Ask me about a prospect. (Early July)

[jamalshw]

On 7/12/2021 at 9:27 AM, Ruzious said:

It's a normal part of the process.  Batters get better too.  I'm not implying this is anything easy, but it's not like this is an impossible hurdle or anything even close to it.     

He's always going to be a high strikeout guy. Getting past that (I think) is an impossible hurdle, but I agree with you that getting to a point where the Ks are really high, but at least reasonable enough that he's still effective is not impossible. I do, however, get skeptical on many of these types. There are some great tools there, but a big red flag. 

[Ruzious]

9 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

He's always going to be a high strikeout guy. Getting past that (I think) is an impossible hurdle, but I agree with you that getting to a point where the Ks are really high, but at least reasonable enough that he's still effective is not impossible. I do, however, get skeptical on many of these types. There are some great tools there, but a big red flag. 

Very well said.  .956 OPS at Bowie, but he struck out 2 more times last night.  It's definitely a concern.  I remember the White Sox back in the day had a SS prospect named Brandon Wood - put up great numbers in the minors except that he'd strike out a ton, and he never did have success in the majors.  Stowers is striking out this year at a higher rate than Wood used to.  A player like that now is Travis Demeritte - has an all or nothing approach at the plate that works in the minors but not in the majors.    

[BirdinBama]

Tony, what's your thinking now about Adam Hall?

[Tony-OH]

On 7/11/2021 at 11:36 PM, Philip said:

I looked for a Watkins thread but didn’t find one. He’s got about 11 innings so far and looks like a plugger. Nothing special but gets results. How does he look to you? Can he continue?

He's been living off his cutter for the most part but he's got decent WHIF% on his curveball. His well below average fastball will make it tough for him to have continued success, but he's a nice little story. 

Do I think he's here for the long-term, I do not, but he's earned more starts in this rotation.

[interloper]

Is Diaz losing his prospect status before our very eyes?

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, seak05 said:

Do you have any concerns on how often Adley “barrels” the ball? He rarely swings and misses, but it sometimes seems as if he makes a lot of soft contact.

I haven't noticed a ton of soft contact actually. He dos just  miss on some pitches and flies out pretty deep, and he can roll over occasionally for a weak 4-3, but overall I think he's made good contact this year.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

From a few days of really looking at one versus ages at the other, how would you rate Cowser's chance to approach a Markakis level of production?

Markakis could be a decent comp for Cowser's ceiling unless he decides to try and hit for more power at the expense of average. Markakis made the Orioles a a 2--year old so Cowser would definitely need to produce at a high level once he signs to have that consideration. The way Elias does things, it's doubtful he'll have the opportunity regardless, but it's not out of question he could make the team in 2023. 

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, BirdinBama said:

Tony, what's your thinking now about Adam Hall?

He's been hitting better of late but I'm still not sure what he is at the major league level outside of a utility guy. I don't think he'll ever have enough pop or hit for a high enough average against upper level pitching to warrant an everyday spot. The strikeout rate for a guy with very limited power is a big concern. Defensively he's best at 2B, but can be shaky there at times as well. 

I just see a tweener guy who can be overmatched by good pitching.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Is Diaz losing his prospect status before our very eyes?

It's hard to find too much to like about Diaz overall. He can't stay on the field and when he's on the field, he looks like a guy who is always rusty. Is he rusty or just not very good? 

If you recall, Diaz has been a guy I haven't been very high on after I saw him after the trade. I just didn't see the upside, although I did see the raw power at times. I really want to see him have a whole healthy season before fully evaluating him but he's certainly lost what little shine he had. 

 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's hard to find too much to like about Diaz overall. He can't stay on the field and when he's on the field, he looks like a guy who is always rusty. Is he rusty or just not very good? 

If you recall, Diaz has been a guy I haven't been very high on after I saw him after the trade. I just didn't see the upside, although I did see the raw power at times. I really want to see him have a whole healthy season before fully evaluating him but he's certainly lost what little shine he had. 

 

Thanks. I was reading a Camden Chat article about how the Machado trade is basically a complete disaster. Diaz and Bannon (.585) aren't hitting, Kremer has taken an enormous step backward this year, and Pop is gone but even he has an ERA approaching 6. Not great! It's really up to Kremer to salvage that trade, basically. The fact that of all the guys in the Machado and Britton trades, we are only getting value out of Dillon Tate... yikes...

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Thanks. I was reading a Camden Chat article about how the Machado trade is basically a complete disaster. Diaz and Bannon (.585) aren't hitting, Kremer has taken an enormous step backward this year, and Pop is gone but even he has an ERA approaching 6. Not great! It's really up to Kremer to salvage that trade, basically. The fact that of all the guys in the Machado and Britton trades, we are only getting value out of Dillon Tate... yikes...

The writing on the wall is not complete, but yes, it does not look like we even got one impact players back in that deal. Then again, it was a two and half month rental and those costs have come way down the last five years of so for the most part.

Either way, it's hard to argue that the deal has not worked out well for the Orioles so far. 

I'm not ready to give up on Kremer just yet though a move to the bullpen may be in his future to see if he can find more consistently there.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

From a few days of really looking at one versus ages at the other, how would you rate Cowser's chance to approach a Markakis level of production?

It’s a very good comp IMO.  We can only hope Cowser is as good.  They’re similar in terms of having a good hit tool and maybe questionable power.  

[LTO's]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Very well said.  .956 OPS at Bowie, but he struck out 2 more times last night.  It's definitely a concern.  I remember the White Sox back in the day had a SS prospect named Brandon Wood - put up great numbers in the minors except that he'd strike out a ton, and he never did have success in the majors.  Stowers is striking out this year at a higher rate than Wood used to.  A player like that now is Travis Demeritte - has an all or nothing approach at the plate that works in the minors but not in the majors.    

Stowers is interesting. His K% is around 30 this year which is a steep increase from 2019. However, his average, OPS and OBP are way up comparatively. Everybody is striking out way more nowadays and some of the best hitters on the planet have a K% at or above 30. It will be an interesting profile to watch but I like the power, on base and defensive value.

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a very good comp IMO.  We can only hope Cowser is as good.  They’re similar in terms of having a good hit tool and maybe questionable power.  

Yeah. Cowser should have better range in the OF but won't have the cannon that Markakis had, particularly earlier in his career.

[UMDTerrapins]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It's hard to find too much to like about Diaz overall. He can't stay on the field and when he's on the field, he looks like a guy who is always rusty. Is he rusty or just not very good? 

If you recall, Diaz has been a guy I haven't been very high on after I saw him after the trade. I just didn't see the upside, although I did see the raw power at times. I really want to see him have a whole healthy season before fully evaluating him but he's certainly lost what little shine he had. 

 

Hope he can put himself back on the map. The thing that's always been on my mind with him is that the Dodgers were willing to part with him in a package with three other pretty decent prospects for just a half season rental of Machado. They originally spent $15.5 million to sign him. Hard to imagine the Dodgers were really enamored with him if they were willing to walk away from such a large investment for so little in return. Not to mention Kremer, Pop, Bannon, Valera as well.