McGregor on Rutschman: "They're throwing it (fastballs) by him right now"

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There have been 55 no. 1 overall picks and if Wieters were one of them, he’d rank 25th in career rWAR, solidly in the middle of the pack.   (You do have to take into account that the last 13 no. 1 picks have had less time to accumulate rWAR than Wieters.)

So in that sense, if Rutschman were a clone of Wieters than would be an averagish outcome.   But it would still be very disappointing for two reasons:

1.   Rutschman wasn’t seen as an average 1:1 pick, but quite possibly the best 1:1 to come along in a decade.   

2.   This franchise can’t afford for him to be an averagish 1:1.    We absolutely need him to be significantly better than that.  
 

You use this same philosophy every time you discuss 1st round picks, but all 1:1s aren't the same. Especially when you take into consideration the huge busts of mostly high schoolers that bring that WAR average down.

Anything less than a career with multiple All-Star berths for Rutschman would be a hug disappointment for everyone. If he ends up Wieters, I'll say it, he would rate as a bust as a 1:1 pick in my opinion.

Saying all that, we're way to early to start getting concerned over his professional start due to the circumstances. If he puts up a dud this year at Bowie then we can start talking Wieters.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

This season cannot get here soon enough. This is the third thread in the past few weeks analyzing whether Adley Rutschman can hit. Here's what we know in 2021 (which isn't a lot):  He's had 15 ML spring training PA and has an .817 OPS. In his last two games, he was about a foot away from hitting a home run off a major league reliever against Toronto and hit a nuke off a solid MLB pitcher in Daniel Norris that almost took the third baseman's head off. Per Meoli, he's done well in minor league games and the one he scouted, he went 1-3 with his last ab being a robbed double. He's also walked 3 times and is pretty consistently working counts. 

Now, he's struck out 6 times which is the blemish here. How much of this can be attributed to small sample noise, pressing (as Hyde mentioned) or not being able to catch up to upper 90s fastballs remains to be seen. At the end of the day, he's clearly been able to hold his own and perform pretty well so really the only disappointment I see so far is that the Orioles aren't giving him the at bats that other teams are giving some of their prospects. I think if he had his current statline after 35 ABs we'd all be relatively pleased given the mini freakout over his Delmarva numbers. 

Yeah, I'm not sure why he wasn't given more ABs this spring unless they were hiding him a bit. I'm still trying to figure out how Elias likes to do things with his top prospects and it's been hard to tell because of this damn COVID crap.

Hopefully this will all quiet down when he goes down to Bowie and puts up some great numbers, gets pushed to AAA and finishes off the year with people wondering whether he's #1 or #2 overall prospect in baseball once again.

 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You use this same philosophy every time you discuss 1st round picks, but all 1:1s aren't the same. Especially when you take into consideration the huge busts of mostly high schoolers that bring that WAR average down.

Anything less than a career with multiple All-Star berths for Rutschman would be a hug disappointment for everyone. If he ends up Wieters, I'll say it, he would rate as a bust as a 1:1 pick in my opinion.

Saying all that, we're way to early to start getting concerned over his professional start due to the circumstances. If he puts up a dud this year at Bowie then we can start talking Wieters.

You realize, of course, that Wieters was a four-time all star.   That checks the “multiple all star berths” box.   

As to your point that “all 1:1s aren’t the same,” I think I covered that in my post when I said “Rutschman wasn’t seen as an average 1:1 pick, but quite possibly the best 1:1 pick to come along in a decade.”   So I’m not really sure we disagree at all.    I said if he turned out to be Wieters it would be very disappointing, you said it would be a huge disappointment.   Are those things different?

Now I wouldn’t call that a “bust” but that’s just because I reserve that term for guys who aren’t good major league players.    

[survivedc]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You use this same philosophy every time you discuss 1st round picks, but all 1:1s aren't the same. Especially when you take into consideration the huge busts of mostly high schoolers that bring that WAR average down.

Anything less than a career with multiple All-Star berths for Rutschman would be a hug disappointment for everyone. If he ends up Wieters, I'll say it, he would rate as a bust as a 1:1 pick in my opinion.

