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POLL: Who Do You Want As Your Closer in 2009?


Old#5fan

Who Should the Orioles 2009 Closer Be?  

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  1. 1. Who Should the Orioles 2009 Closer Be?



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Maybe I am asking to much but I want more out of a closer who when he is good is very good and bad very bad. I want someone reliable all the time with only a rare failure. Ray failed too many times in those 20 something innings for me to be happy with him.

I'm not sure if this is worth the effort, but...

Since Chris Ray became a closer in '06, he has 49 saves in 58 opportunities. That's an 84% conversion rate.

In George Sherrill's season as a closer, he had 31 saves in 37 opportunities. That's... an 84% conversion rate.

As closers, Ray and Sherrill have exactly the same save percentage. It's hard to say that he's any less reliable than Sherrill.

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I'm not sure if this is worth the effort, but...

Since Chris Ray became a closer in '06, he has 49 saves in 58 opportunities. That's an 84% conversion rate.

In George Sherrill's season as a closer, he had 31 saves in 37 opportunities. That's... an 84% conversion rate.

As closers, Ray and Sherrill have exactly the same save percentage. It's hard to say that he's any less reliable than Sherrill.

Okay, you have convinced me. If I could change my vote I would switch it to other. I don't want either one of them now, as I think 84% is pretty lousy. I would seriously consider trying Jim Johnson on the role. I think he could hit over 90% easily.

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Easy, I will gladly tell you. I don't like a player who starts out promising and then immediately regresses which is Ray. I want a guy who gets better each year. I would agree with you if he had looked as good in 2007 as he had in 2006 but I seriously believe that the 2007 Ray is the real Ray and 2006 was an abberation or lucky season for Ray. He really reminds me a bit of a right handed John Parrish who when he has command is great but when he doesn't is simply all over the place and you cannot have that sort of unreliability as a closer. In fact, Ray reminds me somewhat of Dennis Sarfate only a slightly milder version.

So why do you like Sherrill, who started out promising and regressed last year more than Ray who's career (barring age and injury differences) follows almost exactly the same "curve".

Setting the stats aside, I too watched Sherrill last year and what I saw was a guy who had early success in the Closer role by fooling people with an assortment of average pitches and who eventually stopped fooling people and got hammered on a regular basis in the latter part of the season. I had absolutely zero faith in him as a closer by season's end.

With Ray in 2007, I saw a young guy with superior stuff getting knocked around because he hadn't yet made the transition from "thrower" to "pitcher".

I think the likelihood that Ray improves (through experience and learning) is much higher than the likelihood that Sherrill improves (his stuff isn't getting any better and he's improved as much through Age / Experience as he's likely to).

The last half of 2008 really scares me with Sherrill. 4 blown saves and 2 losses in 13 save attempts and an ERA well over 6.00. That's as bad (or worse) than any similar period in Ray's short career.

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So why do you like Sherrill, who started out promising and regressed last year more than Ray who's career (barring age and injury differences) follows almost exactly the same "curve".

Setting the stats aside, I too watched Sherrill last year and what I saw was a guy who had early success in the Closer role by fooling people with an assortment of average pitches and who eventually stopped fooling people and got hammered on a regular basis in the latter part of the season. I had absolutely zero faith in him as a closer by season's end.

With Ray in 2007, I saw a young guy with superior stuff getting knocked around because he hadn't yet made the transition from "thrower" to "pitcher".

I think the likelihood that Ray improves (through experience and learning) is much higher than the likelihood that Sherrill improves (his stuff isn't getting any better and he's improved as much through Age / Experience as he's likely to).

The last half of 2008 really scares me with Sherrill. 4 blown saves and 2 losses in 13 save attempts and an ERA well over 6.00. That's as bad (or worse) than any similar period in Ray's short career.

Yeah, the last half scares me too, but it could be a result of the entire team seeming to mail it in as well. I have now changed my stance. I want neither Ray nor Sherrill. I would like to see Jim Johnson close games.

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Furthermore, when looking at his Career Stats Ray has pitched a total 149.1 innings giving up a total of 59 Runs. In games where he recieved the Loss he has pitched 11.2 innings and allowed 30 runs.

