Trade Cabrera NOW!!!

[Mackus]

Why? Do you think we compete in 08 with Tex?

And, maybe more importantly, do you think we can ONLY compete in 08 with Tex?

I think we can extend Tex, if not now than once he becomes a FA, and I think our chances of signing him are better if he plays here first, as Angelos will not want to let him leave once having him in the fold. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an 7/$140M contract for him after next season from PA.

And even if we do lose him, I think the two picks are more valuable than Cabrera, although probably not as good if you add in Hoey and Liz, but having Tex and (in theory) being more likely to resign him even things out.

[tim27]

AAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

Statements like this show a lack of understanding about BABIP. Good pitchers don't have better BABIP than bad pitchers. Pitchers on good defensive teams do, but given the same defense, the average BABIP will be roughly the same for #1s and #5s. Thats why the stat exists! To show when a pitcher is getting more help from his defense or lady luck than another guy. There may be a very slight advantage for the better pitchers, but the amount of control a pitcher has over whether a batted ball becomes a hit or not is very low. It gets lost in the noise.

Sure, a pitcher's babip is not as calm as his k rate or bb rate but he does exert some control over it. I think somebody last night showed that good pitcher's, I think he used Santana, Clemens and somebody else, do consistently post babip lower than league average. Am I wrong about this?

[Mackus]

Sure, a pitcher's babip is not as calm as his k rate or bb rate but he does exert some control over it. I think somebody last night showed that good pitcher's, I think he used Santana, Clemens and somebody else, do consistently post babip lower than league average. Am I wrong about this?

I don't know that there is much use in comparing to the super elite guys, but I would believe that better pitchers have slightly lower BABIP, but again, nothing that would come even close to justifying how low Guthrie's is. The chart I showed before shows the BABIP for each count, better pitchers spend more time in the more favorable counts, but there still isn't a lot of difference in the counts other than 3-0 and 0-2. I don't know for sure, but my guess would be that "good pitchers" average BABIP is probably about .285-.290 where "bad pitchers" are closer to the .300-.310 range. You'll get outliers over the course of a season, but over the course of many play-seasons, the averages are gonna be in that range, so if a guy is in the .230s, theres an overwhelmingly good chance that he won't be able to repeat that for long.

[tim27]

I think we can extend Tex, if not now than once he becomes a FA, and I think our chances of signing him are better if he plays here first, as Angelos will not want to let him leave once having him in the fold. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an 7/$140M contract for him after next season from PA.

And even if we do lose him, I think the two picks are more valuable than Cabrera, although probably not as good if you add in Hoey and Liz, but having Tex and (in theory) being more likely to resign him even things out.

This is where I differ. If he isn't going to sign an extension- which he won't- then I don't see why he is more likely to sign here as a FA because he plays here in 08. Please explain why this is the case. A lot of other people have made this exact claim: "We have a better chance to sign him in 08 if we trade for him now." I don't see it; explain the logic behind that. Hell, we're probably less likely to resign him if we trade for him imo. Right now he wants to play at home so we trade for him and he gets a chance to do that. Then we lose 85 games with him and he says, "F this" and goes a plays for a winner. There is absolutely no correlation between trading for him now and signing him as a FA that I can see.

BTW, I don't think 2 draft picks is anywhere near value for DC. You made a dispariging comment about him earlier which I quoted. Do you care to comment on why you think a guy who can give you 200 ip of league average era for cheap for the next three years is so devoid of worth for you?

[tim27]

I don't know that there is much use in comparing to the super elite guys, but I would believe that better pitchers have slightly lower BABIP, but again, nothing that would come even close to justifying how low Guthrie's is. The chart I showed before shows the BABIP for each count, better pitchers spend more time in the more favorable counts, but there still isn't a lot of difference in the counts other than 3-0 and 0-2. I don't know for sure, but my guess would be that "good pitchers" average BABIP is probably about .285-.290 where "bad pitchers" are closer to the .300-.310 range. You'll get outliers over the course of a season, but over the course of many play-seasons, the averages are gonna be in that range, so if a guy is in the .230s, theres an overwhelmingly good chance that he won't be able to repeat that for long.

I agree with this. But there is no reason imo to think that his babip is going to shoot up to .310 next year if he maintains his command. His babip is low; it will get higher. I just don't think it will be quite as drastic as some think, and furthermore, I don't think it will result in some skyrocketing era either. Bloop singles happen; bloop homeruns following walks rarely do.

