Rebuild mode or Sell mode?

[Philip]

30 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Baltimore is the 20th largest metro area (bordering the 6th largest metro area) and it has one of the best stadiums in baseball. I don't think the Orioles are going anywhere.

Tampa is actually the 18th largest metro area, the problem is that the stadium is in St. Pete. They have been trying to get a stadium built in Tampa for years to no avail.

There really isn't an obvious place to move a team. Third team in/near NYC, third team in the LA area (Riverside Rays?), Charlotte, Portland and Vegas are probably the best options.

San Antonio. They are in between Houston and Dallas, and would not syphon away too many fans of either team, It’s a fairly affluent city, has a large population from Latin countries and already has a minor league team so they already have a stadium.

Or Portland. Wouldn’t mind a team there, but I bet the Mariners would.

[Philip]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You mean good choices like Appel and Aiken, 2 of the players they drafted high as a result of tanking.

The luck I mentioned was that one of those guys didn’t sign at all, and the Astros got a compensatory pick that they used to choose Correa, and I think they traded the other guy to Pittsburg, where he was a hopeless disaster.

Preston Tucker and John Singleton were huge flops, But by and large, the Astros had enough luck to cover up the problems.

Plus, they cheated, and that accomplishes a lot.

 

edit: I just looked up both of those guys, and yes, each is an example of supreme good luck on the part of the Astros. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Philip

[weams]

6 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

You can't force someone to stay in a lease where the team isn't making money.  The Rays are a charity case that only survives because of MLB revenue sharing.  You think that MLB will block the Rays from moving.  I don't care what the lease says, if the Rays can prove they are being forced to stay in an unprofitable situation, the lease will be easy to get out of (with a few million penalty).

I don’t believe this is true. 

[GuidoSarducci]

5 hours ago, ScGO's said:

What would it take for Baltimore to do something like the Green Bay Packers and have the city own the team? That keeps the O's in Baltimore forever.  Didn't our tax dollars build the stadium?

Any sale has to approved by MLB owners and they would never go for that.  

The Packers are the one exception in all of sports, because they had been that way forever when the NFL starting getting big time and well-organized, and the owners realized they wanted at least the threat of moving their team out of the city to get the best deals out of the residents.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

The luck I mentioned was that one of those guys didn’t sign at all, and the Astros got a compensatory pick that they used to choose Correa, and I think they traded the other guy to Pittsburg, where he was a hopeless disaster.

Preston Tucker and John Singleton were huge flops, But by and large, the Astros had enough luck to cover up the problems.

Plus, they cheated, and that accomplishes a lot.

 

edit: I just looked up both of those guys, and yes, each is an example of supreme good luck on the part of the Astros. 

No, they chose Bregman, not Correa.

[SteveA]

8 hours ago, ScGO's said:

What would it take for Baltimore to do something like the Green Bay Packers and have the city own the team? That keeps the O's in Baltimore forever.  Didn't our tax dollars build the stadium?

The city of Green Bay does not own the Packers.

They are owned by shareholders who own stick in the team.  Of course many, but not all, of those people live in or around GB, but the municipality doesn't own them.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No, they chose Bregman, not Correa.

Well, that worked out pretty well too.

[connja]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

There is no doubt the team will be better this year. Subtracting Alberto is a plus, and although subtracting Iglesias is a minus at the moment, I understand the trade and I expect we will open the season with a better SS than Martin or Valiaka( an’ it Please God) the pitching will be much improved, unless NONE of our potential starters pans out, which is statistically and realistically unlikely. The defense will remain poor, but we can improve it between now and April so long as we do something about SS and 3B, and put defense in the OF. I’ve washed my hands of the catching, that’s going to be terrible, but overall, there’s every reason to expect a better team.

So you’re going to get what you want, even if Mike isn’t calling you every hour or so to make sure you approve.

And blessings to you as well!

Well we did get rid of 3 of our top hitters in Alberto, Iglasias and Nunez, so I wouldn't say "there is no doubt the team will be better..."  In fact most prognosticators have us being worse.  That said, I do think we will show some progress in the w/l column and with the pitching in particular.  

I'd like to see us "waste" a couple million bucks on a few free agents that could help, but expect next winter before they start spending. Another year of losing gets us one more high pick in 2022 to go with the #5 we'll have next summer. Covid will be done, and we can expect a 162 game season (with fans) in 2022.  Perhaps they'll be ready to release Chris Davis, but at worst will have him just one more year.   They'll have a much better sense  of progress with young pitchers coming up, and Rutchman will like be ready to go.  Makes much more sense to start spending money next winter.

[BohKnowsBmore]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

Would a new Camden Yards lease reduce the amount the Angelos could get in sale?   I would not think so.  

I think the certainty of a lease with reasonable to favorable terms (removing cost uncertainty) could actually enhance value. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

12 hours ago, rudyrooster said:

I hope Elias and Sig aren't outsmarting themselves.  I would like to see a better product on the field this season.  I don't see how adding a couple of "decent" free agents can harm the rebuild.  Can it?  Or are we keeping payroll down and not tying the franchise to a long-term stadium lease signs of something else?

I can envision a scenario in which ownership commits to spending into the red in contending years if Elias is willing to keep payroll as lean as reasonably possible in the rebuilding years that precede that window. 

[AnythingO's]

3 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I can envision a scenario in which ownership commits to spending into the red in contending years if Elias is willing to keep payroll as lean as reasonably possible in the rebuilding years that precede that window. 

Peter did that under Buck and we are paying for that miscalculation now (Davis + lost prospects like Hader, Davies). I have ZERO faith that John A will do that but I could be wrong. I think ME will have to demonstrate a business=case ROI on any FA acquisition.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Well, that worked out pretty well too.

Sure but like you said, that’s luck.  That isn’t a function of rebuilding.

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but like you said, that’s luck.  That isn’t a function of rebuilding.

There is a element of luck to it to pick a draft choice that succeeds but it was a function of the rebuild that they had high picks.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

There is a element of luck to it to pick a draft choice that succeeds but it was a function of the rebuild that they had high picks.

Yes and they failed to sign one of those picks and the players they chose ended up sucking.  
 

Which goes back to the question I asked.  What did they do, in terms of rebuilding, that caused them to win a title that they couldn’t have accomplished otherwise?

[Philip]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but like you said, that’s luck.  That isn’t a function of rebuilding.

Of course. I never said otherwise. And that’s two major crises the Astros dodged, that saved them a year or so. So all things being equal it’s not unreasonable to expect us to take a year longer.