What’s your early over/under on 67.5 wins in 2021?

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No doubt but it also means opportunities will be there for teams to get good players for less money than they would normally get.

I agree, but I’m not counting on the Orioles to be one of those teams.   I’m guessing the Red Sox will be.   

[Philip]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, that’s fine.  Personally, I never expect this ownership to do the intelligent thing, so I can’t say I’m disappointed or surprised but  I think the woe is me, I’m poor routine for the owners of a franchise worth over a billion dollars is absurd and a slap in the face to fans.  I was good with tanking a few years ago. Now it’s time to start spending and showing improvement.

However, most fans like to see Ws...and more Ws would come from spending smartly.  I’m not a huge FA guy but I do think there is value out there and payroll added to the team should happen.  
 

But hey, if you want to continue to be happy to watch 65-75 win teams, have at it.  To each their own.

I don’t disagree with that, but I don’t think the owners are  being cheap. They want a good ROI. Except for Nelson Cruz, all of our high dollar free agents have been fiascoes, I mean fiascoes for the ages. Not just Davis but Gallardo Cashner and Miley and Jimenez and Trumbo(yes he had 47 homers, but his defense was so horrible he only had a 2.7 WAr) and so on. If we can repeat the Iglesias signing, and IF that signing makes a meaningful difference, then sure, why not? Otherwise, there’s no reason to spend money on a sucky player, when a replacement guy is just as suck and costs less.
Our catching is awful, which means the pitchers suffer. The infield defense is awful, which means the pitchers suffer. depending on who is in the OF, our OF defense may also be bad, (though not as bad as the infield D.)Even if our pitching is good, and it is improving,  bad catching and bad defense means the pitchers get worn out sooner in the season and more quickly in the game. So what could actually be a strength will be ruined.

In order to improve meaningfully, we need a new 2B, a new 3B, a reliable-glove utility guy, better catching defense(which we’re not going to bother with) and good defense on the OF corners. That’s four solid guys we need to acquire, and we don’t have anyone in the high minors who can do all that.

I agree that it won’t happen this offseason. But it’s not because the owners are cheap.

[Sports Guy]

They are 100% being cheap and looking to line their pockets.  No question about it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with that, but I don’t think the owners are  being cheap. They want a good ROI. Except for Nelson Cruz, all of our high dollar free agents have been fiascoes, I mean fiascoes for the ages. Not just Davis but Gallardo Cashner and Miley and Jimenez and Trumbo(yes he had 47 homers, but his defense was so horrible he only had a 2.7 WAr) and so on. 

Of the high dollar ($20 mm+) FA contracts we’ve signed, most have turned out poorly.   The two major exceptions were Rafael Palmeiro (1994-98) and Miguel Tejada (2004-09 but traded after 2007).    If you want to go under $20 mm, Alomar’s 3/$17 mm deal in 1996-98) was a good deal.

Here’s an analysis I did of every $20 mm+ contract the Orioles ever gave out, including the ones that were extensions of existing players (so not free agent contracts).

 

[wildcard]

This is going to take a lot of patience.   I am sure Elias as it but it will be hard for the fans.

One of the biggest problem defensively is catching.   Rutschman is probably coming in 2022.   He solves the problem.   Elias may look for a better defensive catcher that can hit a little this off season but he will have to be cheap.

The starters will be learning in 2021.  Rodriguez will probably be up in 2022.   Hall maybe but I think his command issues may slow him some.   Relievers should be pretty good if they can find a healthy closer.  I expect Elias to sign a Milone type swingman for under 1M.  It could even be Milone. 

The outfield defense and offense will be much improved with Hays, Mullins, Santander and Diaz when he arrives.   

1B/DH is Mancini and Mountcastle split time with Valaika playing when needed.  I think the defense will improve the more they play.   I was impressed with Mountcastle picking balls in the dirt.

SS is Iglesias hopefully healthy and Velazquez is really good defensively.  I can live with he not hitting for the defense as a backup.  

2B/3B.  I think Valiaka is good at 2B.  A two way player.   Elias will be looking for better at 3B this off season.  Again, has to be cheap.