[Mackus]

This is where I differ. If he isn't going to sign an extension- which he won't- then I don't see why he is more likely to sign here as a FA because he plays here in 08. Please explain why this is the case. A lot of other people have made this exact claim: "We have a better chance to sign him in 08 if we trade for him now." I don't see it; explain the logic behind that. Hell, we're probably less likely to resign him if we trade for him imo. Right now he wants to play at home so we trade for him and he gets a chance to do that. Then we lose 85 games with him and he says, "F this" and goes a plays for a winner. There is absolutely no correlation between trading for him now and signing him as a FA that I can see.

BTW, I don't think 2 draft picks is anywhere near value for DC. You made a dispariging comment about him earlier which I quoted. Do you care to comment on why you think a guy who can give you 200 ip of league average era for cheap for the next three years is so devoid of worth for you?

Re: Tex

I think he signs with us if we offer the biggest contract. I think Angelos will be more likely to offer the biggest contract if he already has him in Baltimore. So its more of an opinion of Angelos' mindset rather than Tex's, but the overall conclusion is I think us signing him is more likely if he's already in Baltimore.

Re: Cabrera

1) He won't be cheap for much longer if any longer

2) I don't think he can give you 200 IP of a league average ERA. I think he can give you 140 IP of terrible (5.50+ ERA) and 60 IP of a good ERA, and end up at about 5.00 ERA His declining K rate combined with consisten (ly bad) BB rate and declining (in a bad way) HR rate does not give me much confidence that he's figuring anything out. I trade him ASAP before his value gets even lower and we regret keeping him even more.

[Mackus]

I agree with this. But there is no reason imo to think that his babip is going to shoot up to .310 next year if he maintains his command. His babip is low; it will get higher. I just don't think it will be quite as drastic as some think, and furthermore, I don't think it will result in some skyrocketing era either. Bloop singles happen; bloop homeruns following walks rarely do.

No I don't think he's gonna have a skyrocketing ERA, but I do think him keeping his ERA in the low 3's is incredibly unliekly. I've been saying for a while now that I think for the next few years he'll be in the upper 3's to lower 4's.

And his BABIP will revert to about league average. Its just the way things work out, unless he continues to have the same sort of luck (and thats all it would be, a ridiculously low BABIP is not repeatable skill). I think he can settle into the .280-.290n range, but even taht would be a hell of a lot higher than it is right now and his raw stats (ERA, WHIP) will go up in response to that.

[tim27]

Re: Tex

I think he signs with us if we offer the biggest contract. I think Angelos will be more likely to offer the biggest contract if he already has him in Baltimore. So its more of an opinion of Angelos' mindset rather than Tex's, but the overall conclusion is I think us signing him is more likely if he's already in Baltimore.

Re: Cabrera

1) He won't be cheap for much longer if any longer

2) I don't think he can give you 200 IP of a league average ERA. I think he can give you 140 IP of terrible (5.50+ ERA) and 60 IP of a good ERA, and end up at about 5.00 ERA His declining K rate combined with consisten (ly bad) BB rate and declining (in a bad way) HR rate does not give me much confidence that he's figuring anything out. I trade him ASAP before his value gets even lower and we regret keeping him even more.

Re Tex and Angelos:

If Angelos is so desperate to have him on the team I don't think it matters if he is here already or not. Regardless, we are going to go after him hard after 08- and so are a lot of other teams. The highest bidder- we may only have to match- will get him. It doesn't matter if we trade for him now or not, and not one word that anybody has said has been anything but conjecture regarding this point. The more important issue is: Do we compete with him in 08? Do we only compete with him in 08?

If the answer to either one of those questions is no then it makes no sense to mortgage part of the future to get him.

Re Cabrerra:

Will DC remain inconsistent? Probably. However, over the course of the season, he will end up at or above 200 ip, with an era around league average. That is valuable. That is very valuable when he does it cheaply. As I said before the going rate for a pitcher like DC is 10 mil a year- at least- on the open market. He won't make but a shade over that for the next THREE years. For all the moaning about getting younger and cheaper we seem damn quick to ship out said options for local Golden Boy Texiera- who is neither. So now you pay Tex 12 mil next year and Cabrerra's replacement 10 mil without getting a whole lot better. Doesn't make a lot of sense imo.

