19 Game Streak Post-Mortem

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The Astros went and traded for expensive veterans in Verlander and Greinke, but there's no guarantee that quality of pitcher will be available for the Orioles. Plus will ownership be willing to spend the money necessary to even be in the conversation to acquire that caliber of pitcher, or even a pitcher a step down from the Verlander/Greinke level. 

And it's putting a lot more pressure on Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall to make it as starting pitchers. For the Orioles to be playoff contenders in two to three years, it's looking like a requirement for them to produce as Orioles. 

Those guys also tend to have no trade protection.  How willing would they be to come to Baltimore? 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Those guys also tend to have no trade protection.  How willing would they be to come to Baltimore? 

Another good point, but if the Orioles are a team on the rise that should be less of an issue, but I'm not going to make any predictions there.

I still see $$$$ being the biggest blocker. 

[forphase1]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, there is likely more revenue generated and more interest in the team.

Secondly, a 75 win team is very likely to be much closer to contention to a 45 win team.

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  
 

We just went through a 19 game listing streak, are playing at a historically bad level and could pick 4th in the next draft.  
 

Just stop with the could have picked 10th and gotten the same guys nonsense.   We spent almost all of our allotment.  If we'd have picked 10th instead,  we simply would not have had the money to sign the exact same draft class,  even if we drafted them.   I know you are constantly beating the underslot drum and not possibly picking the BPA stuff, but it's a complete lie to claim we could have the exact same class while drafting from position 10 versus 2.  

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Just stop with the could have picked 10th and gotten the same guys nonsense.   We spent almost all of our allotment.  If we'd have picked 10th instead,  we simply would not have had the money to sign the exact same draft class,  even if we drafted them.   I know you are constantly beating the underslot drum and not possibly picking the BPA stuff, but it's a complete lie to claim we could have the exact same class while drafting from position 10 versus 2.  

There's also nothing to suggest that Cowser was some kind of "under-slot."

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

There's also nothing to suggest that Cowser was some kind of "under-slot."

There is the part where he signed for $1,280,700 under slot.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is the part where he signed for $1,280,700 under slot.

Pretty sure most guys sign for under slot.  Adley did and he was certainly the top prospect.

It is why I used quotes around "underslot."

I can rephrase it:

There's nothing to suggest that Cowser's talents are not commensurate with where he was selected.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Just stop with the could have picked 10th and gotten the same guys nonsense.   We spent almost all of our allotment.  If we'd have picked 10th instead,  we simply would not have had the money to sign the exact same draft class,  even if we drafted them.   I know you are constantly beating the underslot drum and not possibly picking the BPA stuff, but it's a complete lie to claim we could have the exact same class while drafting from position 10 versus 2.  

First of all, I’m not constantly beating the underslot drum.  That’s an awful representation of anything I have said.  It shows a complete lack of reading comprehension and it’s just a dumb thing to say in general.  I actually was very happy with Cowser as being the guy we took if Lawlar wasn’t the pick.  I would have taken Cowser over anyone else that was available.
 

Secondly, when I say we could have picked 10th and had a similar draft is because many of the players we draft could have been had at other points in the draft, including our first round pick.  We signed guys to their slot money at the time they were drafted outside of Willems.  A lot of guys they took in the rounds they did were rated lower.  And even if you don’t get the exact same players, you get guys very similar.  If 2020 was a real season and we won 75 games instead of 65 games and picked 5 spots later, I feel pretty confident we come away with a very similar draft and perhaps many of the same players, including Cowser.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Pretty sure most guys sign for under slot.  Adley did and he was certainly the top prospect.

It is why I used quotes around "underslot."

I can rephrase it:

There's nothing to suggest that Cowser's talents are not commensurate with where he was selected.

Depends on how much value you put in the rankings..no one said he was a top 5 player in the draft.

Seeing as you seem to value the rankings of our farm system by these publications, I would assume you value what they say about the draft picks too, right?  Are do You just pick and choose when you trust the publications?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Pretty sure most guys sign for under slot.  Adley did and he was certainly the top prospect.

It is why I used quotes around "underslot."

I can rephrase it:

There's nothing to suggest that Cowser's talents are not commensurate with where he was selected.

This draft top 10 was interesting.

#1 went under slot, as they almost all do.

One didn't sign.

After that is was a pretty good mix of over slot, near slot and 1M+ underslots.

[forphase1]

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  

That's exactly what you said.   Not that we could have a similar draft, but that we could get Cowser and the rest of the guys,  and that's not true as the money would not have been there.   If you think we could have gotten similar talent,  then I assume that means you think the guys we went overslot on weren't really worth overslot money, and we could have gotten equal talent at slot value.  Time will tell on that I suppose.  I know I'm not sold on them myself, though some of the early results has been encouraging for the guys we drafted.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

First of all, there is likely to be a higher payroll cost for the mediocre team so the increased game day revenue may be meaningless.  RSN fees are paid by everyone who has a cable service so that remains unchanged.  I agree that advertising revenues would not likely be optimized.

Secondly, I said that mediocrity is only good if it's a stepping stone to sustained excellence.  I already made that point which you conveniently ignored.

And, BTW, we had the #5 pick this year, not the #1.  When we had 1-1 we took Rutschman that acknowledged #1 amateur prospect.  The team that picked 1-1 used the very first pick to take an underslot player so that strategy is not peculiar to the Orioles and Elias.

Finally, if we end up with the 4th pick in the draft, then 3 teams had worse seasons than we did, so that would not be particularly historic.

I think it would be historic if a team as bad as the Orioles had three teams finish behind them in the standings. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Depends on how much value you put in the rankings..no one said he was a top 5 player in the draft.

Seeing as you seem to value the rankings of our farm system by these publications, I would assume you value what they say about the draft picks too, right?  Are do You just pick and choose when you trust the publications?

I'm not sure the reference to my feelings about farm system rankings means.  Did we have a conversation about that?

But yeah, I do pick and choose, and I use my judgement went citing a source.  

I stand by my statement regarding Crowser: There's nothing to suggest his was drafted in a slot not commensurate with his talent.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

This draft top 10 was interesting.

#1 went under slot, as they almost all do.

One didn't sign.

After that is was a pretty good mix of over slot, near slot and 1M+ underslots.

The thing about the MLB draft is you can't trade picks.

So if it was the NFL, I'd have ripped them for taking Kjerstad.  

But in MLB, they might legitimately think he's the second best player and the only way they're getting him is by drafting him there.

That would not have been a consensus opinion; however, it's completely feasible to me.

[Pickles]

Another thing to think about:

I know many of us are Ravens fans.  If you're a Ravens fan you take pride in their draft record, and it has been impressive.  What is a very common tactic of the Ravens?  (They do a bit of everything.  Again it is a much more flexible system.  And I'm talking about both the totality of the draft, and not just the first round, and relative to other organizations not just in general.) They trade down.

If going "underslot" is analogous to trading down, and is it not?- should it not be fairly common without a clear BPA staring you in the face?

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

And btw, there is a good chance if the Os picked 10th in this past draft and still get Cowser and the rest of the guys they drafted.  

That's exactly what you said.   Not that we could have a similar draft, but that we could get Cowser and the rest of the guys,  and that's not true as the money would not have been there.   If you think we could have gotten similar talent,  then I assume that means you think the guys we went overslot on weren't really worth overslot money, and we could have gotten equal talent at slot value.  Time will tell on that I suppose.  I know I'm not sold on them myself, though some of the early results has been encouraging for the guys we drafted.   

If a player is drafted 5-10 slots lower and they are a lot signings, they will sign for that a lot cost, so the money ends up equaling out.