Grayson Rodriguez 2021

[NCRaven]

Per Baseball America's daily prospect report:

Grayson Rodriguez, Double-A Bowie (Orioles) — When it's Gray Day, everybody's celebrating. On Tuesday, Rodriguez, the top pitching prospect in the game, continued what has been a season of dominance. The 21-year-old fanned six over five one-run innings. Since moving to Bowie on June 2, Rodriguez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 13 starts. Moreover, of any pitcher with 50 or more innings this season, Rodriguez's swinging-strike rate of 19.8% ranks the highest.

[Sports Guy]

Where can you find minor league stats like swingstr%?

[NCRaven]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Where can you find minor league stats like swingstr%?

I got no idea.  I just posted from their report on Grayson's game yesterday.

[Gofannon]

20 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

No one is advocating for Grayson to go 100+ pitches, but they can't let him go up to 90 pitches when he is cruising during a game. 

I actually agree with everyone and guess I did a poor job of being sarcastic.  Grayson is probably throwing fewer pitches in a game now than he did in 7th grade.  One more inning would've been good to see.

[Can_of_corn]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I am not very concerned about it.  If it means he throws 20-30 innings less in 2022 than he would have if he’d been built up more this year, I don’t think that’s the end of the world.   In the long run, he’ll be what he’ll be.   As it is, he’s thrown the second-most innings of any pitcher in our MiL system and will probably end the year at 105 - 110 IP (or maybe 120 if he gets promoted to Norfolk and makes two extra starts).   

Rodriguez has thrown 81.1 IP.    I just did a quick tour of the AL East and none of their prospects have thrown more than 89 IP.   None of Tampa’s prospects have thrown as many innings as Rodriguez.    So, I don’t think the O’s are way out of the mainstream here.   They have been a little conservative, not just with Rodriguez, but everyone.   
 

Cool.

Are you on the board with low stress versus high stress innings? 

Has any starter in minor league baseball had less stressful innings than Rodriguez?

He doesn't have high pitch count innings, as a rule.  He doesn't pitch with guys on.  If anyone should be able to handle a larger workload without being put into a situation in which he is under stress it's him.

[Can_of_corn]

10 hours ago, waroriole said:

During the year(s) that we wouldn’t be competitive right?

Frobby suggested 100 IP this year right?

Kick that up to 130 next year and 160 in 2023.

I would hope that in 2023 we would want to see more than 160 inning out of him.

I'd like him to be in a situation to break 190 innings (including playoffs) in 2024.

[waroriole]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Frobby suggested 100 IP this year right?

Kick that up to 130 next year and 160 in 2023.

I would hope that in 2023 we would want to see more than 160 inning out of him.

I'd like him to be in a situation to break 190 innings (including playoffs) in 2024.

I don’t see why it couldn’t be 140, 180. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see why it couldn’t be 140, 180. 

I'm going with the cutoff from the since debunked Verducci effect. 

If Elias has been this conservative so far I think using that guideline seems reasonable going forward.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going with the cutoff from the since debunked Verducci effect. 

If Elias has been this conservative so far I think using that guideline seems reasonable going forward.

It’s 100 if he doesn’t go to Norfolk. 110 if he does. 
 

As Frobby showed, everyone is conservative this year. I just don’t know what you expect him to get this year. His previous high was 94. He got no official innings last year. 110, 150, 180 isn’t unrealistic 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s 100 if he doesn’t go to Norfolk. 110 if he does. 
 

As Frobby showed, everyone is conservative this year. I just don’t know what you expect him to get this year. His previous high was 94. He got no official innings last year. 110, 150, 180 isn’t unrealistic 

What I expect him to get to would depend on how he does.

If he's cruising in a start and has a bunch of low stress innings, like he was the other night, I'd like to see him out there for another inning.  I don't think going out there with a hard goal/limit is the smart way to go about things.  I don't want him pitching a bunch of high stress innings so he hits 100 but I don't want him getting hit with a hard cap when he isn't really being challenged.

I still think a 30 inning increase if more likely than a 40.  Like I said, the Verducci effect kinda set that as the acceptable baseline.

[waroriole]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I expect him to get to would depend on how he does.

If he's cruising in a start and has a bunch of low stress innings, like he was the other night, I'd like to see him out there for another inning.  I don't think going out there with a hard goal/limit is the smart way to go about things.  I don't want him pitching a bunch of high stress innings so he hits 100 but I don't want him getting hit with a hard cap when he isn't really being challenged.

I still think a 30 inning increase if more likely than a 40.  Like I said, the Verducci effect kinda set that as the acceptable baseline.

If you follow the 30 inning rule, he shouldn’t be at more than 124 this year. But he threw 0 official innings last year, so how high can you really go with him?

Also, there are 20 six game series for Bowie this year. If he only throws one 5 inning game per week, that is 100. If you’re planning out his season in April, there’s not a lot of room to squeeze in more than 5 innings per start. Seems reasonable that would be their hard and fast rule this year for him. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If you follow the 30 inning rule, he shouldn’t be at more than 124 this year. But he threw 0 official innings last year, so how high can you really go with him?

Also, there are 20 six game series for Bowie this year. If he only throws one 5 inning game per week, that is 100. If you’re planning out his season in April, there’s not a lot of room to squeeze in more than 5 innings per start. Seems reasonable that would be their hard and fast rule this year for him. 

As I said, I'm not a fan of hard caps, I think it should be more fluid depending on the stress of the innings thrown.

Setting some sort of target area...sure.  But you should be flexible in both directions depending on how the actual innings play out.

[NCRaven]

He pitched zero innings in 2020.

The O’s let him pitch 100 or so in 2021.

So, I expect 200 in 2022.  In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they let him go 140 next year.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Frobby suggested 100 IP this year right?

Kick that up to 130 next year and 160 in 2023.

I would hope that in 2023 we would want to see more than 160 inning out of him.

I'd like him to be in a situation to break 190 innings (including playoffs) in 2024.

I think I said 105-110, maybe 120 if they promote him to Norfolk, which plays an extra two weeks.   

[OriolesMagic83]

So with the 30 inning rule, if a guy has Tommy John surgery, it should take him 5 or 6 years to get back to full starter load.