Mullins Trade Scenarios

[OrangeTurtle]

Long time reader, first time poster.  I'll preface this by saying I'm not normally the type to throw out wild trade scenarios, and I love Mullins, so these deals are more in line with "selling high", but I'm bored, so here it goes:

#1: Mullins to MIA for Max Meyer, one of Luzardo/Cabrera + Khalil Watson

Why this makes sense for both squads:

There was a rumor that the Marlins offered Meyer as a 1 for 1 at the deadline for Brandon Marsh of the Angels and LAA balked. MIA is eager to compete in the weak NL East and want some bats to go with some of their established, elite, young pitching. Mullins is a cost controlled CF with range for the cavernous Marlins ballpark. 

The dirty secret on this board is that Mullins isn't that great of a defender by advanced metrics, but Jeter may not care considering he was never a vaunted "great defender" himself by the statisticians.

Pairing Meyer and SPx + GrayRod, Means, Baumann, Bradish, DL Hall, etc. gives Elias a core of SP prospects to work with (guards against natural attrition) in addition to the stud position players on the way. Since Mullins is a CF on pace for 5-6 fWAR, he's the guy that the Marlins need right now. For the Orioles, you play Hays in CF next year hoping he holds up, and then if Cowser is truly looked at as a CF option for Elias, you could conceivably see him in CF anyway come late 2023.

Mullins is great, but with his age, and the small sample size of this year, you're banking on his D getting worse + selling high right now for potential on the other side that aligns more with our timeline.

#2: Mullins to STL for DeJong, Gorman, Liberatore.

Why this makes sense for both squads:

First of all, DeJong absolutely should be a target for the Orioles to go after this year. He's signed to a cheap deal, plays great defense, and can be the JJ Hardy clone who could benefit from a change of scenery & provide 20-25 HR pop for the young pitchers.

As much as I'd like the Os to go after Correa/Story/Seager, I don't think they can convince one to come for what we'd have to pay at this stage in the rebuild. Gorman is blocked by Arenado and can start next year for the Os at 3B. Liberatore is another SP prospect on the GrayRod/Bradish/Baumann and to a lesser extent, DL Hall timeline.

There are whispers the Cards might go after one of the premier SS on the market this year to pair with Arenado/Goldy and their other guys, plus they will probably re-sign Waino another year and hope Flaherty returns to dominance. Their lineup is extremely RH heavy and Mullins immediately gives them another elite bat to go with their new presumptive SS and the aforementioned guys. They have Carlson and O'Neill dialed in for COF and then can use Bader as their OF sub keeping everyone fresh.

Like I mentioned, I love Mullins, but hes older than I'd like and there's always risk this year is a fluke. I like the idea of stacking the team for 2023 with tons of cheap players and then, if/when our minor league INF prospects begin to get ready to add, then we have pieces to trade for elite established players.

Sorry for the length, any thoughts? Which scenario is more appealing? DeJong, IMO, would be a GREAT target to go after if STL is serious about using new payroll flexibility for a FA SS. But adding Meyer to GrayRod is appealing as well.

[Frobby]

Very thoughtful first post.  Post more often!  I need to think about these more, but the idea of selling high on Mullins and acquiring pitchers or players at other positions of need besides OF makes some sense.   

[RZNJ]

I wish I knew other teams players and minor leaguers like I used to.   I don't know enough to really comment one way or the other.    You say that Mullins is older than you like.  He's 26!!!!!

[Aristotelian]

This is probably the best out of the  box trade proposal idea I have seen on the board this year. That said, Mullins is not even arb eligible until 2023. I don't think now is the time to trade him unless you really believe his value is going to tank. I wouldn't be signing him to a 12 year deal but I also wouldn't be trading him.

[Ruzious]

I love Watson, and Meyer's a top 50 prospect... sounds like a good start.  I don't know enough about Luzardo/Cabrera to comment.      

[Camden_yardbird]

Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration.  That said, that point is still a year away at least.  That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area.

30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often.   Even playoff teams struggle to find them.  If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value.

We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things are mutually exclusive.

[luismatos4prez]

I'd be very, very careful about trading a high character, great defensive CF who can steal 30 bags, hit 30 HRs, and hit .300. They aren't too many of those.

We're building toward a WS contender with the window opening in 2024 or so. Mullins will still be here then. 

 

[Sports Guy]

I’m skeptical teams would pay this much this offseason.  You are talking multiple top 50 prospects and a good young MLer at a low salary.  

[joelala]

As much as I love Cedric, I’d also be very open to trading him. Both of these  packages would be impossible for us to pass up on. I don’t think we’d get quite that much for Mullins until he proves this is closer to the new normal for him. If he’s doing this the first two months of next season then these packages become more realistic IMO. 

[Moose Milligan]

I think there are going to be a lot of GMs who would be wary to trade for Mullins this offseason, simply because of the fear that he could be a one year wonder.

If he's playing at this level next year or at a similar level, he's for real and I think there'd be more interest.  

That said, I don't see this franchise trading him.  

[yark14]

25 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I'd be very, very careful about trading a high character, great defensive CF who can steal 30 bags, hit 30 HRs, and hit .300. They aren't too many of those.

We're building toward a WS contender with the window opening in 2024 or so. Mullins will still be here then. 

 

Exactly.  Some people have the mindset of trading any player that has any sort of value.  That gets you into a cycle of continuously rebuilding and never loading the chamber.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Exactly.  Some people have the mindset of trading any player that has any sort of value.  That gets you into a cycle of continuously rebuilding and never loading the chamber.

Ideally you end up like the Rays and it's more reloading than rebuilding.

To me it's simple, if your data says this is more or less who he is now, you hold onto him.  If the data says this is an outlier season then you sell as high as you can.

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ideally you end up like the Rays and it's more reloading than rebuilding.

To me it's simple, if your data says this is more or less who he is now, you hold onto him.  If the data says this is an outlier season then you sell as high as you can.

Of course no one else has this data.  The Orioles have a double top secret data set that has them head and shoulders above all other ML teams and their evaluations.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Of course no one else has this data.  The Orioles have a double top secret data set that has them head and shoulders above all other ML teams and their evaluations.

That would be why I said as high as you can.

Hopefully the O's data is better than at least some teams.

[Just Regular]

I like MIA/STL as possible CF buyers, but I don't believe Mullins would approach those kinds of returns right now.

This spring I think we would have taken DeJong alone for Mullins with a smile, never mind the cartwheels and backflips we'd have done for any of those other six guys.   Mullins has increased his value by a lot, but for a non-blue chip I believe the league, as with Means, will want to see it more than once.

If STL really has money, might they try to woo Scherzer home?

Between Kim Ng and Mike Elias, there probably are loads of Hitting for Pitching frameworks to discuss as their two teams start improving and seek balance.