FCL happenings

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

But we already knew that before he had a single AB. That's my only point.

He's here essentially for orientation. These silly small sample size conclusions are meaningless.

I could see the value add if the league was local in relation to the other Oriole minor league teams. 

I don't see the logic in sending him down to Florida for a couple weeks so he can watch it rain. 

Just seems to me that the additional stress of going to Florida and getting situated for such a short span of time isn't worth it.

 

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I could see the value add if the league was local in relation to the other Oriole minor league teams. 

I don't see the logic in sending him down to Florida for a couple weeks so he can watch it rain. 

Just seems to me that the additional stress of going to Florida and getting situated for such a short span of time isn't worth it.

 

Ever try walking on the sunny side of the street?

Someone is taking nitpicking to a new extreme.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ever try walking on the sunny side of the street?

Someone is taking nitpicking to a new extreme.

I don't think the FCL has much value for high end college bats (or arms for that matter).

While I don't think it's a big deal I don't think it's a value add for the player.

I said pretty much the same thing when it was Adley.  (so this isn't new)

I don't think flying to Florida and dealing with joining a team only to get shipped back to Maryland in a couple of weeks is worth it.  I think they would be better served starting at a more appropriate level and staying there.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the FCL has much value for high end college bats (or arms for that matter).

While I don't think it's a big deal I don't think it's a value add for the player.

I said pretty much the same thing when it was Adley.  (so this isn't new)

I don't think flying to Florida and dealing with joining a team only to get shipped back to Maryland in a couple of weeks is worth it.  I think they would be better served starting at a more appropriate level and staying there.

Some of these players haven't played competitive baseball in over a month or more.   Kind of like spring training.  It makes zero difference in their development whether they start in the FCL for two weeks or go to Delmarva right away.  Zero.  As in, who cares?   You do.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Some of these players haven't played competitive baseball in over a month or more.   Kind of like spring training.  It makes zero difference in their development whether they start in the FCL for two weeks or go to Delmarva right away.  Zero.  As in, who cares?   You do.

You do actually read my posts right?  You don't just make stuff up?

You did see where I said "I don't think it's a big deal"? 

Why must you take what I say and pretend I say something different?

What do you get out of it?

I agree that it doesn't make any difference in their development.  Just that being the case, I'd rather the player not be subjected to another move.  I think that continuity has more value than them easing into playing.

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree that it doesn't make any difference in their development.  Just that being the case, I'd rather the player not be subjected to another move.  I think that continuity has more value than them easing into playing.

My assumption, and this is purely an assumption, is that there is some form of orientation they do for the players that takes a couple of weeks.   Things like learning about how the pitchers/hitters use technology, what cutoff plays the team uses, what various expectations are, etc.   And that stuff is probably best done in a group setting with all the newbies in Sarasota, plus they get to know their draft classmates, etc.   And it’s harder to do that stuff in Delmarva where the team is traveling for a week at a time, the coaches have other things to do than spend a ton of time with the newbies in the middle of a season, etc.  All this is pure supposition on my part, but it makes sense to me.   

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do actually read my posts right?  You don't just make stuff up?

You did see where I said "I don't think it's a big deal"? 

Why must you take what I say and pretend I say something different?

What do you get out of it?

I agree that it doesn't make any difference in their development.  Just that being the case, I'd rather the player not be subjected to another move.  I think that continuity has more value than them easing into playing.

It makes zero difference one way or the other yet you insist on offering the opinion that you'd prefer they did it your way.  I didn't put words in your mouth or claim that you said it was a big deal. I just find it amusing that you need to be critical of the most minute things.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It makes zero difference one way or the other yet you insist on offering the opinion that you'd prefer they did it your way.  I didn't put words in your mouth or claim that you said it was a big deal. I just find it amusing that you need to be critical of the most minute things.

Like you need to be critical of my opinions?

