(Edit: Orioles get 1st pick after walkoff homer by Diamondbacks)

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aglets said:

This whole thing you and SG keep arguing about how this "isn't the only way to rebuild" seems like a total red herring and a strawman to me.  I have never said and will never say that there is NO OTHER way to build a winning team.     

What I have said is that this is a way.  And we have seen it work.  Our current GM has seen it work up close.    When my team becomes a perpetual winner I am not going to lose a lot of sleep over "oh I'm glad that we are going on all these deep playoff runs but did they really HAVE to do the rebuild this way?"    Will you?

Except the Astros didn’t win because they tanked/rebuilt.  That’s what you aren’t getting.

Tanking/rebuilding helped bring them a few players that were uniquely available because of tanking.  Otherwise, the rest of the players would have been available either way.

They built their WS team on the draft, Intl FA, trades and some FA signings.  That’s how all championship teams are built.  Correa and, arguably Bregman and McCullers were the only players uniquely available because of tanking.  Those guys were obviously very important to them winning but you obviously need more players than that.

[Aglets]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except the Astros didn’t win because they tanked/rebuilt.  That’s what you aren’t getting.

Tanking/rebuilding helped bring them a few players that were uniquely available because of tanking.  Otherwise, the rest of the players would have been available either way.

They built their WS team on the draft, Intl FA, trades and some FA signings.  That’s how all championship teams are built.  Correa and, arguably Bregman and McCullers were the only players uniquely available because of tanking.  Those guys were obviously very important to them winning but you obviously need more players than that.

I read your big post on the other thread.  I am not persuaded by your argument.  I think it makes the very case you were trying to disprove to a degree.  I get what you are trying to say.......and I disagree with it.

Your 3rd sentence and your first sentence are in conflict with each other as I see it.

I also believe that tanking will help the Orioles bring in some players that will be uniquely available because of tanking.

[Aglets]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that since that was the type of rebuild he was familiar with it was the kind he could sell to ownership.

That's what he knows.  He's a draft guy, he's going to go towards his strengths.

I think deeply cutting payroll was very attractive to ownership.

Unless you say otherwise I am going to assume your answer here is "he was sincere."   Ok, cool.   We agree.   Then I think your previous post is pretty intellectually dishonest about trying to trick the media etc.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I read your big post on the other thread.  I am not persuaded by your argument.  I think it makes the very case you were trying to disprove to a degree.  I get what you are trying to say.......and I disagree with it.

Your 3rd sentence and your first sentence are in conflict with each other as I see it.

I also believe that tanking will help the Orioles bring in some players that will be uniquely available because of tanking.

Well if facts don’t open your eyes, not sure what will.  Seems to me that you are the one not accepting of the conversation and others opinions.  
 

Im waiting for the true evidence that tanking and rebuilding led them to winning.

[Aglets]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well if facts don’t open your eyes, not sure what will.  Seems to me that you are the one not accepting of the conversation and others opinions.  
 

Im waiting for the true evidence that tanking and rebuilding led them to winning.

The evidence I just cited was provided by a poster named Sports Guy and i even underlined where to look for the relevant parts.  Hopefully you find him to be a credible source.  That whole post I quoted provides some good info.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Unless you say otherwise I am going to assume your answer here is "he was sincere."   Ok, cool.   We agree.   Then I think your previous post is pretty intellectually dishonest about trying to trick the media etc.

I didn't say trick the media, I said get the media on board.

It helps when your team owns a group that a lot of the fans consider part of the media.

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't say trick the media, I said get the media on board.

It helps when your team owns a group that a lot of the fans consider part of the media.

I think it was heavily implied that you were calling into question the motivations of the powers that be.   Obviously we are going to agree largely about the relationship between the Orioles and MASN.  That is fair.   We should be critical of guys that only view the O's with rose-colored glasses and I think plenty of people on here do that, myself included.   Not every MASN employee is a blind homer, but many are, that is all fair to point out.

[Can_of_corn]

44 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I think it was heavily implied that you were calling into question the motivations of the powers that be.   Obviously we are going to agree largely about the relationship between the Orioles and MASN.  That is fair.   We should be critical of guys that only view the O's with rose-colored glasses and I think plenty of people on here do that, myself included.   Not every MASN employee is a blind homer, but many are, that is all fair to point out.

That wasn't my intent but if you read that into it so be it.

I think every team tries to get the local media on their side, that doesn't mean they are "tricking" the media.

[osfan83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  I just don’t get why fans buy into it.  

Not sure fans have bought into it....have you seen attendance figures? 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, osfan83 said:

Not sure fans have bought into it....have you seen attendance figures? 

Buying into it doesn’t have to happen at the gates.  Just reading social media and stuff like that.  Hell, this site.  Most of everyone on here has bought into this bs hook, line and sinker.

People may not want to pay to go see the current on field product but many feel this is the right way to go and it is..up until you get the ML team.  That is a miserable failure and it doesn’t have to be and shouldn’t be going forward.

