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2021 Orioles #11 Prospect - Drew Rom - LHP

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Is there any chance we see him in Baltimore in the second half of next season?  

It really depends on how his changeup comes around. He has advanced pitchability and can bury his slider and curve on the back foot of right-handers, but I'd really like to see him develop that changeup down and away to be a consistent option against right-handers. 

If that happens and say he's dominating AAA at some point I could see him get September in the rotation to give him that taste before going into 2023.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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I know I'm a lot high on him than others, bit I still think Rom is going to surprise a lot of people, ala Zach Davies. Now Davies had a plus changeup and Rom is still working on the feel of that pitch consistently, but if you look, Rom has outproduced both Wells and Lowther at similar levels and age and Lowther was older at the same levels. 

The fact that Rom has kept his groundballs rates up as he moved up is a great sign along with missing bats, something Wells didn't do as well once he hit A ball.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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I like putting Rom here.   Frankly, I didn’t vote for this option because of the negative things Tony had said about Rom’s changeup during the season.   Looks like Tony still sees that as the big issue for Rom, but not necessarily an insurmountable problem.   Hopefully he improves that pitch and continues to have success next year.

It will be interesting to see if the O’s start him at Bowie or Norfolk next year after throwing 40 AA innings last season.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Seems likely that I will be very disappointed in the Bradish and Baumann write ups.

While Bradish and Baumann were college draftees, look at where they were at the same age compared to Rom. 

I think too many people get tied up in velocity with left-handers. Now do I think Rom needs to improve the consistency of his changeup and use it more, I do. But he's a four-pitch lefty who pitched well in his AA debut down the stretch once he made some adjustments to better hitters. He can throw all four pitches for strikes, drops down at times against lefties giving them another look, and showed he can get AA right-handers out along with left-handers at just 21 years old after missing a year due to COVID. 

He has that great mixture of getting ground balls and missing bats and his offspeed pitches have that 10 mph difference or more from his fastball which is what works at the major league level. 

I may be the most bullish on Rom than even people in the organization (kinda like I was on Davies and Britton) but the stats really back up this placement. Now, I don't have access to his spin rates and things, but his fastball gets a lot of swing and miss in the upper part of the zone so he either has good spin rates, or good extension or has some kind of deception that allows it to play up better up there. 

Saying all that, he's not going to get away with a lot of fastballs in the middle of the plate will need to spot out for it to be effective at the big league levels. He's still working on that kind of command.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

While Bradish and Baumann were college draftees, look at where they were at the same age compared to Rom. 

I think too many people get tied up in velocity with left-handers. Now do I think Rom needs to improve the consistency of his changeup and use it more, I do. But he's a four-pitch lefty who pitched well in his AA debut down the stretch once he made some adjustments to better hitters. He can throw all four pitches for strikes, drops down at times against lefties giving them another look, and showed he can get AA right-handers out along with left-handers at just 21 years old after missing a year due to COVID. 

He has that great mixture of getting ground balls and missing bats and his offspeed pitches have that 10 mph difference or more from his fastball which is what works at the major league level. 

I may be the most bullish on Rom than even people in the organization (kinda like I was on Davies and Britton) but the stats really back up this placement. Now, I don't have access to his spin rates and things, but his fastball gets a lot of swing and miss in the upper part of the zone so he either has good spin rates, or good extension or has some kind of deception that allows it to play up better up there. 

Saying all that, he's not going to get away with a lot of fastballs in the middle of the plate will need to spot out for it to be effective at the big league levels. He's still working on that kind of command.

This is what gets me:

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 45/45
Change: 40/45
Slider: 50/60
Curve: 45/50 
Command: 40/50

His future value is a plus slide and an average curve with average command.  His fastball and his change have future value of below average.

So in the future he is a two pitch pitcher with a couple of other below average pitches.   If that ranks above Bradish and Baumann the expectation for those two would be slim for them having any success in the majors.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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Just now, wildcard said:

This is what gets me:

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 45/45
Change: 40/45
Slider: 50/60
Curve: 45/50 
Command: 40/50

His future value is a plus slide and an average curve with average command.  His fastball and his change have future value of below average.

So in the future he is a two pitch pitcher with a couple of other below average pitches.   If that ranks above Bradish and Baumann the expectation for those two would be slim for them having any success in the majors.

He's still a four pitch pitcher who can throw of them all for strikes. Do you think all major league starter's have four major league average pitches or better?

If he can throw two plus breaking pitches with two slightly below average other offerings that he can throw for strikes, that will play as a starter. 

As for the other two, why would you think they have a slim chance of success at the major league level because i happen to like a young four pitch lefty a bit better? You'll have to wait to see why I have them where I have them, but I do think both Baumann and Bradish are big league pitchers.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I may be the most bullish on Rom than even people in the organization (kinda like I was on Davies and Britton) but the stats really back up this placement.

I’m with you on Rom, Tony, though I haven’t studied his arsenal in the detailed way you have.  And I was with you on Davies, too.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:


If he can throw two plus breaking pitches with two slightly below average other offerings that he can throw for strikes, that will play as a starter. 

 

This is what I did not get.  I always thought that to be a successful starter in the majors you needed three pitches that were at least average.      Otherwise the pitcher would end up as a reliever if anything  at all.

I am sure there are many major league pitchers that don't have three average pitches.  But that does not mean they are successful.

A starter comes to the mound and does not have his off speed pitches.  Its probably going to be a struggle that day..... at least until he finds them.   Or his 94 mph fastball is 90 today.   His off season speed stuff better be on or he probably will not last 5 innings.

Its been said about Baumann and DL Hall many times, they have to develop a third pitch.  If they don't they will be relievers.  I am guessing that means three average or above pitches.  Any pitcher can throw below average pitches but that will not get them very far as a starters in the majors as far as I have read.

Characterizing the  FV of Rom's two pitches as below average seems to only give to two average or better  pitches which I thought would make him a reliever.  And you don't rank relievers high.

 

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