Saying all that, we're way to early to start getting concerned over his professional start due to the circumstances. If he puts up a dud this year at Bowie then we can start talking Wieters.

High school #1 overalls have a higher average WAR than College. Of those that signed, 22 HSers for an avg of 29.3 and 21.2 median, 24 College signees for an avg of 17.9 and median of 19.9.

However, and to your point, there are 9 HS kids who had WAR’s under 10 and only 7 from College. The HS average is buoyed by ARod, Griffey and Chipper, but even outside of them, 3 guys had WAR’s over 40 (no college draftees have that). Worth noting that Price, Cole and Strasburg all have a good chance of surpassing the 40WAR plateau.

 

[eddie83]

I’m not worried about his number of spring at bats. Games are to get the regulars ready, not showcase top prospects as much as we may want to see them. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I’m not worried about his number of spring at bats. Games are to get the regulars ready, not showcase top prospects as much as we may want to see them. 

I think the spring is also used to get top prospects experience playing with and against major league talent.

 

[Sports Guy]

I will say this....we need to not get wrapped up in his ranking and look at him as a player.  I was hammered on here for my immediate take on Wieters.  

The thought was, how could the scouts be wrong?  I everyone says he is great.  Sometimes, the obvious gets missed and it got missed from Wieters.  He was never an athlete. He was always stiff with a poor swing (call it long, slow bat, whatever..it wasn’t good).

If Adley is missing fastballs because of a slow bat or something like that, I will immediately be concerned.  I have never seen him outside of some highlights, so I’m not saying that’s his issue but I agree with Tony that it is something to watch for as he faces tougher pitching.

[connja]

Would anyone trade AR for Witt straight up today?  I would.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I will say this....we need to not get wrapped up in his ranking and look at him as a player.  I was hammered on here for my immediate take on Wieters.  

The thought was, how could the scouts be wrong?  I everyone says he is great.  Sometimes, the obvious gets missed and it got missed from Wieters.  He was never an athlete. He was always stiff with a poor swing (call it long, slow bat, whatever..it wasn’t good).

If Adley is missing fastballs because of a slow bat or something like that, I will immediately be concerned.  I have never seen him outside of some highlights, so I’m not saying that’s his issue but I agree with Tony that it is something to watch for as he faces tougher pitching.

What fooled me with Wieters wasn’t the scouts.   It was his 1.053 OPS in A+/AA, with no sign of degradation when he went from one level to the other.    You expect a guy like that to do better than .722 in the majors.    

[Philip]

5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Wieters part 2?

Everyone is disappointed because Wieters wasn’t the Risen Savior. He had a very good career, and if AR does as well, I won’t complain too much. Yes, a let down, but still a fine and long career.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm not sure how a .817 OPS is a disappointment.  I know, extremely small sample size.  If he hits 3 HR in his next 15 AB, posters will be calling him the second coming of Johnny Bench.  I was afraid he would stuggle to hit major league pitching, since his last experience against other teams, he struggled against single A pitching.  It just seems it is best if he spends most of the season in AA, with maybe a late season callup to AAA and even the majors. 

By 23-years old Johnny Bench was already a rookie of the year, MVP, and 4x All-Star so no one should be suggesting Rutschman is the next Johnny Bench. 

[eddie83]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the spring is also used to get top prospects experience playing with and against major league talent.

 

Of course it is. It’s great for them.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What fooled me with Wieters wasn’t the scouts.   It was his 1.053 OPS in A+/AA, with no sign of degradation when he went from one level to the other.    You expect a guy like that to do better than .722 in the majors.    

Wieters' expectations went through the roof because of his dominance in the minor leagues. I always bring up the fact that Joe Jordan said he's similar to Varitek when he was drafted, and although he may have under shot Varitek's bat a bit at the major league level, it ended up not a bad comp.

[eddie83]

19 minutes ago, connja said:

Would anyone trade AR for Witt straight up today?  I would.

Why? Because of limited spring numbers or position? 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Of course it is. It’s great for them.  

So it's not a showcase?

How can it even be a showcase this season when no one can see anything?