[osfan83]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Buying into it doesn’t have to happen at the gates.  Just reading social media and stuff like that.  Hell, this site.  Most of everyone on here has bought into this bs hook, line and sinker.

People may not want to pay to go see the current on field product but many feel this is the right way to go and it is..up until you get the ML team.  That is a miserable failure and it doesn’t have to be and shouldn’t be going forward.

I would argue that fans not going to games, not watching them on TV and not buying team merchandise is a consequence of not being competitive. These things hurt ownership. So even if fans say they understand, and are supportive of the tanking, that doesn't result in helping the team. Even a payroll of $20m will eventually run the team into the red if virtually nobody goes to the games or are watching on TV.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I would argue that fans not going to games, not watching them on TV and not buying team merchandise is a consequence of not being competitive. These things hurt ownership. So even if fans say they understand, and are supportive of the tanking, that doesn't result in helping the team. Even a payroll of $20m will eventually run the team into the red if virtually nobody goes to the games or are watching on TV.

Quote

In Major League Baseball, 48% of local revenues are subject to revenue sharing and are distributed equally among all 30 teams, with each team receiving 3.3% of the total sum generated. As a result, in 2018, each team received $118 million from this pot. Teams also receive a share of national revenues, which were estimated to be $91 million per team, also in 2018.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Revenue_sharing

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Revenue_sharing

And everyone who has cable is paying for MASN.  That is money going to the Os.  

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well if facts don’t open your eyes, not sure what will.  Seems to me that you are the one not accepting of the conversation and others opinions.  
 

Im waiting for the true evidence that tanking and rebuilding led them to winning.

The least compelling part of your arguments on this topic is that you are incapable of providing a better alternative to what Elias and co. have done so far even with the benefit of hindsight. The FAs that you have suggested the Os sign in previous offseasons were mainly unrealistic or they were unlikely to meaningfully improve the on field product in such a way that the investment would be worth it from a value perspective. The idea of trading prospects for established big leaguers that you have floated is also just not smart.  I don't buy that signing one or two more mid to low tier FAs would have any impact on attendance/general excitement for the big league club or make them significantly more competitive. That being the case, I'm not sure what incentive ownership would have to make those investments at this juncture. So national writers make fun of them half the time? So they lose 105 instead of 110?  Like the Astros did, the Os will wait to make those investments when the team is good. It's clear that some people do not believe this will happen but I actually do. Elias has pretty much only promised three things: the talent pipleline will become elite (it has), ownership will invest in the international market (they absolutely have) and that when the talent rises at the big league level they will supplement the roster with FAs. If they don't make good on that last promise then I will eat crow but they haven't lied yet. Hand wringing about the principle of tanking is not persuasive to me. In the position the Orioles were in after the 2018 season, this was the only way that made any sense. The only issue is that it didn't happen sooner. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The least compelling part of your arguments on this topic is that you are incapable of providing a better alternative to what Elias and co. have done so far even with the benefit of hindsight. The FAs that you have suggested the Os sign in previous offseasons were mainly unrealistic or they were unlikely to meaningfully improve the on field product in such a way that the investment would be worth it from a value perspective. The idea of trading prospects for established big leaguers that you have floated is also just not smart.  I don't buy that signing one or two more mid to low tier FAs would have any impact on attendance/general excitement for the big league club or make them significantly more competitive. That being the case, I'm not sure what incentive ownership would have to make those investments at this juncture. So national writers make fun of them half the time? So they lose 105 instead of 110?  Like the Astros did, the Os will wait to make those investments when the team is good. It's clear that some people do not believe this will happen but I actually do. Elias has pretty much only promised three things: the talent pipleline will become elite (it has), ownership will invest in the international market (they absolutely have) and that when the talent rises at the big league level they will supplement the roster with FAs. If they don't make good on that last promise then I will eat crow but they haven't lied yet. Hand wringing about the principle of tanking is not persuasive to me. In the position the Orioles were in after the 2018 season, this was the only way that made any sense. The only issue is that it didn't happen sooner. 

First of all, you not liking my arguments means nothing to me.

Secondly, I haven’t laid out what else I would have done because there are literally several different players and ways to go.

My argument is the exact same as it always has been.  That then tanking for the first year or 2 was fine and I’m good with that.  But that tanking doesn’t guarantee anything long term and, at this point, they should be doing more for the on field product.  Yes, I think there is value (at this point in the rebuild) to having a 75ish win team vs a 50ish win team.  2019 and 2020?  Didnt care as much about that but now I do.  And, to be honest, I can sort of be ok with 2021 not being a 75ish win team because of covid and lost development.  The problem I have with the ML team is the poor development at the Ml level.  That’s an issue.  I have said that this offseason is the true barometer for Elias.  
 

The larger discussion is what tanking and rebuilding does for the team And how much it means to winning long term.  The Cubs and Astros are not examples that tanking and rebuilding works imo.  They are examples of drafting and developing well and making smart trades and FA signings and, as is always needed in all sports, they got lucky.  You don’t need to lose intentionally for several years to accomplish those things.  Many MLB teams are able to do both.  I don’t see why it’s asking for too much for the Os to be doing both too.