#5 Prospect - Billy Rowell

[Frobby]

I'm not slamming this, either. I would have put him a little lower, but he's still top 10. The OH has a long history of not relying too much on current year statistics, but also considering tools and ceiling, and so it doesn't really surprise me to see Rowell this high. Certainly next year he'll have to put up very solid numbers to stay this high or higher.

Looking at his defensive numbers, he is definitely making strides on that end:

2006: 47 games, 22 PO, 102 AST, 18 E, 10 DP, .873 Fldg. %

2007: 82 games, 30 PO, 137 AST, 21 E, 5 DP, .888 Fldg %

2008: 104 games, 62 PO, 211 AST, 22 E, 19 DP, .925 Fldg. %

[Tony-OH]

my apologies but.....lame

If you want to disagree, fine, but try using proper punctuation and capitalization when you bash our work as lame. Also, you may want to consider providing some analysis as to why you would have gone with another pick. See, this is a big boy board where analysis is expected and normally given by our outstanding members.

I have absolutely no problem with people not liking this pick or any of our picks to tell you the truth, but I do expect that people will take the time to explain why they would have gone with another pick instead of making some childish ESPN boardish type of post.

[Tony-OH]

To me, it's extremely encouraging that Tony and the OH staff feel Rowell is worthy of the #5 spot in the rankings. I do agree that I'd rank him ahead of Snyder, but I think I would've put him somewhere around 8-10. I just feel the pitching in our system is so strong with guys like Hernandez, Erbe, Bergeson, etc. that it seems like a stretch to put an unproven Rowell ahead of them all. That said, this speaks wonders about his potential. I really feel 2009 will be sort of a make or break season for Rowell. Either we'll get to see why he was a top 10 pick out of high school or we'll see more of the same - something that would be extremely discouraging, IMO.

Before I felt like they should promote Rowell to Bowie, mainly because I wanna see him get to the pros ASAP. However, the more I think about it, he needs to prove himself somewhere and I think starting next year in Frederick is a good way to do it. He is still only 20 years old. If he can start out well it Frederick and earn a promotion to Bowie, I think a lot more people here will be talking about our 3B of the future. After all, a 21 year old in AA isn't too shabby at all.

Some good points here but let me explain some of my reasoning here and it will also give everyone a little bit of a clue about the next few picks. To me, the top end of our pitching prospects are already on the list. Everyone else I see as either a 3rd/4th starter at best, back end of the rotation guy, a reliever, injury-marred, or just too inexperienced to know for sure. Rowell still has a chance to become an impact bat. He needed to fail this year and in the beginning, he did. He made some adjustments and from some reports, may have started to listen to the coaching a little better.

He's 19-years old and he basically held his own in a strong Carolina League against older players. The ball just comes off his bat differently than other players and that's the power that will soon show itself. Rowell will start to fill out over the next two years like Snyder did and if he can shorten that swing a bit, he's going to have some sustained success.

Remember, this is a kid that would be going into his junior year this year and he's improving. He's been pushed a bit and that's ok, it's hurt his overall numbers but it may provide the motivation Rowell needs to get better.

Just because he's not Travis Snider does not make him a bust. I've talked to scouts in and out of the organization and I've yet to hear one that doesn't think he won't eventually hit. The tools are there and if you look at the numbers closely, you can see a guy ready to break out.

This list has always been about ceiling and in my opinion, Rowell still has the highest ceiling amongst our hitting prospects not named Wieters.

[Hank Scorpio]

I think it's quite a bold pick, but to me it's encouraging that you guys still feel strongly enough about Rowell to put him here.

I'm curious about Rowell's ability to stick at third base, having not seen him play.

I'd say he needs to take a big step forward next year to garner my enthusiasm at this point. But like I said, I haven't seen him so that's based entirely off the fact that he had an injury free season in which he put up a .683 OPS. Granted, he was a 19 year old in high A ball...

He is towards the top of the monitoring list next year for me. I'd be elated with a Brandon Snyder-esque rise from him in the next 18 months.