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

My assumption, and this is purely an assumption, is that there is some form of orientation they do for the players that takes a couple of weeks.   Things like learning about how the pitchers/hitters use technology, what cutoff plays the team uses, what various expectations are, etc.   And that stuff is probably best done in a group setting with all the newbies in Sarasota, plus they get to know their draft classmates, etc.   And it’s harder to do that stuff in Delmarva where the team is traveling for a week at a time, the coaches have other things to do than spend a ton of time with the newbies in the middle of a season, etc.  All this is pure supposition on my part, but it makes sense to me.   

It's also in Sarasota, so the facilities are probably better for this context than a Delmarva, etc.

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d venture to say that a .737 OBP over five games doesn’t happen very often at all.   I agree five games isn’t too meaningful (especially since we’re talking about the FCL here), but in terms of pure statistical rarity, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many instances of this at any level.   

Edit- as best I can tell, the year that Ted Williams hit .400, he had one five-game streak where he topped .737 OBP.  Joe DiMaggio never did it during his 56-game hitting streak.   
 

If my math is correct, using a binomial probability function:

A true talent .400 OBP batter would have a 0.3% chance of OBP'ing .737 or better in any 19 PA sample.

In Excel, the =BINOM.DIST() function can be used to calculate the cumulative property of Number_s successful trials ocurring.

Over the 19 PAs (I think that's correct) at the time Cowser was OBP'ing .737, he successfully reached 14 times. I took the inverse of 0.400 and 14 (against 19) to get 0.600 and 5 successful trials. This is to demonstrate the cumulative probability of him OBP'ing .737 or better (as Number_s is the max number of times trial is successful, you would want to capture failing to reach only once, twice, etc., rather than the other way around).

So you end up with this...

=BINOM.DIST(5,19,0.6,TRUE)

= 0.003068

You could also do:

=1 - (BINOM.DIST(13,19,0.4,TRUE)

 

Quote

 

The BINOM.DIST function syntax has the following arguments:

Number_s     Required. The number of successes in trials.

Trials     Required. The number of independent trials.

Probability_s     Required. The probability of success on each trial.

Cumulative     Required. A logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is TRUE, then BINOM.DIST returns the cumulative distribution function, which is the probability that there are at most number_s successes; if FALSE, it returns the probability mass function, which is the probability that there are number_s successes.

 

 

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Like you need to be critical of my opinions?

Sometimes.  

[Sports Guy]

The Pirates promoted Davis from the FCL to high A ball. 
 

Really, if Cowser is as advanced as they say, I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t go to Aberdeen.

[Aglets]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Pirates promoted Davis from the FCL to high A ball. 
 

Really, if Cowser is as advanced as they say, I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t go to Aberdeen.

Are there any premium O's prospects that you believe are at the appropriate level?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Are there any premium O's prospects that you believe are at the appropriate level?

Sure but I guess it also depends on you define premium prospect.  I don’t think we have many of those.

[RZNJ]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Pirates promoted Davis from the FCL to high A ball. 
 

Really, if Cowser is as advanced as they say, I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t go to Aberdeen.

 

It would make sense but I guess we'll see.   Aberdeen is probably the appropriate level for him and we'll have a glut of outfielders at Delmarva with some of the current guys  plus Rhodes, Williams, and Trimble.   You've also got Trendon Craig and Billy Cook.    

If it were up to me, I think I'd push Sparks to Aberdeen, send Cowser there, install Rhodes, Williams, and Trimble as the starting OF at Delmarva with Cook and Craig rotating in and using the DH spot as well.    Otherwise, I don't see how you get appropriate playing time for all of these guys.

 

Haskin looks like the only real prospect up at Aberdeen at this time, unless I'm missing something.   So there's plenty of room at Aberdeen for at least 2 guys and a logjam at Delmarva although Janvrin, Cespedes, Kehe, and Lewis (maybe even Sparks) are candidates to be released or moved up to be extra outfielders (like Harris, Kehe, and Lewis are being used now).