What are the odds we end up getting Tex?

[Frobby]

Opinions vary widely here, I just want to see what most posters think.

Personally I think it is a longshot.

[glenn__davis]

I'd say about 20%. Not quite a longshot, but I'd still be pretty surprised if we got him.

[Skeletor]

I think it's slim to none. I can't see him coming here, but I'd be almost as happy with Dunn and I can see him coming here.

[ChaosLex]

I'm going 75%. I'm not a 150% sure like JTrea81.

[Dr. FLK]

Why would he sign here? We aren't good. We won't be good in the near future. We can't offer him a trip to the playoffs. I know, I know...he's from Baltimore. Lucky for him, he makes enough money to have a house here and come visit whenever he wants. I think that the "local factor" is a pipe dream created by hopeless optimism.

Guess which way I voted...

[ChaosLex]

Honestly, I'll be happy just to have the Teixeira saga over with. I mean, I'm still going to b@tch and moan for a couple of days if he doesn't sign here, but I'll be okay in the end.

[Black & Orange]

He filed at first chance yesterday. I believe MacPhail and Angelos are going to try everything in their books to get him. I also think Tex will sway based on the prior moves he sees us make. I honestly feel we are getting him, though.

[glenn__davis]

Why would he sign here? We aren't good. We won't be good in the near future. We can't offer him a trip to the playoffs. I know, I know...he's from Baltimore. Lucky for him, he makes enough money to have a house here and come visit whenever he wants. I think that the "local factor" is a pipe dream created by hopeless optimism.

Guess which way I voted...

I agree that the "local factor" angle is overplayed, but I also think that the "losing factor" angle is overplayed. If the money is right, I'm sure Tex could easily be sold on the idea coming to Baltimore and helping turn them into a contender again.

I still think it's more likely that he goes elsewhere, but I don't believe he's going to immediately dismiss us just because of the last 11 years.

[Dr. FLK]

Honestly, I'll be happy just to have the Teixeira saga over with. I mean, I'm still going to b@tch and moan for a couple of days if he doesn't sign here, but I'll be okay in the end.

The day he signs elsewhere is the day an "Odds Tex Signs in Charm City After his 7/120 deal Expires in 2016 To Retire in Hometown" thread begins.

[Dr. FLK]

I agree that the "local factor" angle is overplayed, but I also think that the "losing factor" angle is overplayed. If the money is right, I'm sure Tex could easily be sold on the idea coming to Baltimore and helping turn them into a contender again.

I still think it's more likely that he goes elsewhere, but I don't believe he's going to immediately dismiss us just because of the last 11 years.

He's going to get money wherever he goes. If we way outbid everyone else, then I could see the losing angle not being a big factor. But, if he gets several comparable offers, I doubt he picks the one made by the worst team.

[nadecir]

The teams we pretty much know that will be in the "Tex sweepstakes" include the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Angels.

Those teams are contenders next season. while the Orioles are not likely to be contenders next season. The size of the markets in New York, Los Angeles and Boston are much bigger than here, leading to bigger endorsement opportunities for Tex. I think these pretty much wipe out any hometown advantage that the Orioles would seem to have for Tex. If the hometown thing was a big deal for Tex anyway, he'd live here in the offseason, which he doesn't do.

The Yankees, Red Sox and the Angels all have considerable more revenue than the Orioles. I've never bought into the supposition that Angelos is going to dip into his own pockets to loan the Orioles money to signficantly increase payroll. That's problematic from many perspectives, and Angelos himself has stated that ultimately team revenues (and specifically attendance) is what determines what the team spends on payroll. The Orioles are considerably behind the other large market teams in these areas.

In addition to sizable revenue advantages, the Yankees have freed up at least $60 million in payroll over last season. The Red Sox and Angels have also freed up a considerable amount of payroll over last season.

Optimistically, I'd give the Orioles a 10% chance of signing Teixeira. If the bidding does fizzle at $140 million in contract value for Tex, then the Orioles have a chance. If it goes higher, then the Orioles don't have a chance.

There is little doubt it the Yankees really want him, they have the financial resources to be the highest bidder for him.

[Sports Guy]

I have no doubt that he wants to be here and that we can sign him(ie we have the money to do so).

What I am not sure about is will AM do put the right deal on the table.

Ultimately, I still expect him to be an Oriole.

[glenn__davis]

He's going to get money wherever he goes. If we way outbid everyone else, then I could see the losing angle not being a big factor. But, if he gets several comparable offers, I doubt he picks the one made by the worst team.

Well we'll just have to agree to disagree. Really, it depends on what he wants. If he goes somewhere like NY or Boston, sure, he'd have a better chance of winning next season, but he'd just be another cog in the machine. If he comes here, he's the big fish in the small pond that can help pull the franchise out of obscurity. The fact that he'd be the hometown boy would just be icing on the cake.

Again, I don't really know what he's thinking about any of this. I just think that saying "He's not coming here because we stink" is pretty small-picture thinking.

[JTrea81]

I've never bought into the supposition that Angelos is going to dip into his own pockets to loan the Orioles money to signficantly increase payroll. That's problematic from many perspectives, and Angelos himself has stated that ultimately team revenues (and specifically attendance) is what determines what the team spends on payroll. The Orioles are considerably behind the other large market teams in these areas.

.

"Peter has been pretty aggressive I think in the past in free agency. And he's been pretty aggressive about the investments he made in 2008. I just asked him to put them in the infrastructure of the franchise as opposed to free agents," MacPhail said.

"I think we have to look on a selective basis what might make sense for you, where you might have unique opportunities available to you in free agency. I've never gotten the sense from Peter that he was reluctant to delve in. It's our job to make sure when we make those investments that they are as efficient as can be."

http://masnsports.com/2008/10/are-os-prepared-to-spend-big-i.html

"Payroll is a function of ownership," he said, "And I must say that [managing partner Peter Angelos] has never been shy about investing in the team. It's my job to make sure that those investments are made as efficiently and as intelligently as possible."

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081002&content_id=3583514&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal

[NewMarketSean]

I put 10-25%. I do think that Angelos covets him and AM wouldn't mind spending the money on him, but in the end he'll cost too much.