Take away those blow up innings and Ray has thrown 137.2 innings and allowed 24 runs which translates to a 1.53 ERA.

I think we can come to the conclusion that when Ray is good he is very good and when he is bad he is very bad. The key though is that he is very good about 92% of the time. So more than 9 times out of 10 when Ray gets the ball he has gotten the job done.

That's not a very good way of looking at things. You can take almost any pitcher, no matter how abysmal, and remove some fraction of their innings and make them look ok.

Take Mike DeJean, poster boy for awful Oriole relievers in history. He appeared in 37 games for the Orioles, and gave up zero earned runs in 23 of them. Or take Russ Ortiz, one of the most ill-conceived signings in recent memory. He had an ERA of nearly 9.00, but gave up zero earned runs in 7 of his 15 Orioles relief appearances. Or Jorge Julio, who was unscored upon in 42 of his 67 appearances in 2005... but who ended up with an ungodly ugly 5.90 ERA.

Even the worst relief pitchers you can find are unscored upon in half or 2/3rds or more of their outings.

And if you look at the really good relievers you see the other side of the coin. Take out Brad Lidge's worst single game from 2008 and his ERA is 1.29. Remove Francisco Rodriguez' worst three games and his ERA is just about 1.00. Take out Jon Papelbon's worst three and his ERA is under 1.50.

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So you are inferring he lied when he was saying his dropoff wasn't due to his injury?

Or are you saying what he is saying was true? Because if it is true, than that mean he just plain pitched like crap which is not good.

I tend to believe that to his credit he wasn't lying, which meant he had a dropoff in performance because he just didn't pitch well.

You infer. I imply.

Anyway, what I meant was that I don't think he wanted to use his injury as a crutch for his bad performance. Much like Jamie Walker refused to do this season.

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That's not a very good way of looking at things. You can take almost any pitcher, no matter how abysmal, and remove some fraction of their innings and make them look ok.

Take Mike DeJean, poster boy for awful Oriole relievers in history. He appeared in 37 games for the Orioles, and gave up zero earned runs in 23 of them. Or take Russ Ortiz, one of the most ill-conceived signings in recent memory. He had an ERA of nearly 9.00, but gave up zero earned runs in 7 of his 15 Orioles relief appearances. Or Jorge Julio, who was unscored upon in 42 of his 67 appearances in 2005... but who ended up with an ungodly ugly 5.90 ERA.

Even the worst relief pitchers you can find are unscored upon in half or 2/3rds or more of their outings.

And if you look at the really good relievers you see the other side of the coin. Take out Brad Lidge's worst single game from 2008 and his ERA is 1.29. Remove Francisco Rodriguez' worst three games and his ERA is just about 1.00. Take out Jon Papelbon's worst three and his ERA is under 1.50.

I agree with you on this. It also supports that I don't think Chris Ray is the answer as the Orioles closer, nor is Sherrill. I see you voted other, which is what I would switch my vote to if I could. I presume you would prefer Johnson, like I now do?

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Okay, you have convinced me. If I could change my vote I would switch it to other. I don't want either one of them now, as I think 84% is pretty lousy. I would seriously consider trying Jim Johnson on the role. I think he could hit over 90% easily.

But the difference between 84 and 90 % for Sherrill is 2 saves! For Ray it's 3 saves over his entire career or 1 more save per season!

Saves are quite possibly the most overrated stat in all of baseball. Ray could quite easily push his career percentage to 90% + just by converting his first 4 save opportunities next season. So using that as the primary metric to evaluate the quality of a pitcher seems unreasonable.

Ray has dominant stuff as all his peripherals suggest. He needs to learn to control his emotions and avoid giving up gopher balls in key situations - two things that are quite possible for him to accomplish, if he's just given the opportunity to grow as a player.

If he gets back to 2006 form, he'd have numbers that place him among the elite closers in baseball. Even if he "only" pitches as well as he did in 2007, he'll still be an average major league closer (at a fraction of the average closer's salary), and every bit as effective as Sherrill was last year.

What is the harm in letting him have that opportunity?