[Frobby]

Some good points here but let me explain some of my reasoning here and it will also give everyone a little bit of a clue about the next few picks. To me, the top end of our pitching prospects are already on the list. Everyone else I see as either a 3rd/4th starter at best, back end of the rotation guy, a reliever, injury-marred, or just too inexperienced to know for sure. Rowell still has a chance to become an impact bat. He needed to fail this year and in the beginning, he did. He made some adjustments and from some reports, may have started to listen to the coaching a little better.

He's 19-years old and he basically held his own in a strong Carolina League against older players. The ball just comes off his bat differently than other players and that's the power that will soon show itself. Rowell will start to fill out over the next two years like Snyder did and if he can shorten that swing a bit, he's going to have some sustained success.

Remember, this is a kid that would be going into his junior year this year and he's improving. He's been pushed a bit and that's ok, it's hurt his overall numbers but it may provide the motivation Rowell needs to get better.

Just because he's not Travis Snider does not make him a bust. I've talked to scouts in and out of the organization and I've yet to hear one that doesn't think he won't eventually hit. The tools are there and if you look at the numbers closely, you can see a guy ready to break out.

This list has always been about ceiling and in my opinion, Rowell still has the highest ceiling amongst our hitting prospects not named Wieters.

Everything you've said makes sense to me. One reason I'd have him a tad lower is his vulnerability to LHP. It will really limit his potential if he keeps putting up terrible splits vs. LHP.

[WebLink21]

If you want to disagree, fine, but try using proper punctuation and capitalization when you bash our work as lame. Also, you may want to consider providing some analysis as to why you would have gone with another pick. See, this is a big boy board where analysis is expected and normally given by our outstanding members.

I have absolutely no problem with people not liking this pick or any of our picks to tell you the truth, but I do expect that people will take the time to explain why they would have gone with another pick instead of making some childish ESPN boardish type of post.

Nice! Way to call him out on that. When I read his reply, I was thinking the same thing about offering some type of analysis about his opinion and the horrible grammar. :clap3:

Keep up the good work!

[Tony-OH]

Everything you've said makes sense to me. One reason I'd have him a tad lower is his vulnerability to LHP. It will really limit his potential if he keeps putting up terrible splits vs. LHP.

Agreed and as I noted in his write up, it's one thing that will limit his ceiling if he can't figure that out. His inability to hit lefties so far in his career is the one thing that holds me back from jumping up and down about him.

Jim Thome struggled against lefties early on in his career and has only a career .240 average and .776 OPS against the southpaws and he's had a pretty good career.

I'm not calling Rowell the next Thome, but just saying that guys have figured out to at least become semi-effective against them and still had careers.

[Greg Pappas]

I found an older YouTube video of him... if anyone's interested.

[OsandBohs11]

My apologies again...

I did not mean to insult your work as you said Tony, but Rowell at #5, I don't think that it is fair to the other prospects that improved. Brandon Erbe, who is 20 years old in Frederick, improved immensely this year. At the same time Reimold, 24, had a full season of health and showed a ton of power. Brandon Snyder, 21, showed a vast improvement this year. I was actually able to interview him this summer, and had an article published in "Press Box" magazine.

Before this year and until about the half way through the year I tried to keep Rowell in my top 5 but his skills have not translated. I'm hoping that next year with another stint in Frederick he will improve greatly, just like Erbe did.

I agree that his potential and ceiling deserves him a spot in the top 10, which some people on the board do not believe. After talking to Brandon, I've learned the amount of pressure that these 1st round kids are put through at the beginnings of their careers. However, I believe that along with the potential to be a good baseball player, you also have to have the mental make-up of someone that can survive in this league. For Rowell's sake I would hope he have a big year in 2009 if he wants to help this team in the future.

Again, I apologize for my comments.

[Stotle]

I'm not a huge fan of the pick, but I completely agree with it given Tony's explained measuring system. I think he does have the highest upside of BAL MiL hitters outside of Wieters. He's still a little too far away, and there are too many question marks, for me to rank him above Reimold. My scale just puts a higher importance on likelihood to reach ceiling -- given that Reimold is ready for a ML shot and put up solid numbers at AA (while staying healthy) I value his above-average potential over Rowell's well above-average potential.

I see the reasoning, and agree with the pick based on that reasoning. I'd just go in a different direction.

