The Mullins market

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One thing to appreciate is that Mullins’ 2022 season has a lot of value.   He’s only going to make $600 k or so (unless the rules change), and he should be worth a lot more than that.   Once that season is over, you can’t get something of value for it.    So, you have to consider whether it’s worth it to keep it.

For me, I just think that we should know what other teams would be willing to give up for Mullins now.   Nobody says we have to pull the trigger.   Sure there’s risk in trading him.  There’s also risk in not trading him.   And to evaluate that risk, you need to know what his market value is.   The only way to know is to find out from other teams.  

Ding ding ding. This is the thing. If Mullins was expensive, or about to be expensive, then I think there's a much better chance of a trade. 

But for now, he's part of a nice core that - IMO - Elias feels good about keeping together, in large part because they are mostly cheap as a group. 

We'll see, but to me it would be somewhat of a shock for Elias to trade Mullins right now. He's working to build more through the draft and development, and less through trading young assets. The young assets I expect him to trade are guys who are blocked or excess depth. Not blockbusters at this stage. 

[LA2]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Once again, what is wrong with a equitable return?

Do you go through life having to win every transaction?

 

A "blockbuster" trade is not necessarily lopsided.

[Moose Milligan]

My gut says it's a great time to sell high on him.  I don't think any of us think he can replicate what he did last year.  

Wouldn't be looking to move him, but would be listening.  

 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My gut says it's a great time to sell high on him.  I don't think any of us think he can replicate what he did last year.  

Wouldn't be looking to move him, but would be listening.  

 

 He might get better with a better lineup around him.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, LA2 said:

A "blockbuster" trade is not necessarily lopsided.

So the O's are sending pieces other than Mullins?

Or do you think a fair trade with the O's only sending Mullins could count as a "blockbuster"? 

I mean terms are mutable but I don't think he's got enough value to hit that threshold.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

 He might get better with a better lineup around him.

I'd love for you to provide some evidence that lineup protection is an actual quantifiable thing.

[wildcard]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'd love for you to provide some evidence that lineup protection is an actual quantifiable thing.

Go argue with yourself.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Go argue with yourself.

WTH?

You make a claim, I ask you to support it and you attack me?

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will bring more later.

When you don’t care about winning, there is no risk in the way you are talking about it.

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

WTH?

You make a claim, I ask you to support it and you attack me?

I didn't attack.  I just have no interest in arguing with you or SG.  Its not worth the time or effort.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I didn't attack.  I just have no interest in argue with you or SG.  Its not worth the time or effort.

You mean you have no interest in providing factual evidence to back up your wild claims.

Yea, I know you don't.

I'd rather not have to bother calling you out on your nonsense.

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ding ding ding. This is the thing. If Mullins was expensive, or about to be expensive, then I think there's a much better chance of a trade. 

But for now, he's part of a nice core that - IMO - Elias feels good about keeping together, in large part because they are mostly cheap as a group. 

We'll see, but to me it would be somewhat of a shock for Elias to trade Mullins right now. He's working to build more through the draft and development, and less through trading young assets. The young assets I expect him to trade are guys who are blocked or excess depth. Not blockbusters at this stage. 

Exactly. Trades generally happen when a player is worth more to another team, like a veteran with an expiring contract on a losing team. Then both teams can be pretty confident in getting a win out of the deal. Mullins is a for for pretty much anyone including us, so you are making a pure speculative bet that he isn't as good as the market thinks. I don't trust myself to make speculative bets and definitely don't trust the Orioles to do so.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Exactly. Trades generally happen when a player is worth more to another team, like a veteran with an expiring contract on a losing team. Then both teams can be pretty confident in getting a win out of the deal. Mullins is a for for pretty much anyone including us, so you are making a pure speculative bet that he isn't as good as the market thinks. I don't trust myself to make speculative bets and definitely don't trust the Orioles to do so.

Mullins has more value for a team expecting to compete in 2022 than he does for a team that is hoping to compete in 2024.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I didn't attack.  I just have no interest in argue with you or SG.  Its not worth the time or effort.

Asking you to support your claims is arguing?  Lol

 

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Go argue with yourself.

Well he's right.  I mean, support your claim dude.  

It's basic sports message board arguing 101.  Make a claim...if you get challenged support it.  Don't get pissy pants because someone asked you to back up a statement.  Sheesh.