What’s your OPS and WAR/162 prediction for Rutschman next year?

[maybenxtyr]

I'd say his first year OPS will be .775-.800. His defense along with his bat should put him in the area of 3.5-4 on WAR. 

[NCRaven]

29 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think he’ll put up .280/.370/.450/.820 next year after getting called up in May. Not sure how that translates to WAR but I’d guess about 4. 

This is almost dead on what I was thinking.  Of course, I now think you're a genius!  .820 and 3.8 rWAR/162 is what I was thinking.

[SilverRocket]

.790 OPS with very strong dWAR for 4.0 overall WAR.

[Yossarian]

2.5 WAR/ .800 OPS

[Pickles]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games).   Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.

While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162.   We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays.   So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.   

I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.   
 

It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.

[Can_of_corn]

I think that the metrics are going to love his defense, specifically fWAR and that will drive his win total over 5 with an OPS of 823.

I think the Fangraphs framing metrics will cause a significant gap between his fWAR and rWAR.
 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.

On reflection, you are probably right.  

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It seems likely that if his OPS is that high, his WAR would be higher.

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

 

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adley Rutschman currently has a .936 OPS in AAA (38 games) following .901 in AA (80 games).   Let’s have your predictions for his OPS as a rookie next year.

While we’re at it, take a shot at rWAR/162.   We’ll do that based on what percentage of the 162 games Rutschman is on the O’s roster, not the number of games he plays.   So, if he was called up after 40 games and posted 3.0 rWAR the rest of the way, that would be 4.0 rWAR/162.   

I’ll go first: .817 OPS and 3.1 rWAR/162.   
 

The exercise if for rWAR/162.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably but it also depends on when he comes up, since WAR is largely a counting stat.

Thats the hidden part of this conversation.  When do the Os bring him up?  Is it all season?  Is it as soon as the extra year kicks in?  Is it into May?  Is it after super 2 (usually late May/early June)?  

Frobs kind of covered that by making it a rate, so it is WAR/162.

However, the conversation really probably becomes, how much does he catch?

If he catches 95% of his abs, and puts up that OPS, he'll be well above 3 WAR.

If he catches 60%, that's probably about right.

[Pickles]

I'll throw my predictions in here, though I haven't read everyone else's, so as not to just criticize others'.

I think he goes 775 OPS and 4 WAR/162.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, I think people thinking he’s not going to catch a lot are wrong.  There is no reason not to catch him a lot.  The best catchers catch a lot and do it from the time they enter the league.  Adley shouldn’t be any different.

 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, I think people thinking he’s not going to catch a lot are wrong.  There is no reason not to catch him a lot.  The best catchers catch a lot and do it from the time they enter the league.  Adley shouldn’t be any different.

 

I agree with this.

[Camden_yardbird]

Hard to be anything more than a 2-2.5 WAR rookie catcher when you aren't called up until May.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Hard to be anything more than a 2-2.5 WAR rookie catcher when you aren't called up until May.

Which is why it says, in the title, WAR/162.