I think the O's gradually improve in 2021 and get a big boost from AR and Rodriguez in 2022.   They will be a contender in 2022. 

Patience is required.

 

[Philip]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of the high dollar ($20 mm+) FA contracts we’ve signed, most have turned out poorly.   The two major exceptions were Rafael Palmeiro (1994-98) and Miguel Tejada (2004-09 but traded after 2007).    If you want to go under $20 mm, Alomar’s 3/$17 mm deal in 1996-98) was a good deal.

Here’s an analysis I did of every $20 mm+ contract the Orioles ever gave out, including the ones that were extensions of existing players (so not free agent contracts).

 

I was only referring to the last 7-8 years. Go back far enough and everything normalizes, but recently, what I said is entirely valid. Dan, for whatever reason, made a collection of apocalyptically bad FA signings.

The point is that not only is there no reason to hand out high dollar contracts at this time, recent history has shown them to be lousy investments.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's gradually improve in 2021 and get a big boost from AR and Rodriguez in 2022.   They will be contender in 2022. 

Patience is required.

I think most O’s fans would take that in a heartbeat.    One more year of being bad or mediocre followed by being a contender?   Sign me up!    I do think next year’s team will be interesting to watch, to see how the younger players develop.   

[Sports Guy]

I agree patience is needed but you can be patient while also adding some pieces.

The patience has to be there because you are going to be so young and reliant on so many young pieces.  That’s fine.

But, let’s say for example that the Os are able to add Stroman or Kluber and add a back end vet reliever like Melancon, Holland, McGee, etc...I think those additions would be quite valuable to the team, both in terms of wins and in terms of bet leadership for young players.  We are talking about adding 25-30ishM to a payroll that will probably be lucky to get to 50 million next year.  This isn’t some kind of a whacky, irresponsible spending spree.  

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree patience is needed but you can be patient while also adding some pieces.

The patience has to be there because you are going to be so young and reliant on so many young pieces.  That’s fine.

But, let’s say for example that the Os are able to add Stroman or Kluber and add a back end vet reliever like Melancon, Holland, McGee, etc...I think those additions would be quite valuable to the team, both in terms of wins and in terms of bet leadership for young players.  We are talking about adding 25-30ishM to a payroll that will probably be lucky to get to 50 million next year.  This isn’t some kind of a whacky, irresponsible spending spree.  

Have you seem any evidence that the owners will be willing to add even 25M to the payroll?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have you seem any evidence that the owners will be willing to add even 25M to the payroll?

No, as I have stated.

But if all we did was discuss what the Orioles ownership will likely do, OH should just shut down right now because there would be very little, if anything, to discuss.

And, taken within the context of the conversation, you can be patient (as wildcard was discussing) while also adding some pieces to this team to make them more competitive now and later.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, as I have stated.

But if all we did was discuss what the Orioles ownership will likely do, OH should just shut down right now because there would be very little, if anything, to discuss.

And, taken within the context of the conversation, you can be patient (as wildcard was discussing) while also adding some pieces to this team to make them more competitive now and later.

I don't know, I guess I'd just rather concentrate on more likely outcomes.

For what it is worth it isn't a bad idea if you can get him someone for a reasonable market deal and not have to overpay to lure them to Baltimore.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know, I guess I'd just rather concentrate on more likely outcomes.

For what it is worth it isn't a bad idea if you can get him someone for a reasonable market deal and not have to overpay to lure them to Baltimore.

Well, the likely outcome is they basically return the team we saw at the end of last year.

Ok, now that we are done here, what else should we discuss?  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, the likely outcome is they basically return the team we saw at the end of last year.

Ok, now that we are done here, what else should we discuss?  

How about Chris Davis and his contract?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How about Chris Davis and his contract?

It’s bad. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, the likely outcome is they basically return the team we saw at the end of last year.

Ok, now that we are done here, what else should we discuss?  

How the heck do 2,669 people feel confident reviewing an early access game that dropped at 1PM yesterday?

Geez folks, how about you actually play a game for a while first instead of reviewing the character generation sliders?

Sorry for taking the thread off topic but it's nothing we haven't seen before from me.