2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[waroriole]

Good Orioles centric interview with Jim Callis:

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2022/07/01/mlb-coms-jim-callis-breaks-orioles-choices-1st-pick/

[Frobby]

Several interesting bits there.  I thought the Robinson Cano comp for Termarr Johnson was interesting.  Also noted his take on the 2021 draft:

“Lasts  year’s draft, we’ll see. They saved a lot of money on Cowser. The guy they wanted at 41 didn’t get to them. [Second baseman] Connor Norby, I like him. He could be a big league regular. I don’t think they made the best use of their money last year is a way of putting it. Had they knew that [outfielder] Jud Fabian wasn’t going to get there at 41, would they still have done a deal with Colton Cowser because Norby, he was slightly under slot and they just kind of spread it around

“I feel like the jury’s out on the 2021 draft compared to what they got.”

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Several interesting bits there.  I thought the Robinson Cano comp for Termarr Johnson was interesting.  Also noted his take on the 2021 draft:

“Lasts  year’s draft, we’ll see. They saved a lot of money on Cowser. The guy they wanted at 41 didn’t get to them. [Second baseman] Connor Norby, I like him. He could be a big league regular. I don’t think they made the best use of their money last year is a way of putting it. Had they knew that [outfielder] Jud Fabian wasn’t going to get there at 41, would they still have done a deal with Colton Cowser because Norby, he was slightly under slot and they just kind of spread it around

“I feel like the jury’s out on the 2021 draft compared to what they got.”

A perfect summation of why the underslot/overslot thought is so poor.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A perfect summation of why the underslot/overslot thought is so poor.

The question left unanswered is if they would have still taken Cowser if they knew Fabian was not going to be there.   Did they think Cowser + Fabian was greater than Lawler + slot at next pick?     Or did they just like Cowser more than Lawlar and whoever?

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A perfect summation of why the underslot/overslot thought is so poor.

Not really, because for every example of it not working out there are examples of where the underslot/overslot thought is the opposite of a poor thought.  Kind of like when Elias was part of the approach of going way underslot on Correa and landing Lance McCullers with the savings.  While I'm not confident that we'll look back at 2021 and be able to say it was the right call (making a leap and assuming it would have been Lawlar instead) I'm cautiously optimistic that it will end up being clearly the right thought with the 2020 draft.  At this point I preefer having   Kjerstad+Mayo+Baulmer in the system over Lacy or Martin.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Not really, because for every example of it not working out there are examples of where the underslot/overslot thought is the opposite of a poor thought.  Kind of like when Elias was part of the approach of going way underslot on Correa and landing Lance McCullers with the savings.  While I'm not confident that we'll look back at 2021 and be able to say it was the right call (making a leap and assuming it would have been Lawlar instead) I'm cautiously optimistic that it will end up being clearly the right thought with the 2020 draft.  At this point I preefer having   Kjerstad+Mayo+Baulmer in the system over Lacy or Martin.

Elias could have picked Buxton and still had McCullers.  People are acting like going slot means we have no money left.  It’s wrong.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A perfect summation of why the underslot/overslot thought is so poor.

I think it’s a bad idea to bank on one particular player being there when your next pick comes around.  If the O’s employed a strategy because they had their hearts set on Nick Bitsko (2020) or Jud Fabian (2021), that would be foolish IMO.  But I doubt that was the Orioles’ thinking, regardless of what Callis thinks.   I don’t doubt that those guys were seen as preferable targets if available, but I don’t think they were exclusive targets.

Bitsko, by the way, has struggled a bit in the FCL.  Three short stints, got hit hard in the first two but did well his last time out.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think it’s a bad idea to bank on one particular player being there when your next pick comes around.  If the O’s employed a strategy because they had their hearts set on Nick Bitsko (2020) or Jud Fabian (2021), that would be foolish IMO.  But I doubt that was the Orioles’ thinking, regardless of what Callis thinks.   I don’t doubt that those guys were seen as preferable targets if available, but I don’t think they were exclusive targets.

Bitsko, by the way, has struggled a bit in the FCL.  Three short stints, got hit hard in the first two but did well his last time out.  
 

Sure you have backup plans.

But they are your backup plan and not your primary plan for a reason.

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure you have backup plans.

But they are your backup plan and not your primary plan for a reason.

 

Fine.  But I don’t think you go to the underslot strategy if you feel that if your primary 2nd target isn’t available you’ll regret not going BPA with your top pick.  You only do it if you think you’ll have other really good options for deploying the underslot savings.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Fine.  But I don’t think you go to the underslot strategy if you feel that if your primary 2nd target isn’t available you’ll regret not going BPA with your top pick.  You only do it if you think you’ll have other really good options for deploying the underslot savings.  

I agree.

Does Elias?

He seems overly fond of the strategy.

[geschinger]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias could have picked Buxton and still had McCullers.  People are acting like going slot means we have no money left.  It’s wrong.

It's not wrong.  The vast majority of examples of teams being able to go +1m over slot has required underslot in round 1.  There is no way the Orioles have Mayo and Baulmer in the system if they had given Austin Martin $7m - there would have been no money left.  

The Astros could have still gone overslot to the extent they did for Brett Philips, but no, they would not have been able to have still landed McCullers had they not gone underslot for Correa.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It's not wrong.  The vast majority of examples of teams being able to go +1m over slot has required underslot in round 1.  There is no way the Orioles have Mayo and Baulmer in the system if they had given Austin Martin $7m - there would have been no money left.  

The Astros could have still gone overslot to the extent they did for Brett Philips, but no, they would not have been able to have still landed McCullers had they not gone underslot for Correa.  

It’s absolutely wrong.  The Astros absolutely could have drafted Buxton and still had McCullers.  Saying they couldn’t is just wrong.  There isn’t an ounce of truth to it.

The Astros has a bonus pool of 11.2M. If they had taken Buxton, who signed for 6M (200k less than slot value).  If they taken Buxton and paid him full slot(7.2M), which they wouldn’t have had to do but just say they did, they still could have signed McCullers(who got 2.5M) and still would have had 1.5M left plus whatever overage they wanted.  
 

So yea, they factually and mathematically could have signed Buxton and McCullers.  
 

The Orioles could give player X full slot this year and still have another 8.1M left.  They could have any player they want with the next pick and perhaps even the pick after that.

Sure, they may be punting the rest of the draft but spending 8.8M for a player stops them from nothing with their next pick..just as it wouldn’t have stopped the Astros from taking McCullers.  

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias could have picked Buxton and still had McCullers.  People are acting like going slot means we have no money left.  It’s wrong.

That depends on what Buxton would have signed for it he went #1.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree.

Does Elias?

He seems overly fond of the strategy.

I think Elias is a very smart, analytical, careful guy.  I’m very confident that he and his staff have done more research, analysis and detailed thinking on this topic than everyone on the Hangout combined.  I’m not saying his strategies are always right or that he’s infallible — I’m saying he’s not just winging it and employing uninformed strategies.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

That depends on what Buxton would have signed for it he went #1.

True, the allure of going 1-1 might have caused him to lower his demand.

Good point.