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Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?  

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  1. 1. Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

    • Yes, he should be on the Opening Day Roster if he has a good spring
      8
    • Yes, no matter what, but only after he passes the date for a 7th year of control
      20
    • Only if we are contending and he’s needed to boost the team
      4
    • Only if he looks ready to be an above average major leaguer immediately
      11
    • Only if he looks ready to be a competent major leaguer
      20
    • Only for a September call-up at most
      9
    • No, save his service time and bring him up in 2022
      17

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Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

People get caught up in the whole has to prove himself in the minors stuff the GM spouts. Adley is 23 He was the 1-1 pick out of college. Now maybe he busts, maybe he's Wieters but wast

Oriole1940
Oriole1940

This is the most sensible suggestion about AR that I have read.  Since none has the power to look into the future for AR s handling of  the physical, mental or emotional challenges of baseball,  I too

Frobby
Frobby

It isn’t a long list.   I recall Bob Horner (1:1 pick 1977, 21.9 rWAR and 127 OPS+) and Pete Incaviglia (1:8 pick 1985, 10.3 rWAR, 104 OPS+) never played in the minors at all.    John Olerud (1:1 pick

LTO's Major Leaguer

LTO's

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

ZiPS also has the 25 year old from Korea as their #2 guy.

 

Why do you insist on making this a moral argument about Adley's earnings? Seems ironic considering you litter every post about him with the comment that the Orioles should "catch him into the ground." 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Posted
12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Why do you insist on making this a moral argument about Adley's earnings? Seems ironic considering you litter every post about him with the comment that the Orioles should "catch him into the ground." 

Odd choice of quote to use while coming at me for something else entirely but OK.

The question is what should happen.  To me the answer is obvious , what should be done is what is best for the player.  In this case any learning curve issues AR would have would be happening in a non-competitive season so the team isn't going to suffer.  Does anyone think that that AR can't outperform the catchers the O's are currently going to use in 2021?

So for the catching into the ground comment, it wasn't meant literally.  It's a catchy ...get it?...way to express the idea that the O's should be concerned with maximizing the value they get from the player for the six season in which they have control.  I'm not suggesting they catch him 150 games a year. 

My guess is if you tell Adley he can either start 2021 in the majors but he will be subject to a heavy catching workload for six seasons or he can make his debut after the super 2 cutoff in 2022 and spend time at first base he'll take the former.

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LTO's Major Leaguer

LTO's

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

what should be done is what is best for the player.

What should be done is what is best for the team. IF Adley is as good as you think he is, as in good enough to be a Major League regular without playing above A ball, then he will make a lot of money when he's a FA regardless. What I don't understand is why you're proclaiming that it's undeniable that starting him in the majors this year is better for his development than getting meaningful ABs in AA/AAA. That's YOUR opinion but I hardly think it's a fact. I don't think any of these scouting publications have him above a 45 present value and even Keith Law who is about as against service time manipulation than anybody believes he needs to spend more time in the minors. I think we ALL agree that when he does go down this year, it shouldn't be the whole year. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

What should be done is what is best for the team. IF Adley is as good as you he is, as in good enough to be a Major League regular without playing above A ball, then he will make a lot of money when he's a FA regardless. What I don't understand is why you're proclaiming that it's undeniable that starting him in the majors this year is better for his development than getting meaningful ABs in AA/AAA. That's YOUR opinion but I hardly think it's a fact. I don't think any of these scouting publications have him above a 45 present value and even Keith Law who is about as against service time manipulation than anybody believes he needs to spend more time in the minors. I think we ALL agree that when he does go down this year, it shouldn't be the whole year. 

A two year delay in his free agency could cost him tens of millions of dollars.

Would you agree that their are things he can learn in the majors that he can't learn in AA/AAA?

Is there anything he can learn in AA/AAA that he can't learn in the majors?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A two year delay in his free agency could cost him tens of millions of dollars.

Would you agree that their are things he can learn in the majors that he can't learn in AA/AAA?

Is there anything he can learn in AA/AAA that he can't learn in the majors?

I think there are things he can possibly learn faster in AA/AAA than he can learn them in the majors, going back to my Sodoku analogy.  

Let’s say ZiPS is right and Rutschman would be a .664 OPS guy right now if we put him in the majors.    Should we do that when we have two catchers on hand who are likely to hit better?   You could make the argument that even if those numbers hold, Rutschman will be better overall because he’s the better defender.   Or, you could argue that even if Rutschman is not as good as them this year, the experience will push him up the learning curve.    But I don’t feel either of those arguments is that compelling.   Pretty much, I want Rutschman to get some minor league time under his belt and make a strong case that he’s likely to outperform Severino and/or Sisco pretty much immediately.   

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A two year delay in his free agency could cost him tens of millions of dollars.

Would you agree that their are things he can learn in the majors that he can't learn in AA/AAA?

Is there anything he can learn in AA/AAA that he can't learn in the majors?

Why would you waste a year (or more) of team control and cost us games to have him learn on the job? I'm OK with giving him some consideration for last year but let him have some success in high minors before pushing him to the bigs. If he is as good as you think he will be up soon enough. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would you waste a year (or more) of team control and cost us games to have him learn on the job? I'm OK with giving him some consideration for last year but let him have some success in high minors before pushing him to the bigs. If he is as good as you think he will be up soon enough. 

Do you think AR learning on the job is going to cost them games over Sisco and Severino?

I don't.  I think his defense and raw power alone indicate he'd be more valuable.

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DrinkinWithFermi All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

1.5 WAR though which is the same as Hays and Mountcastle.

That's not exactly the difference between the basement of the AL East and a playoff spot, so I'd still rather let him develop for a few more months at AA and/or AAA while also letting Severino and Sisco audition for contenders until the trade deadline. Ideally at least one of the two will be playing well enough in mid-late July to net us a prospect or two from someone looking for an offensive upgrade at catcher down the stretch and AR has mashed his way to Norfolk and is hitting well there.

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Orioles0615 Hangout Grand Counsel

Orioles0615

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Posted
On 2/18/2021 at 7:58 PM, Can_of_corn said:

People get caught up in the whole has to prove himself in the minors stuff the GM spouts.

Adley is 23

He was the 1-1 pick out of college.

Now maybe he busts, maybe he's Wieters but wasting a season in the minors isn't going to "develop" him.

Sisco was in the majors, as a catcher, at 22.

By all accounts this kid's makeup is off the charts.  Nothing he can learn in the minors he can't learn in the majors.

Keeping him down is all about gaming his service time.

 

Not to mention it seems players are in their prime younger and younger these days, you would be just wasting his prime in the minors. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

It helps the team to get AR his 7th year rather than speeding up the FA process on a lost season. But next year he'll be 24 on opening day I believe. He should be ready out of the gate by that point. 

He gets the 7th year as long as he isn't up before the third week of April. (or thereabouts)

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