[Mackus]

Cabrera's replacement is Garrett Olson. You pay him $300k next year.

Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Olson, Burres/Penn

I think Cabrera's upside at this point is a 4.50 ERA, I don't see him putting up anything better than that over the next couple years, and I think he could be much worse. He's over 5.00 so far this year and not showing many signs of improvement. I just don't expect a lot out of him anymore and would like to move him while his value is still as a guy with front of the rotation potential instead of a mediocre fringe starter.

[tim27]

No I don't think he's gonna have a skyrocketing ERA, but I do think him keeping his ERA in the low 3's is incredibly unliekly. I've been saying for a while now that I think for the next few years he'll be in the upper 3's to lower 4's.

And his BABIP will revert to about league average. Its just the way things work out, unless he continues to have the same sort of luck (and thats all it would be, a ridiculously low BABIP is not repeatable skill). I think he can settle into the .280-.290n range, but even taht would be a hell of a lot higher than it is right now and his raw stats (ERA, WHIP) will go up in response to that.

We pretty much agree. I don't expect Guthrie to keep his era at 3.00 but I don't think 3.75 is far off. And that is terrific imo.

BTW, the difference in h/9 of a pitcher with a babip of .230 and one of .300 is about two. Not nearly as big a deal as some are making it out to be. The #'s to watch re Guthrie are his bb/9: Can he keep it this low? And his k/9: Can he keep improving upon it and plataeu out at about 7+? If he can do those two things I don't give a damn about his babip; he will remain incredibly effective.

[Mackus]

We pretty much agree. I don't expect Guthrie to keep his era at 3.00 but I don't think 3.75 is far off. And that is terrific imo.

BTW, the difference in h/9 of a pitcher with a babip of .230 and one of .300 is about two. Not nearly as big a deal as some are making it out to be. The #'s to watch re Guthrie are his bb/9: Can he keep it this low? And his k/9: Can he keep improving upon it and plataeu out at about 7+? If he can do those two things I don't give a damn about his babip; he will remain incredibly effective.

Well the BABIP is going to revert regardless of what else he does, thats just how it works. But I agree that if he keeps his K/BB around 3:1, then he'll be very good, whether that is by striking more out or continuing to not walk anybody.

[tim27]

Cabrera's replacement is Garrett Olson. You pay him $300k next year.

And Olson- god love him- hasn't proven 1/10 of what DC has.

Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Olson, Burres/Penn

Two of those guys have hardly pitched at all in 07 and neither was real great the last time he was on a major league mound. Olson has virtually no expierience, and for all your angst about Guthrie, the guy who's success this year is questionable imo is Buress. That is not the kind of starting 5 that convinces Tex that this team is winning anytime soon. In fact it is one injury away from being crapilicous. How much better does Bedard, Guthrie, Cabrerra, Lowen, Penn/Olson with Buress in the pen in long relief look? From where I'm sitting a lot.

I think Cabrera's upside at this point is a 4.50 ERA

I think you drastically underestimate his potential.

I don't see him putting up anything better than that over the next couple years, and I think he could be much worse. He's over 5.00 so far this year and not showing many signs of improvement. I just don't expect a lot out of him anymore and would like to move him while his value is still as a guy with front of the rotation potential instead of a mediocre fringe starter.[/QUOTE]

Selling high is one thing. Selling high, along with other valuable pitching prospects, for a 1.3 year rental is another. BTW, DC isn't fringe; he's average. With the potential to be a lot more.

[Birds08]

Did anyone notice that DC rarely threw anything other than his fastball tonight? I'd say at least 90 of his pitches were fastballs. I was very disappointed in this. And if he is going to be throwing only fastballs, you'd like to think he would have much better command.

[Mackus]

And Olson- god love him- hasn't proven 1/10 of what DC has.

BTW, DC isn't fringe; he's average. With the potential to be a lot more.

I'd rather trade Cabrera than Olson at this point. I think Olson's remaining time in Baltimore will be much more effective than Cabrera's. Olson will be at least a league average starter IMO, Cabrera will not.

[tim27]

I'd rather trade Cabrera than Olson at this point. I think Olson's remaining time in Baltimore will be much more effective than Cabrera's. Olson will be at least a league average starter IMO, Cabrera will not.

DC already IS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What is so hard to understand about that.