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I agree with you on this. It also supports that I don't think Chris Ray is the answer as the Orioles closer, nor is Sherrill. I see you voted other, which is what I would switch my vote to if I could. I presume you would prefer Johnson, like I now do?

I don't really have much of an opinion on any particular name. I think the Orioles need to collect as many good, cheap relievers as possible, and take the one whose value would be most enhanced by piling up easy saves and make him the closer. Much like the O's tried to do with Sherrill in 2008.

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But the difference between 84 and 90 % for Sherrill is 2 saves! For Ray it's 3 saves over his entire career or 1 more save per season!

Saves are quite possibly the most overrated stat in all of baseball. Ray could quite easily push his career percentage to 90% + just by converting his first 4 save opportunities next season. So using that as the primary metric to evaluate the quality of a pitcher seems unreasonable.

Ray has dominant stuff as all his peripherals suggest. He needs to learn to control his emotions and avoid giving up gopher balls in key situations - two things that are quite possible for him to accomplish, if he's just given the opportunity to grow as a player.

If he gets back to 2006 form, he'd have numbers that place him among the elite closers in baseball. Even if he "only" pitches as well as he did in 2007, he'll still be an average major league closer (at a fraction of the average closer's salary), and every bit as effective as Sherrill was last year.

What is the harm in letting him have that opportunity?

Not controlling emotions is as fatal a flaw in a closer as lack of poise is to an NFL QB's sucess. I don't see Ray suddenly gaining composure. You either have it or you don't. Please refer to one Armondo Benitez, or Jorge Julio. Also, Daniel Cabrera has really made a lot of progress in this regard hasn't he?:rolleyestf:

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Not controlling emotions is as fatal a flaw in a closer as lack of poise is to an NFL QB's sucess. I don't see Ray suddenly gaining composure. You either have it or you don't. Please refer to one Armondo Benitez, or Jorge Julio. Also, Daniel Cabrera has really made a lot of progress in this regard hasn't he?:rolleyestf:

Jon Papelbon.

Hate 'em. But he sure isn't a cool cucumber.

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Maybe I am asking to much but I want more out of a closer who when he is good is very good and bad very bad. I want someone reliable all the time.

It doesn't exist, just for giggles lets do some comparing. A better method than innings would probably be apperances so will go with that.

Ray

145 Games

13 in Losses

91%

Marino Rivera

851 Apperances

49 In Losses

94%

Trevor Hoffman

930 Apperances

66 In Losses

93%

Brad Lidge

450 Apperances

20 In Losses

96%

Troy Percival

689 Apperances

42 In Losses

94%

B.J. Ryan

535 Apperances

27 In Losses

95%

Joe Nathan

463 Apperances

20 In Losses

96%

K Rod

408 Apperances

17 In Losses

96%

So basically the top closers in the game (Some are/will be all-time greats) get it done (Saves, Wins, Holds etc.) 93-96 times of of 100. Ray as a 23-25 year old is getting it done 91 times out of 100. Sounds pretty reliable to me.

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It doesn't exist, just for giggles lets do some comparing. A better method than innings would probably be apperances so will go with that.

Ray

145 Games

13 in Losses

91%

Marino Rivera

851 Apperances

49 In Losses

94%

Trevor Hoffman

930 Apperances

66 In Losses

93%

Brad Lidge

450 Apperances

20 In Losses

96%

Troy Percival

689 Apperances

42 In Losses

94%

B.J. Ryan

535 Apperances

27 In Losses

95%

Joe Nathan

463 Apperances

20 In Losses

96%

K Rod

408 Apperances

17 In Losses

96%

So basically the top closers in the game (Some are/will be all-time greats) get it done (Saves, Wins, Holds etc.) 93-96 times of of 100. Ray as a 23-25 year old is getting it done 91 times out of 100. Sounds pretty reliable to me.

What where the others doing at Ray's age? That might be a better comparison. Plus, I think Ray regressed which is not good. He should be getting better not worse with experience.

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What where the others doing at Ray's age? That might be a better comparison. Plus, I think Ray regressed which is not good. He should be getting better not worse with experience.

There's a big difference b/t regressing and not having as good of a season b/c you're pitching injured.

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