[Tony-OH]

My apologies again...

I did not mean to insult your work as you said Tony, but Rowell at #5, I don't think that it is fair to the other prospects that improved. Brandon Erbe, who is 20 years old in Frederick, improved immensely this year. At the same time Reimold, 24, had a full season of health and showed a ton of power. Brandon Snyder, 21, showed a vast improvement this year. I was actually able to interview him this summer, and had an article published in "Press Box" magazine.

Before this year and until about the half way through the year I tried to keep Rowell in my top 5 but his skills have not translated. I'm hoping that next year with another stint in Frederick he will improve greatly, just like Erbe did.

I agree that his potential and ceiling deserves him a spot in the top 10, which some people on the board do not believe. After talking to Brandon, I've learned the amount of pressure that these 1st round kids are put through at the beginnings of their careers. However, I believe that along with the potential to be a good baseball player, you also have to have the mental make-up of someone that can survive in this league. For Rowell's sake I would hope he have a big year in 2009 if he wants to help this team in the future.

Again, I apologize for my comments.

No problem and thanks for the response. I have no problem with that line of thinking but for me it's all about who's I would rather have if I could only have one of the guys. I just think when it's said and done Rowell is going to have a longer and better major league career.

It's always a risk reward type of thing when you put a guy high on the list who hasn't put up the numbers yet.

[Tony-OH]

I'm not a huge fan of the pick, but I completely agree with it given Tony's explained measuring system. I think he does have the highest upside of BAL MiL hitters outside of Wieters. He's still a little too far away, and there are too many question marks, for me to rank him above Reimold. My scale just puts a higher importance on likelihood to reach ceiling -- given that Reimold is ready for a ML shot and put up solid numbers at AA (while staying healthy) I value his above-average potential over Rowell's well above-average potential.

I see the reasoning, and agree with the pick based on that reasoning. I'd just go in a different direction.

Which is totally understandable. Reimold certainly does have much better likely hood of reaching the majors and having some success than Rowell, but the key thing is even if Rowell repeats Frederick next year and goes to Bowie the year before, he'll be at Bowie at 21-years old. That gives him three years in Double-A to do what Reimold did this year. I'm willing to bet Rowell will end up a better overall hitter, but of course time will tell.

[Big Mac]

This is a good pick.

Take out Rowell's month of May and he had a very good season for a 19-year old at Frederick.

Just from my interaction with him and from reports from Avencill and others, I think Rowell really grew up this year. He was a great person to talk to at the games, and he seemed to really mature on some of the interviews I read with him.

The thing with Rowell is he seems to be really hard on himself. I noticed a huge difference in his personality form when he was slumping in May and when he was hitting well late in the season. In May, he just seemed really down, but late in the year he seemed like the happiest guy on earth.

He was great with the fans from what I saw. His defense was much improved from last year, and he showed a strong arm and decent range.

I firmly believe that Billy Rowell is on the verge of greatness.

[Stotle]

Which is totally understandable. Reimold certainly does have much better likely hood of reaching the majors and having some success than Rowell, but the key thing is even if Rowell repeats Frederick next year and goes to Bowie the year before, he'll be at Bowie at 21-years old. That gives him three years in Double-A to do what Reimold did this year. I'm willing to bet Rowell will end up a better overall hitter, but of course time will tell.

Oh, I imagine you are closer to right than I am. I openly admit I'm conservative and have a harder time giving players the benefit of the doubt. No question Rowell is among the five best BAL prospects based on tools and potential -- I tend to think you've seen reasons to be optimistic and I have no qualms with that whatsoever. Like I said, I tend to value a little more certainty over ceiling if I see potential problems -- it's just my nature.

Put another way, I like as little distance between ceiling and floor as I can get, and then I like my projection to be as close to ceiling as possible (if that makes any sense?).

Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on #6. Thanks for adding your personal thoughts in these threads, as it adds context to the write-ups.

[tywright]

If Rowell is the 5th best prospect, is this an indication he'll stick at 3B? If he can't stick at 3B, I don't see how he can possibly be ahead of Snyder or even Reimold. And if you're basing this off potential then why isn't Erbe ahead of Rowell?