t spending money, at least not anything more than a few million.      
 

All of the improvement is going to have to come from the young players improving.  That can obviously be very substantial and it is what I’m expecting when I say they are going to win 70-75 games.  However, the defense isn’t strong right now and most of the young arms are still inconsistent at best.  
 

It’s a shame they won’t spend because I think added an established bet closer type guy to the pen would do wonders.

I think the team has told us not to expect many financial commitments toward FAs.  It is you who has chosen to interpret this as the team telling us to be disappointed. 

I was not expecting a major investment this offseason in a free agent or two.  I do not believe such an investment is warranted given both the current status of our rebuild and the financial uncertainty from coronavirus. 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I think the team has told us not to expect many financial commitments toward FAs.  It is you who has chosen to interpret this as the team telling us to be disappointed. 

I was not expecting a major investment this offseason in a free agent or two.  I do not believe such an investment is warranted given both the current status of our rebuild and the financial uncertainty from coronavirus. 

Well, that’s fine.  Personally, I never expect this ownership to do the intelligent thing, so I can’t say I’m disappointed or surprised but  I think the woe is me, I’m poor routine for the owners of a franchise worth over a billion dollars is absurd and a slap in the face to fans.  I was good with tanking a few years ago. Now it’s time to start spending and showing improvement.

However, most fans like to see Ws...and more Ws would come from spending smartly.  I’m not a huge FA guy but I do think there is value out there and payroll added to the team should happen.  
 

But hey, if you want to continue to be happy to watch 65-75 win teams, have at it.  To each their own.

[Frobby]

It will be an interesting offseason.  I’d bet a lot of teams will be looking to cut payroll due to financial uncertainty.    Bad time to be a free agent or even an expensive Arb eligible guy, I think. 

[WillyM]

As the trade deadline approached in 2020, the Orioles made it clear that they would be sellers, not buyers.  They were looking to build a winner years down the road, not in 2020.

That being the case, it's not surprising that the won-lost percentage dropped in the second half of the season, and they are now watching, for example, someone like Richard Bleier helping a team like the Miami Marlins win a playoff series.

I would dearly like to think that the Orioles will do so well in the first half that the front office won't trade players off the major league roster for prospects to be named later, who might, possibly, be useful four or five years down the road.  But I'm not sure that's going to be the case.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It will be an interesting offseason.  I’d bet a lot of teams will be looking to cut payroll due to financial uncertainty.    Bad time to be a free agent or even an expensive Arb eligible guy, I think. 

No doubt but it also means opportunities will be there for teams to get good players for less money than they would normally get.